April 18, 2024
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Poll: 5.5 percent of 2020 Biden voters now supporting Trump as race shifts to persuasion with cost of living rising
By Robert Romano
In the latest Emerson poll showing former President Donald Trump leading incumbent President Joe Biden by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent, a remarkable 5.5 percent of 2020 Biden voters now say they are supporting Trump in 2024. Comparatively only 0.9 percent of 2020 Trump voters say they are supporting Biden.
In the same poll 47.8 percent said they had voted for Biden in 2020, who drops by 4 points because a small percentage of them now say they are backing Trump who grows by 2.5 points from 43.4 percent.
75 percent of those polled said their cost of living was increasing, including 60 percent of 2020 Biden supporters. Only 14.6 percent of Biden’s 2020 supporters said the cost of living was easing, meaning not everyone is buying the happy talk from the White House about inflation slowing down.
That could be the key in 2024, which are Biden voters who regret supporting him in 2020, and want a redo.
Generally, for Biden, the problem is one of persuasion—and recovering lost ground. For Trump, the inflation presents an opportunity to capitalize on the general sense that the American people’s purchasing power isn’t what it used to be.
Similar problems plagued single-term presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush in 1976, 1980 and 1992 respectively who were unable to close that persuasion gap among disgruntled former supporters.
Biden’s problem is it is hard to argue with a household’s inability to get ahead amid high prices, interest rates and accumulating debt. Those are circumstances that have the ability to persuade just as much as any fiery speech on the campaign trail or political ad.
Personal income hasn’t kept up with prices, only rising 16.7 percent since Feb. 2021, while consumer prices are up 18.45 percent since that time.
And as November is now just a stone’s throw away, voter attitudes about their pocketbooks in general could be hardening, with swing voters saying they’ve had enough.
The bad news for Biden is that prices are not bound to come substantially down, especially with elevated oil prices once again amid global tensions the Federal Reserve stating that interest rates might be staying high for the foreseeable future.
At an event in Washington, D.C. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated April 16 that inflation was taking longer than expected to come down: “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence.”
Meaning, when it comes to persuading the American people that things are turning around, Biden could be in for a hard sell.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Cartoon: Farmer Joe
By A.F. Branco
Click here for a higher resolution version.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/04/cartoon-farmer-joe/
Alexander Marlow: Powell Speaks and States the Obvious—No Rate Cuts Are Coming
By Alexander Marlow
Jerome Powell spoke today from our nation’s capital and indicated what we all know to be true: The Fed has no business cutting rates at this time.
“The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” the Fed Chair said on a moderated panel at Washington’s Wilson Center.
He might be understating it here, but overall he’s in the ballpark.
He went on to say there has been “a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our two percent inflation goal.”
Now hold on. “Lack of further progress”? Last week’s inflation data suggested that Bidenflation is not just stagnant; it’s actually resurgent. This particular turn of phrase is like declaring that there has been a “lack of forward progress on my fitness goals” just after I ate an entire birthday cake.
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One person who understands this phenomenon is Black Rock’s Larry Fink, who said on Friday that the Fed’s two percent inflation target is way out of reach and that massive spending projects are largely to blame.
“We have restructured how we frame our economic policy. We have a trillion dollars of fiscal stimulus in the CHIPS Act, the infrastructure act, and the [Inflation Reduction Act]. We have very poor legal immigration policies that have restricted, and that is all inflationary in jobs,” the WEF board member stated.
It’s hard to ascertain how comfortable Fink is with inflation or all those massive spending programs, but he certainly isn’t denying they are what is driving inflation.
(If you are keeping score at home, it is Joe Biden and the Democrats who are to blame for all of it.)
“As Long as Needed”
Back to Powell on Tuesday. “If higher inflation does persist,” he said, “we can maintain the current level of [interest rates] for as long as needed.”
“As long as needed.”
That is quite declarative.
Powell has gotten gradually more hawkish on future cuts in recent weeks. Fed officials had forecast three quarter-point reductions this year; others on Wall Street believed we could see as many as six cuts in 2024. Powell himself has indicated that the Fed was “not far” from taking action as recently as early last month.
Yet, here we are today.
Clearly, he has seen the light, or, more likely the data, which shows increasing inflation and other macroeconomic numbers that indicate a politically neutral Fed has no business cutting rates now, and is probably looking at mid to late summer as the first possible opportunity to do so.
Being that this is the Breitbart Business Digest, we will state the obvious that all elements of the political and bureaucratic establishment in Washington would prefer to see Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in the November elections, and it will be easier for Joe to win if rates come down. So, look for politicians and media talking heads to try to devise some rationale to try to get the Fed slashing.
It will be interesting to see what talking points they latch onto, considering that evidence that cuts are the right move, right now, is nonexistent.
To view online: https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2024/04/16/breitbart-business-digest-powell-speaks-and-states-the-obvious-no-rate-cuts-are-coming/