IMF: U.S. to Grow 2.7 Percent in 2024 While Chinese Growth Slows to 4.6 Percent |
The United States’ expected economic growth this year is more than double (FT) the rate of any other Group of Seven (G7) economy, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections released yesterday. Meanwhile, China’s growth is projected (Reuters) to slow to 4.6 percent, down from 5.2 percent in 2023. Overall, high borrowing costs and increasing withdrawal of fiscal support are weighing on short-term economic growth, the fund warned (Bloomberg), while medium-term projections are their weakest in decades due to low productivity and global trade tensions. World economic officials are in Washington this week for the IMF and World Bank’s Spring Meetings.
The new projections reflect an upward revision for the United States since a previous IMF forecast in January, as well as U.S. divergence from Europe, where growth is expected to be more sluggish. The IMF’s lead economist wrote that the world had largely avoided the worst fears of stagflation following the COVID-19 pandemic, but that growth is still below potential. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to pose growth risks, the fund said.
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“The [world] outlook is brighter from just a year ago, when the IMF was warning of underlying ‘turbulence’ and a multitude of risks,” the New York Times’ Alan Rappeport writes. “Although the world economy has proved to be durable over the past year, defying predictions of a recession, there are lingering concerns that price pressures have not been sufficiently contained and that new trade barriers will be erected amid anxiety over a recent surge of cheap Chinese exports.”
“We’re headed for tension and conflict over trade. But I think I would say that this is almost necessary, because China has not shown a willingness to make the domestic policy adjustments that would make its own vision for its growth more compatible with that of the rest of the world,” CFR Expert Brad W. Setser said at this Virtual Media Briefing.
Join European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and CFR President Michael Froman for a discussion on the global economy today at 2:00 p.m. (EDT).
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Australia Unveils $32 Million Increase in Defense Spending Over Next Decade |
The increase is part of the country’s new national defense strategy, which focuses (Nikkei) on responding to a “coercive” China. Australia’s defense minister called the changes “the biggest reassessment of our strategic posture in thirty-five years.”
Solomon Islands: The country held (AP) a general election today in which opposition candidates called for a reevaluation of the country’s 2022 security pact with China. Vote-counting begins tomorrow with results expected to take several days.
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Taliban Suspends Afghan Television Stations for Violations of ‘National and Islamic Values’ |
An information official announced the suspension (AP) yesterday, saying Barya TV and Noor TV failed to follow journalistic principles and “consider national and Islamic values.” The Afghanistan Journalist Center called the moves illegal and part of an ongoing campaign to restrict the media.
Myanmar: Authorities moved (Reuters) jailed former leader Aung San Suu Kyi to house arrest to avoid heatstroke in high temperatures, a military government spokesperson said yesterday. Suu Kyi has been in prison since the military overthrew her government in a 2021 coup.
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Middle East and North Africa |
Dubai Hit by Year’s Worth of Rain in One Day |
The heavy rain flooded streets and caused flights (CNN) to be canceled at Dubai’s international airport yesterday. Such torrential rainfall events will become more likely due to climate change, scientists say. The United Arab Emirates’s normally arid climate means the area has limited infrastructure to handle heavy rain.
U.S./Iran: The United States is planning new sanctions (NYT) on Iran to target its “missile and drone program” in the wake of Iran’s weekend attack on Israel, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said yesterday.
On this episode of The President’s Inbox, CFR experts Steven A. Cook and Ray Takeyh discuss Iran’s strike on Israel.
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Ethiopia Aid Conference Raises More Than $600 Million |
Ethiopia, the United Kingdom (UK), and United Nations organized (Reuters) yesterday’s aid conference in Geneva. More than twenty-one million people in Ethiopia are in need of humanitarian aid this year due to shocks from conflict and climate change, the United Nations said. The United States was the single biggest donor, announcing (USAID) nearly $154 million in new assistance, though the pledges still fell short of the $1 billion the United Nations was seeking.
Kenya: Hundreds of medical workers demonstrated (AP) in Nairobi yesterday as part of a nationwide strike that has extended into its fifth week. The doctors’ union says the government’s salary offer has dipped below (BBC) the amount agreed on in 2017.
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Russian Missile Attack Kills Thirteen in Northern Ukrainian City of Chernihiv |
More than sixty people were injured (Bloomberg) in addition to the thirteen killed during today’s attack, Ukrainian officials said. The missiles struck apartment buildings and dozens of cars in the city’s center. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksyy said the deaths would not have occurred had Ukraine received more air defense equipment.
In this In Brief, CFR expert Max Boot explains how Ukraine could face defeat if U.S. aid falters.
UK: The House of Commons passed (The Guardian) a bill yesterday that would stop sales of tobacco to people who were born in 2009 or later. The proposal would effectively ban smoking for future generations by raising the legal age every year. It now faces approval in the House of Lords before becoming law. |
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Canadian Government Proposes Higher Taxes on Wealthy to Fund Housing |
Yesterday’s proposed rise in capital gains tax would affect (Reuters) just 0.13 percent of Canada’s population and add more than $14 billion to government coffers over the next five years, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said. The New Democratic Party, the coalition partner of the governing Liberals, said it would study the changes before deciding whether to back them.
Ecuador: The country started rationing (AP) electricity in its largest cities yesterday amid a drought linked to the El Niño weather pattern that has drained water at hydroelectric plants. Hydro makes up around 75 percent of Ecuador’s power.
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Biden Calls for Tripling of Tariff Rate on Chinese Steel and Aluminum |
The White House published the appeal in a fact sheet today, saying it would respond to unfair Chinese practices and support domestic producers. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to detail (NYT) his policies on the steel sector in a speech today in Pittsburgh.
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