It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Michael A. McCoy/Reuters

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

THE COMPLEX ISSUE OF ISRAEL IN WASHINGTON
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

“Out of intense complexities, intense simplicities emerge.”

The observation by Winston Churchill — in his written history of World War I — came to mind as we approached writing this week.

Even by the tumultuous standards of the 118th Congress, this week is already one of the most ([link removed]) complex ([link removed]) and pivotal ([link removed]) of the past two years.

Last night, House Speaker Mike Johnson announced he will push for four separate foreign aid bills, including funding for Ukraine, Israel, the Indo-Pacific region and, per our reporting, humanitarian aid. But that decision is also putting his speakership at risk, with now another House Republican raising the idea of forcing him out ([link removed]) .

Those dynamics are incredibly fluid. And in the middle of them, U.S. allies are waiting for aid.

This week let’s focus on one of them — Israel.

The U.S.-Israel alliance

The United States was the first nation to recognize Israel as a nation, in 1948. Here is what that alliance means in tangible terms today.
* The United States has long had a Memorandum of Understanding ([link removed]) with Israel, outlining the alliance. The latest is in place until the year 2028.
* Funding. $3.8 billion annually. The U.S. splits it so that $3.3 billion is for general military needs and $500 for missile defense.
* Weapons, in general. The U.S. currently has 599 different forms of weapons, training or other resources it is sending to Israel via the Foreign Military Sales program. And it exports more in other ways.
* Weapons, specifically. Those weapons sent to Israel include F-35 fighter jets and CH-53K helicopters as well as guided missiles, ballistic missiles, torpedoes, bombs and mines.
* Defense industrial alliance. The two countries have increasingly become not just allies, but partners in the industry of making weapons. The Congressional Research Service wrote in 2022 ([link removed]) that there have been “increased defense partnerships between U.S. and Israeli firms, whereby weapons development is done in Israel and production is completed in the United States.”

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American leaders are facing several difficult questions in the next few days and weeks.

How much additional funding to provide, and how soon? A Senate-passed supplemental spending bill set aside $14.1 billion ([link removed]) , but as part of a larger proposal that included some $60 billion for Ukraine. And the House has refused to bring that up, and it has also refused to vote ([link removed]) on Israel funding separately, at least until now.

House Speaker Mike Johnson announced Monday ([link removed]) that he’ll attempt to move foreign aid for several countries, including Israel, this week. (I snapped a photo of the one-page handout ([link removed]) of certain items provided Monday.)

The plan is complicated. The topline? Johnson wants to bring aid packages to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan to the House floor — but in separate funding bills.
* A quick summary. In broad strokes, the House will vote on four separate bills by the end of this week, one for each of the aid packages for the three countries.
* Wait, what’s the fourth bill? The fourth bill is an apparent mix of national security measures, like a proposal to seize Russian assets to help pay for some Ukraine aid or possibly a TikTok ban.
* How will this work? Johnson wants to follow regular order to the degree possible. Members get three days to read bills. Some amendment votes will be allowed.
* What’s the timeline for this? Timing is still tricky. If we get more details about Johnson’s plan by Tuesday, a final vote could happen Friday.
* Dollars? We are waiting for full details, but we know it is roughly $95 billion, which would mirror the Senate-passed bill from February.


Why doesn’t the House pass Israel and Ukraine aid together? Ukraine allies see a potential moment to pass both Ukraine and Israel aid. (As mentioned above, the Senate has already passed this. Both countries are waiting on the House.)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in an exclusive interview ([link removed]) with the NewsHour’s Amna Nawaz, urged the U.S. to fulfill its promise for the long-delayed aid to Ukraine.

“The ball is on your field,” he said. “Please, just make [a] decision.”
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Watch the clip in the player above.
Johnson’s plan — still in formation — seems to parallel the Senate-passed bill from February in rough funding amounts.
* This new proposal, as Johnson and former President Donald Trump have indicated ([link removed]) , is expected to give Ukraine aid in the form of loans, rather than grants.
* And any legislation that is *not* the Senate-passed bill likely would take weeks to get to the president’s desk, even if the Senate gets on board.
* That’s one reason the White House said it opposes standalone bills ([link removed]) for Israel and Ukraine aid.

Could Israel’s needs be Johnson’s way around Greene and other hard-line Republicans? Or is the complex debate around Israel too much to get enough momentum for funding?

In a “dear colleague” letter ([link removed]) Monday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., joined the bipartisan chorus that called for Johnson to move on the Senate aid bill.

“This is a Churchill or Chamberlain moment,” he wrote.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: Allies urge restraint ([link removed]) as Israel vows to respond to Iran’s unprecedented drone attack.
* One Big Question: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Iran's attack on Israel a “wake-up call” for the free world. What kind of action does he hope happens? The leader discusses with Amna Nawaz ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: What’s in Michigan’s push to expand voting rights ([link removed]) .
* Perspectives: NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter on the political implications of Trump’s first criminal trial. ([link removed])

JOHNSON TAKES A RISK
By Ethan Dodd, @ethandasaxman ([link removed])
News Assistant

The House could be speakerless again.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., has been threatening to remove Mike Johnson as speaker of the House since March.

After Johnson announced his plan for separate aid packages for Ukraine and Israel, she told us she has not yet decided on whether she would force a vote for his ouster.
* A reminder: Greene only needs one or two fellow Republicans to force Johnson out, assuming Democrats won’t come to his rescue. It’s been nearly a month since she filed a motion ([link removed]) to oust Johnson.
* The morning after Johnson unveiled his plan, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky said he’d join Greene ([link removed]) on her motion to vacate the speaker chair.


This should all ring a bell because this is how Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and seven other Republicans ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy in October.
* House rules allow a single member to bring a vote that could declare the speaker’s chair vacant. That was part of the deal McCarthy made with the GOP’s far-right faction to become speaker. Now Johnson is dealing with the consequences.


So what happens now? Greene introduced the resolution — a warning shot.
* She next would need to trigger her motion, something done by labeling it “privileged.” That would force a vote within two legislative days. If a resolution is not privileged, it’s not clear when it might get a floor vote.
* What about Democrats? They have hinted they could bail Johnson out, either by voting to support him or by voting present, which could lower the number of votes he would need to stay in the job. This scenario could be in play if Johnson puts Ukraine aid up to a vote.
* This happened before. A Republican House member nominated a Democrat for speaker in 1917, helping President Woodrow Wilson secure a Democratic-controlled Congress ([link removed]) while World War I raged in Europe. Today, Democrats might give Johnson, a Republican, the majority he needs to remain speaker, also over a war in Europe.
* Another possible lifeline. Donald Trump, who said the ouster effort is “unfortunate” because “we have much bigger problems.” He added, “I stand with the speaker."

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Matt Loffman, @mattloff ([link removed])
Politics Producer

Rep. Thomas Massie signed on as cosponsor of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s motion to vacate to call for the removal of Speaker Mike Johnson.

While it is just a threat for now, if there is a vote and Johnson is ousted, the 118th Congress and its Republican majority would have to find its third speaker in fewer than two years.

Our question: When is the last time three people have served as speaker of the House during one session of Congress?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Who was the first Cuban-born person to serve in a U.S. presidential Cabinet?

The answer: Mel Martinez ([link removed]) , who was born in Cuba and came to the United States as a teen, served as secretary of Housing and Urban Development under former President George W. Bush. Martinez later represented Florida in the Senate and was the first Cuban American to serve in that body.

Congratulations to our winners: Priscilla Smith and Barry Weinstein!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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