Dear John,

Welcome back. I hope you all had a restful Easter break because we spent it chained to our desks, making life difficult for the Government with our latest mega poll (more on that imminently). Parliament may be in recess but the politics has not stopped so let’s get into it…

MRP Catastrophe (for Sunak)

Those of you who read our non-Weekend Wire emails or saw any news around Easter Sunday will have found it difficult to miss that devastating mega-poll which showed the Tories sinking to a cataclysmic general election seat projection of just 98 of 650 seats!  

Yep, that was us. Guilty as charged.  Best for Britain’s massive poll and MRP analysis of 15,000 people was about as welcome for Rishi Sunak as a drunk uncle at a wedding with the splash on the Sunday Times front page meaning that it was all politicos and journalists across the country were talking about between mouthfuls of chocolate egg and hot cross bun. 

It resulted in hundreds of pieces of media coverage and was the subject of countless opinion pieces with the details being picked over across TV and radio. Here’s our CEO Naomi Smith talking about it on LBC.

The findings led to a fresh spate of infighting among Tories about getting rid of Sunak but there’s just one problem; most Tory leadership hopefuls currently sharpening their knives are themselves at risk of losing their seats! Were this poll to become a reality, the Conservative and Unionist Party would become an England-only party with no MPs in Scotland or Wales.

But Sunak tipping the Tories into the electoral abyss is just the tip of the iceberg. We’ve discovered so much more so stay tuned for fresh insights from our latest mega-poll!

More of the same

And we’re not alone. Hot on the heels of our massive MRP came similar findings from Electoral Calculus and YouGov  who also found that if Reform UK don’t stand aside, they could cost the Conservatives 41 seats. That being said, with Nigel Farage’s habit of saving Tory hides (see 2017 and 2019) we’re not holding our breath. People who want change must vote tactically to make it happen. 

Brexit Corner

‘Planets aligning’ for students and young people

Last week Sadiq Khan backed our calls for a reciprocal EU-UK Youth Mobility Scheme and this week we were equally chuffed when the European Union’s Economic and Social Committee urged the EU Commission to agree an ambitious Youth Mobility Scheme with the UK and to fully reintegrate the UK into the EU’s student exchange programme Erasmus+. 

The Government’s Brexit deal was unnecessarily cruel to young people and stole from them irreplaceable experiences to live, love, work and travel across Europe. Astoundingly, on Friday it emerged that the reason the Government turned down continued membership of Erasmus+ was because of the poor language skills of young Brits. If only there was some way young people could practice foreign languages by studying abroad.

These two policies will help reverse some of this damage, and that’s why we’ve been campaigning for them since May last year as two recommendations of the UK Trade and Business Commission. As our CEO Naomi Smith said, it feels like the planets are aligning in this area but we won’t quit until everyone, young and old, have their freedom of movement restored.

Borderline insanity

If only the news was as good elsewhere. Small businesses in particular were dealt a(nother) Brexit hammer blow when this week it was confirmed that from the end of the month they will be charged up to £145 per shipment on imports of plant and animal products including cheese and fish. This is on top of the additional expense from all the extra paperwork because the UK is no longer part of the Single Market or Customs Union. The changes will inevitably push up prices and reduce choice for consumers. Another Brexit win!

Child’s play

Nurseries have warned that the Government’s crackdown on net migration to the UK is fuelling a shortage of childcare spaces. The sector has lost EU workers since Brexit and is struggling to recruit British workers, who are “leaving in droves” due to low pay.

This time I’m serious

Fresh from another few days of being undermined by his party, on Wednesday the Prime Minister was keen to stamp his authority and show real leadership by… parroting dangerous hard right myths he probably doesn't really believe.

In a broadcast interview with the Sun (a week after Keir Starmer was invited on), the Prime Minister signalled that he could extricate the UK from the European Convention on Human Rights to facilitate his odious Rwanda Plan. The Prime Minister of course failed to mention that it was the UK Supreme Court that prevented the forced deportations, that the ECHR was the brainchild of one Winston Churchill or that leaving it would put Britain in the esteemed company of Belarus and Russia as the only European nations not party to it.

Sunak knows just how dangerous such a move would be, not only soiling Britain's international reputation (again) but undermining the Good Friday Agreement and the Brexit deal, both of which invoke the ECHR directly. The risk is less from Sunak and more from the lunatic elements within his party who while in opposition will be all too ready to seize this baton in their never ending relay race to undermine rights, freedoms and Britain's global standing.

Blackmail in the heart of Westminster

Westminster was left reeling on Friday following the admission from senior Tory MP William Wragg that he had been blackmailed into exposing MPs and parliamentary staffers to honeytrap attacks. 

Wragg explained how after sharing explicit images of himself, he was coerced into supplying the phone numbers of parliamentary colleagues to scammers so they could be targeted as well. Whether foreign agents or criminals, it is so far unclear who was behind the con but following an unqualified apology, it was confirmed that Wragg will remain a Conservative MP.

🫣 Cringe Column 😬

Before you go

And that’s all folks. I’m off to ASDA to see if there are any discount Easter eggs left. 

Have a good one!

Niall McGourty
Director of Communications
Best for Britain