DFP’s newsletter of our latest polls, memos, and memes.
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baby’s first head-to-head poll of 2024!
We don’t have the gift of prophecy at DFP, just the gift of polling. But we released ([link removed]) a new survey this week asking voters who they would vote for if the election were held today. The polling shows a tight race, with Biden up one point over Trump in the two-way race. Among Independents, Biden has a 4-point lead, with 18% undecided.
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This election is made a bit more complicated, however, by the candidacy of America’s most annoying nepo-baby: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. When voters are asked for their choice in a six-way matchup including RFK Jr., Biden’s vote share drops by 6 points to 41%, while Trump’s drops by 4 points to 42%.
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But don’t expect RFK Jr. to pull off an NC State-style upset — his chances to advance much further in the race are pretty low. Only 23% of Kennedy voters and 7% of other third-party voters say they are “definitely” voting for the candidate they selected, compared with 74% of Biden voters and 73% of Trump voters.
This won’t shock you, but we also find that voters aren’t happy with their choices this year. Biden is viewed favorably by 44% of voters and unfavorably by 55% of voters; Trump is viewed favorably by 45% of voters and unfavorably by 54% of voters.
With seven months to go, we can’t say yet what November is going to look like, but these results show that Biden and Trump are currently in a tight race, with RFK Jr. and third-party candidates potentially shaking things up more than New York City on a Friday morning.
Read the full poll here ([link removed]) .
Here are some other highlights from DFP this week:
Must be funny, in the rich man's world
The Republican Study Committee — which represents nearly 4 in 5 members of the House Republican caucus — dropped their 2025 budget a few weeks ago, and their cuts make Freddy Krueger look like he would be a reasonable Republican.
Cutting funding for Medicare and Social Security? Check. Cutting taxes for the wealthy and large corporations? Check. Cutting Biden’s $35 per month cap on insulin costs and cap on annual prescription drug spending at $2,000 per year? Check and check.
We polled these slashes to government programs and found ([link removed]) that less than 10% of voters support cutting funding for Medicaid (6%), housing assistance (9%), CHIP (2%), Medicare (3%), or Social Security (2%), and only 12% of voters support cutting funding for the ACA.
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Voters also reject the GOP’s efforts to roll back popular Biden administration prescription drug reforms. Seventy-nine percent of voters agree that “we should keep the $35 per month cap on insulin costs for seniors on Medicare,” while 77% of voters support capping out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs at $2,000 per year.
The GOP budget may contain some of the most unpopular proposals we've ever tested here at DFP, and dropping them in the middle of an election year is just truly another stroke of genius from the masterminds leading the Grand Old Party. Now it's time for Democrats to brand them for these unpopular policies! With this agenda, the election should not be a tossup.
Read the full poll here ([link removed]) .
DFP In The News
The Atlantic: Do Voters Care About Policy Even a Little? ([link removed])
The Daily Beast: Dems Trapped Between Israel and Gaza on the Campaign Trail ([link removed])
The Guardian:Almost 50,000 Wisconsin voters just told Biden to stop the Gaza war. Will he listen? ([link removed])
Business Insider: A new AI-powered tool could revolutionize how lawmakers are held accountable for insider trading ([link removed])
On Social
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Meme of the Week
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