More voters around the world may head to polls this year than ever before. National elections in 2024 are taking place or have already been held in dozens of countries which collectively are home to about 4 billion people—approximately half the planet. Among them are several countries where debates over migration are running high or where changes in leadership could have wide-ranging impacts on international migration patterns. The United States, where President Joe Biden will once again face off with presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in November, is the world’s largest immigration country and maintains unrivaled power to affect the global order. Immigration is a key theme in the election and political tensions have reportedly already affected policy, as congressional Republican leadership backed away from a bipartisan border bill in the Senate in part because Trump feared losing leverage if it were enacted. June elections in neighboring Mexico could also have significant impact on migration trends into North America, as my colleagues Muzaffar Chishti and Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh wrote last week. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is unable to run again, will be succeeded either by former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum or Senator Xóchitl Gálvez. Perhaps surprisingly, immigration is much less of a feature in that contest, even though Mexico too is seeing heightened irregular migration. Meanwhile, also in June, EU voters will cast votes for the European Parliament, which could shape the European Union’s approach to asylum and irregular migration, including implementation of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum. Migration has been a major theme in the run-up to the election, which could empower right-wing populists who have recently been on the march. A likely election in the United Kingdom could also have repercussions for the country’s migration system, and has become a topic of heated debate amid government efforts to revive a plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda and tighten legal immigration for workers, students, and families. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to win a third term in office this year, which could have implications for the expansive diaspora. And legislative elections in South Africa, the continent’s largest immigration hub, could pose a major test for the African National Congress, the party that has governed since the end of apartheid. Already this year, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele won re-election through what critics called a legal sleight of hand allowing him to sidestep a constitutional ban on presidents serving consecutive terms, maintaining his seat atop Central America’s largest migrant-origin country. Infighting in Pakistan, which last month re-selected Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister after a seven-month hiatus, could threaten the country’s ability to mend relations with neighbors such as Afghanistan, the origin of 1.9 million refugees and other forcibly displaced peoples. It will be hard to form clear narratives about the outcomes of these and other elections, given the vast numbers of people voting in different places all around the world. Yet with so many voters heading to the polls, a shakeup of some sort seems likely. Best regards, Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
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