Pandemic Watch News Brief: The News You Need To Know ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

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AVAC's weekly Pandemic Watch is a curated news digest on the latest pandemic prevention, preparedness and response (PPPR) news and resources.


A meaningful Pandemic Accord relies on *one* thing: Concrete mechanisms to ensure that every region of the world has reliable, timely access to drugs & vaccines in an emergency." KFF editor Amy Maxmen on Twitter ([link removed])
Table of Contents
• If You Are in a Hurry (#If You Are in a Hurry)
• Pandemic Accord Negotiations Continue (#Pandemic Accord Negotiations Continue)
• Call to Improve US Smallpox Readiness (#Call to Improve US Smallpox Readiness)
• Dengue Cases Continue to Rise Around the Globe (#Dengue Cases Continue to Rise Around the Globe)
• AU Calls for African Self-Sufficiency in Medicines and Vaccines (#AU Calls for African Self-Sufficiency in Medicines and Vaccines)
• Lessons for Future Vaccine Access from COVID Vaccine Access (#Lessons for Future Vaccine Access from COVID Vaccine Access)
• Global Cholera Crises Continues as Vaccines Run Out (#Global Cholera Crises Continues as Vaccines Run Out)
• Climate Change Brings Disease Threats to African Children (#Climate Change Brings Disease Threats to African Children)
• To Prevent Pandemics, Be Kind to Bats (#To Prevent Pandemics, Be Kind to Bats)
• AI Evaluates Audio Clips for Diagnoses of Lung Conditions (#AI Evaluates Audio Clips for Diagnoses of Lung Conditions)
There is growing alarm about the mpox outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Epidemiologist Jean Nachega tells NPR’s Goats and Soda Blog ([link removed]) (US): "It's just a matter of time, if nothing is done, that the transmission crosses the border in the African region and, again, globally.” NPR reports experts are alarmed over the situation. “First, the DRC is seeing record numbers. About 400 suspect cases are reported each week – the majority in children. Second, the strain of the virus that's circulating is especially deadly, with up to 1 in every 10 people who get the virus dying. And third, the virus is behaving differently. Scientists say it is not only surfacing in new areas and new populations (including sex workers), but it's also spreading in new ways – including sexually – and evading diagnostic tests.”

Unlike the earlier outbreaks in Europe and the US, there have been no mass vaccination campaigns in DRC. Health Policy Watch ([link removed]) (Switzerland) reports, “WHO officials said that they are trying to expedite delivery of mpox vaccines to outbreak-stricken DR Congo through talks with the world’s only two mpox vaccine manufacturers, as well as appeals for vaccine donations and negotiations with DRC officials. But speaking at a press briefing [last] Thursday, WHO’s Dr. Mike Ryan, Executive Director of Health Emergencies, and technical lead Maria Van Kerkhove were unable to provide concrete details as to when significant quantities of vaccines could be rolled out – and how many, in light of the global shortage of supplies.”

Meanwhile in the US state of Virginia, cases in the first quarter of the year are higher than total cases in 2023. Metro Weekly ([link removed]) (US) reports, “The number of cases of mpox in 2024 has already surpassed the total number of cases reported last year. Of the 2024 cases, six occurred in individuals co-infected with HIV, and all cases occurred among individuals that were not vaccinated against mpox.”

Activist and molecular biologist Joseph Osmundson writes in an opinion piece in Scientific American ([link removed]) (US), “new research published last month confirms what we knew then: a lack of testing led to a significant underestimation of the global mpox spread prior to July 2022. We should have had this genetic information about the epidemic then, and we should have it sooner in the next outbreak, to save lives and prevent unnecessary suffering…. The world’s response to the current epidemic in the DRC has largely been apathy and silence…. 218 children under 15 died of mpox in the DRC in the first two months of 2024 alone. In Los Angeles, all positive mpox tests are sequenced in full. In the DRC, PCR tests aren’t even used to confirm mpox once a patient has died.”

If You Are in a Hurry

* Read AFP ([link removed]) and TWN ([link removed]) for the latest on the pandemic accord negotiations. (Spoiler alert: it’s not going that well.)
* Then read an opinion from Mariana Mazzucato, Chair of the World Health Organization's Council on the Economics of Health for All, in The Business Standard ([link removed]) calling for heeding the lessons of COVID.
* Read a call from Hakainde Hichilema and Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in The Guardian ([link removed]) to respond to the global cholera epidemic as vaccines run out.
* Read Xinhua ([link removed]) on the African Union’s call for African self-sufficiency in vaccines and medicine.
* Read NPR's Goats and Soda Blog ([link removed]) on why and how we need to be kind to bats and other animals to stop new pandemics.


Pandemic Accord Negotiations Continue

Negotiations for the pandemic treaty are set to end this week and media reports indicate there is still a long way to go to reach an equitable accord.

KFF editor Amy Maxmen tweeted ([link removed]) , “A meaningful Pandemic Accord relies on *one* thing: Concrete mechanisms to ensure that every region of the world has reliable, timely access to drugs & vaccines in an emergency. Pathetic to see the strength of forces opposing this common sense outcome.” She was retweeting a post ([link removed]) from Senator Bernie Sanders who said, “Today I wrote to President Biden, with 11 of my colleagues, with a simple message as countries negotiate a Pandemic Accord at the WHO: We must act on the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and dismantle vaccine inequality. We must put people over profits.”

AFP ([link removed]) via France 24 (France) reports, “The final round of talks on a landmark pandemic accord faces a frantic last push this week, with countries still pulling in different directions on how to handle future global health crises…. European countries -- who led calls for a pandemic treaty -- want more money invested in pandemic prevention, while African nations want the knowledge and financing to make that work, plus proper access to pandemic ‘counter-measures’ like vaccines and treatments. The United States wants to ensure all countries share data and samples from emerging outbreaks quickly and transparently, while developing countries are holding out firm for guaranteed equity to stop them getting left behind.”

TWN ([link removed]) (Malaysia) reports, “Despite arguments from developed countries that sharing biological materials and sequence data should adhere to national and international laws, they resisted proposals from developing nations suggesting that users of the shared materials and sequence data should be identified and be subject to legally binding terms and conditions that will also include benefit-sharing commitments. These conditions are crucial for ensuring compliance with usage terms and facilitating fair and equitable benefit sharing…. While developed countries insist that access to physical samples and sequences should be subject to various national and international laws and standards, they are vehemently opposed to developing countries’ call for standard legally binding terms and conditions to be applied to the recipients of materials and sequence data, which are essential foundations of an effective PABS System (see below). Accordingly,
there is one set of rules for developed countries and another set for developing countries.”

Mariana Mazzucato, Chair of the World Health Organization's Council on the Economics of Health for All, writes in The Business Standard ([link removed]) (Japan), “As countries cavil over specific clauses in a draft pandemic treaty, there is good reason to fear that the document will be whittled down so much that it becomes useless. To ensure success, negotiators must heed the lessons of the Covid-19 crisis, and stay focused on the overarching goal: preventing or minimising outbreaks…. Centering the treaty on the goal of preventing or minimising pandemics would compel policymakers to see it clearly – and to abandon the myopic assumptions that have limited international and public-private collaboration. As member states prepare for the World Health Assembly in May, this imperative should be front of mind.”

Call to Improve US Smallpox Readiness

A new report ([link removed]) from the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine calls for action “to enhance U.S. readiness for smallpox and related diseases, as well as to improve diagnostics, vaccines, and therapeutics that could be used in case of an outbreak. The COVID-19 pandemic revealed weaknesses in the ability of US public health and health care systems to adapt and respond to an unfamiliar pathogen, as did challenges during the recent mpox outbreak to rapidly making diagnostics, vaccines, and therapeutics available at scale…. The report says U.S. population changes and advancements in gene editing and synthesis technologies have drastically altered the potential for a smallpox outbreak or attack in recent years. It is now possible to engineer variola virus, the virus that causes smallpox, raising the possibility of accidental or intentional release. Furthermore, illnesses related
to smallpox such as mpox, Alaskapox, and cowpox are increasingly found in humans, presenting the need for medical countermeasures that can detect, treat, and prevent these diseases.” Read the press release ([link removed]) .

Dengue Cases Continue to Rise Around the Globe

The National News ([link removed]) (UAE) reports, “Global cases of the debilitating tropical disease dengue fever are rising dramatically, with a number of Arab nations seeing a reported rise in cases in recent months…. Cases internationally are increasing, with more than 4.2 million infections reported worldwide in 2023, compared with only 500,000 at the turn of the century. According to the University of Washington's Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, the Mena region registered an 88 per cent increase in cases of dengue fever from 1990 to 2019.”

Jakarta Post ([link removed]) (Indonesia) reports, “Indonesia has seen a significant increase in cases of dengue fever and deaths from the illness as the El Niño weather phenomenon causes a warmer rainy season across the country.

AP ([link removed]) via ABC News (US) reports, “Puerto Rico's health secretary declared an epidemic on Monday following a spike in dengue cases. The U.S. territory of 3.2 million people has reported at least 549 cases so far this year, compared with a total of 1,293 cases for all of last year. The majority of cases have been reported in the capital of San Juan. More than 340 people have been hospitalized for the mosquito-borne virus, according to the island’s health department. Puerto Rico last declared a dengue epidemic in 2012.”

AU Calls for African Self-Sufficiency in Medicines and Vaccines

Xinhua ([link removed]) (China) reports, “The African Union (AU) has emphasized the crucial need to ensure Africa's self-sufficiency in the production of medicines and vaccines.” Monique Nsanzabaganwa, deputy chairperson for the AU Commission, is quoted: "’The African Union is firmly committed to supporting the development of a vibrant pharmaceutical sector in Africa. We recognize that access to safe and affordable medicines, vaccines, and diagnostics is a fundamental human right.’ She said the AU, in an effort to boost Africa's capacity in pharmaceutical production, has empowered the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to take the lead in public health in Africa.”

Lessons for Future Vaccine Access from COVID Vaccine Access

Adrián Alonso Ruiz and colleagues write in the journal Globalization and Health ([link removed]) (Ireland), “Using data on R&D investments, regulatory approvals, manufacturing and purchase agreements, and vaccine deliveries, we identified six distinct innovation models that apply across the 14 COVID-19 vaccines with more international presence from 2020–2022.” The authors conclude, “Each of the six innovation models has different implications for which countries get access to which vaccines, how quickly, and at which prices. Each offers different strengths and weaknesses for achieving equitable access. Our findings also suggest that Western firms had the greatest capacity to develop and deliver vaccines quickly during the pandemic, but such capacity is rapidly becoming more globally distributed with MICs playing a significant role, especially in supplying other MICs. Given the critical role of public support in enabling
pandemic vaccine development and supply, governments have both the capacity and responsibility to craft international rules that will make responses to future pandemics more equitable and effective.”

Global Cholera Crises Continues as Vaccines Run Out

Hakainde Hichilema and Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus write in The Guardian ([link removed]) (UK), “Cholera continues to take lives and now, after years of progress, it has returned with a vengeance, with 30 countries reporting deadly outbreaks since last year. Conflict, poverty, the climate crisis and global socioeconomic inequities are all underlying reasons why outbreaks tend to be larger and deadlier…. Zero doses [of cholera vaccines] are left, as 23 countries are reporting active outbreaks in 2024. And while more than 1 billion lives are at risk from cholera, pharmaceutical companies are not serving the cholera market due to its low profitability – a consequence of a disease that affects the poorest of the poor…. Poverty, conflict and climate catastrophes reflect mismanagement of resources, poor governance and failed leadership. Cholera is a mirror to the ills
of the world, and humanity seems to be on a quest to amplify it.”

VOA ([link removed]) (US) reports, “At least 54 people have lost their lives to cholera in Somalia in recent months. Nine of those deaths occurred within the past week, marking the highest weekly death toll this year…. The outbreak, which began in January of this year, is believed to be a direct consequence of severe flooding that occurred in October and November 2023.”

New Zimbabwe ([link removed]) (Zimbabwe) via All Africa reports, “Government has banned all church leaders from holding public gatherings during the Easter holidays at venues without running water in the wake of a spike in cholera cases, some of which have resulted in fatalities…. [Information Minister, Jenfan] Muswere said Zimbabwe has recorded 29 144 cumulative suspected cholera cases. This marks a rise from the 27,182 suspected cases, 2,734 confirmed cases, and 26,482 recoveries recorded on March 5.”

Climate Change Brings Disease Threats to African Children

The Standard ([link removed]) (Zimbabwe) reports, “About 45 million children in eastern and southern Africa are at high risk of contracting diseases caused by climate change, a top United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) official has said. UNICEFf regional director for eastern and southern Africa, Eva Kadilli, said the climate change crisis is a real threat to children through disease outbreaks and malnutrition. ‘In Zimbabwe, the El Niño phenomenon has disrupted rainfall patterns, leading to prolonged drought. Families are grappling with food insecurity, water scarcity and heightened vulnerability including to violence and exploitation. These challenges come at a time when the country is also responding to cholera and polio outbreaks, potentially leading to a severe crisis for children,’ she said.”

News 24 ([link removed]) (South Africa) reports, “Since the start of the year, Africa has recorded 44 disease outbreaks, contributing to 104 active epidemic emergencies on the continent, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) has reported. The headline diseases were cholera, measles, dengue fever, Lassa fever, meningitis, chikungunya, monkeypox, diphtheria and the West Nile virus.”

To Prevent Pandemics, Be Kind to Bats

NPR's Goats and Soda Blog ([link removed]) (US) reports the genesis of most pandemics is an ecological issue. “That is, it's due to the complex interactions between wildlife, habitat, climate and people. But there's been relatively little discussion about a spillover's ecological origins and how to stop it from happening in the first place.” Raina Plowright, an infectious disease ecologist at Cornell University “and a team of 24 ecologists, infectious disease scientists and policy experts have distilled their collective observations into three recommendations to prevent spillovers and halt epidemics and pandemics before they even start.” Plowright and her colleagues recommend ensuring animals have sufficient food, the areas where they live are protected and undisturbed and that communities are protected through education and protective equipment from
disease-bearing animals. “The proposed solutions are simple enough to articulate. But Plowright acknowledges that implementing them won't be easy…. Still, for Plowright, the answer is clear. ‘Nature doesn't stand up and say you have to fight,’ she says. ‘It's up to us to figure out a mechanism whereby we are protecting our future and the common interest of all.’" Read the perspective ([link removed]) in Nature.

AI Evaluates Audio Clips for Diagnoses of Lung Conditions

Nature ([link removed]) (UK) reports on findings from a preprint study: “A team led by Google scientists has developed a machine-learning tool that can help to detect and monitor health conditions by evaluating noises such as coughing and breathing. The artificial intelligence (AI) system, trained on millions of audio clips of human sounds, might one day be used by physicians to diagnose diseases including COVID-19 and tuberculosis and to assess how well a person’s lungs are functioning…. Yael Bensoussan, a laryngologist, is quoted: “There’s an immense potential not only for diagnosis, but also for screening’ and monitoring. We can’t repeat scans or biopsies every week. So that’s why voice becomes a really important biomarker for disease monitoring. It’s not invasive, and it’s low resource.” The researchers include a team from Zambia. Read the preprint ([link removed]) .
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