March 27, 2024
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
GOP Realigning or Seniors Leaving Trump? Polls Shows Worrying Shift Among Older Voters but Gains with Youth and Minorities
By Manzanita Miller
While we have been extensively reporting on former President Donald Trump’s significant increase in support compared to 2020 among working class voters, minorities, and young people, one group of Americans appears to be shifting away from Trump at the margins – seniors. Voters over age 65 have shown a shift away from Trump in recent polls that amounts to as much as ten percentage points compared to 2020.
Trump’s highest level of success in 2020 was among voters over 65, with the former President winning seniors by five points, 52 percent to 47 percent. However, several recent polls show Trump losing seniors to Biden by around ten points. The March New York Times/Siena College poll shows President Joe Biden leading with seniors 51 percent to 42 percent.
A new Marist poll shows Biden winning Boomers and Silent Generation voters by three and six points respectively after losing both to Trump in 2020. A recent Mainstreet Research poll shows Biden winning seniors by over ten points. Although as we recently noted, the same poll shows Biden losing voters under 35 by an eye-popping 16 points.
While the reasons for seniors shifting away from Trump are no doubt complex, there is evidence that factors such as Trump’s stance on Ukraine and concerns about democracy are contributing to the marginal shift. In addition, seniors see the economy as less bleak than younger voters do, and therefore have less immediate motivation to replace Biden.
It is worth noting the ten-point or so shift away from Trump among older voters is far smaller than the twenty-to-thirty-point shift away from Biden among young people and minorities. The shifts may be seen as more of a realignment within both parties. That said, seniors formed a key component of Trump’s base in both 2016 and 2020, and it is worth looking at the reasons they may be retracting their support.
First, seniors appear more concerned with the prospect of democracy being under threat, a key argument from the left since the 2020 election and throughout a series of legal issues that have plagued Former President Trump. Democrats have heavily pushed the narrative that democracy and by extension American life is “under threat” due to Trump’s actions and while most conservatives disagree, seniors tend to be the most concerned.
A Quinnipiac poll from August 2023 during a series of indictments against Trump, found that voters over 65 are significantly more worried about “the system of democracy being able to function”.
Over twice as many voters over 65 – 58 percent – said they were very worried about “the system of democracy” being threatened compared to just 26 percent of voters under 34. Forty-four percent of voters between 35 and 49 and 54 percent of voters 50 to 64 said they were very worried about democracy.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll also reveals seniors are around ten points more likely than middle-aged voters to believe Trump has committed serious crimes. Voters under thirty believe so at a higher rate than seniors do, however.
Trump’s stance on U.S. economic and military aid to Ukraine, another contentious issue, could be driving some older Trump supporters away. According to the same Quinnipiac poll, a greater share of older voters believe the U.S. is providing “the right” amount of aid to Ukraine compared to younger voters, a position held by many Democrats.
According to the poll, a full 49 percent of seniors – the largest share – thinks the U.S. is providing “the right” amount of aid to Ukraine. Far fewer – 29 percent – of voters under 35 agree. Among older Millennials and Gen X voters, around 38 percent believe the U.S. is providing “the right” amount of aid to Ukraine. What is clear is seniors are far more likely to agree with sustaining U.S. aid to Ukraine than younger generations.
In fact, comparing New York Times / Siena polling from last November to polling conducted in early March, a senior shift in favor of additional support for Ukraine appears to coincide with a shift away from Trump.
The November 2023 Times poll revealed seniors showing the highest level of support for additional aid to Ukraine, with 42 percent of seniors saying they “strongly support” such measures. In the same poll, Biden was beating Trump among senior voters by five percentage points – 48 percent to 43 percent – after losing seniors by five points in 2020. At the time, 9 percent of Ameircams were undecided.
Fast forward to the March 2024 Times poll, and not only has the share of seniors saying they strongly support upping U.S. aid to Ukraine increased by over ten percentage points, but Biden has gained with seniors. The latest Times poll shows 55 percent of seniors now say they strongly support upping aid to Ukraine, a thirteen-point increase from November. Biden’s support among seniors has risen to 51 percent, a three-point increase since November and a four-point increase since 2020. Trump’s support has dropped one point to 42 percent since November and a full ten points since 2020. The share of Americans saying they wouldn’t vote or would choose someone else has shrunk by two points to seven percent of the electorate since November.
It is worth adding that seniors side with Israel at a significantly higher rate than younger voters do as well – indicating support for maintaining U.S. involvement in the nation’s fight against Hamas is higher.
Lastly, while seniors have their own set of economic gripes, older voters are significantly more likely to see the economy as on an upward trajectory compared to younger voters. According to the Times/Siena poll, 40 percent of seniors compared to around a fifth or Gen X and Millennial voters and a quarter of Gen Z voters see the economy as improved compared to last year. While younger voters are struggling to increase their wages and acquire assets in the stock and housing markets, seniors on average own more assets with which to battle inflation.
The bottom line is that while older voters have been core Trump supporters since the beginning – and many still are – seniors align more with Trump on his original goals like solving the border crisis and restructuring trade than they do on foreign policy. A portion of seniors are more concerned about the future of democracy compared to younger voters, and older voters see the economy as improving at a higher rate, reducing immediate incentives to replace Biden.
As Trump has widened his support among historically left-wing groups including young people and minorities through his focus on non-interventionism and the economy, he may be losing support among more hawkish seniors. Whether he can correct course and court seniors back is yet to be determined but focusing on immigration – an issue seniors largely back him on – would be a good focal point.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Paul F. Petrick: Trump Could Pull Off The Greatest Political Comeback In American History
By Paul F. Petrick
Having secured sufficient delegates to become the first thrice-nominated Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon and the only person to bear the GOP standard in three consecutive elections, Donald Trump moves closer to completing the greatest political comeback in American history.
A Trump triumph in November would far surpass any previous political rehabilitation, including Nixon’s 1968 victory. Despite the effortless manner in which Trump dispatched his intraparty rivals, the road to a Trump Restoration remains perilous. Not since Napoleon returned from Elba has the global establishment been so focused on the defeat of one man. Luckily for Trump, he is an authority on comebacks.
“The Art of the Comeback” (1997) was published by Random House almost exactly 10 years after the same publisher released “The Art of the Deal” (1987). Sequels, being derivative in nature, are rarely superior to the first installment. But this one is because Kate Bohner is a better ghostwriter than Tony Schwartz. Nevertheless, the volumes are similar. In both books, Trump’s edifice complex is on full display. Each is essentially a photo album of skyscrapers. But “Comeback” is more relevant to Trump’s present situation.
“Comeback” contains the story of Trump’s return from near insolvency when the early 1990s recession devastated the New York real estate market. “Survive ‘til ‘95” was the mantra Trump put into practice via a complex restructuring of his business’ debt, much of which he had personally guaranteed. His back against the wall, Trump persuaded creditors that they were better off if he were a going concern. And when the economy roared back stronger than ever, so did Trump. Other developers were not so fortunate.
Trump acknowledges in “Comeback” that his financial troubles were compounded by his own mistakes and inattentiveness. Today, all of Trump’s financial problems stem from one very poor business decision in 2015 — his decision to run for president.
Trump was the closest thing to an independent president this country has seen. And boy, has he paid for it. Most politicians leave politics far wealthier than when they entered it. Not Trump. His net worth has fallen precipitously as his businesses have suffered sustained attacks by his adversaries. In one particularly vindictive act, congressional Democrats insisted that Trump’s companies be ineligible for aid from the Exchange Stabilization Fund under the CARES Act despite the devastation the pandemic wrought on the hospitality industry.
But it is not just Democrats who have it out for Trump. The establishment of both parties despise Trump because he threatens the status quo. If Franklin Roosevelt shook up politics with the New Deal and Harry Truman followed with the Fair Deal, then Trump is leading a political realignment called the Art of the Deal. It consists of an outright rejection of the bipartisan consensus on immigration, trade, and foreign policy, offering Americans what should have been offered to them upon victory in the Cold War – government in the national interest.
Trump has already risen considerably since his Jan. 6, 2021, nadir. This has only intensified the determination of his opponents, who will stop at nothing to keep him out of the White House.
When Alger Hiss sued Whittaker Chambers for defamation, Chambers confidently stated “I do not believe that Mr. Hiss or anybody else can use the means of justice to defeat the ends of justice.” The famous pessimist Chambers was too optimistic. A judge has already suspended Trump’s ability to do business in New York. And the hundreds of millions of dollars in judgments, fines, and legal fees that Trump is already on the hook for plus a slew of potential criminal penalties in cases still pending could make any electoral victory a pyrrhic one. Trump could re-take the presidency, only to find his business empire in ruins.
Fortunately, Trump is one politician who clearly is not in it for the money. Otherwise, he would have abandoned politics long ago. Trump even gave his entire $400,000/year salary as president back to the government. Despite going to great lengths to cultivate an aura of success, the true essence of the Trump story is coming back from adversity.
Having once categorized Manhattan real estate powerbrokers as among the “most vicious people in the world,” Trump now knows that his business rivals have nothing on his political opponents and the Department of Justice.
The reversal of fortune Trump pulled off a generation ago shows what he is capable of. But this time the stakes are considerably higher. If he wins, Trump will be more than a president. He will be a legend.
To view online: https://issuesinsights.com/2024/03/27/trump-could-pull-off-the-greatest-political-comeback-in-american-history/