Dear MoveOn member,

Spoiler alert: Politico reports that "independent presidential candidate
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling as high as the low twenties in a
three-way race with President Joe Biden and Donald Trump."^1 Or, as Vanity
Fair says more bluntly, "A Bats*it Number of Young Swing State Voters
Think RFK Jr. Should Be President."^2

Yikes!

Meanwhile, third-party-spoiler-campaign-in-waiting No Labels has pledged
to announce its candidate for the White House by early April—and Chris
Christie is looking increasingly likely as its nominee.^3

If you have any doubt about the stakes and who these third-party efforts
will help, consider that both RFK Jr. and No Labels are getting
significant funding from well-heeled Trump supporters.^4,5 This, in a year
when experts expect this election to be nail-bitingly close.^6 A year
where just a few thousand votes in a small handful of states could
determine the outcome. As one senior Democrat says, "If you move 7,000
people in a couple of these states, that's the ballgame."^7

The terrifying reality is that because of the Electoral College—and how
the math works for selecting the president of the United States—these
seemingly small third-party challengers are dramatically increasing the
risk of a nightmare scenario, in which a third-party candidate (or even
multiple third-party candidates) could throw what would have been a Biden
victory to Trump.

But MoveOn has a plan: Reach voters in key battleground states, educate
them about the stakes, and ensure that as many voters as possible vote for
Biden and other Democrats, NOT third-party spoilers.

With the RFK Jr. campaign building momentum and No Labels poised to
announce its candidate any day now, we need your help to put our plan into
action immediately.



[ [link removed] ]Will you make an emergency $9 donation now to help MoveOn
reach voters, help them understand the stakes, and defeat third-party
spoilers who would throw the election to Trump, before it's too late?



Stopping third-party candidates from spoiling the 2024 election is
critical work that requires patience and one-on-one conversations. And
there is no substitute for it. The great news is that young voters reject
MAGA by 20-point margins.^8 But we have a great deal of get-out-the-vote
work to do to reach those voters and educate them about the stakes, how
the Electoral College works, and the importance of voting for Joe Biden.
We're behind in our election plan fundraising, and we need your help to
catch up.

Don't wake up the day after Election Day and wish you'd done more. If we
keep falling behind, we could have a repeat of the year 2000, when
progressives had low energy, a third-party candidate won crucial votes,
and a Republican won the White House.



[ [link removed] ]John, we urgently need your help. Will you chip in
$9 to help fund MoveOn's efforts to have one-on-one
conversations with young voters—to ensure they are registered to vote and
are going to vote for Biden in 2024?



While only four third-party candidates have been able to win even a single
electoral vote throughout all of American history, winning electoral votes
is not necessary to impact the outcome in a presidential race. Third-party
candidates have helped change outcomes in presidential elections far more
often than you might think throughout American history, including, most
recently, in the year 2000, where George W. Bush "won" Florida by fewer
than 600 votes.^9

Had just a small percentage of the nearly 100,000 votes garnered by Ralph
Nader in Florida gone to Al Gore instead, Gore would have won the
election. It wouldn't have been close, there wouldn't have been a ballot
recount, and the Supreme Court wouldn't have had any recount to stop from
taking place.^10

In addition, the 22,000 votes won by Nader in New Hampshire were three
times the size of Bush's margin of victory there. If New Hampshire had
flipped to Gore, that too would have changed the outcome.^11

New Hampshire, a decisive state in the 2000 election, has only TWO
Electoral College votes. Two votes! In an extremely close election like
2000, just two Electoral College votes was enough to get Bush to the White
House. That makes it extremely concerning that RFK Jr.'s candidacy is
picking up steam in Hawaii and Utah; he's already gotten enough signatures
to appear on the ballot in those states.^12 He's also working on getting
on the ballot in key swing states as well.



[ [link removed] ]Will you chip in $9 right now and support MoveOn's plan
to help reelect President Biden and Vice President Harris through targeted
voter outreach? With your help, we will stop these third-party spoiler
candidates from throwing the election to Trump.



Not only do third-party candidates risk throwing a close election to
Trump, but if no candidate secures the required 270 Electoral College
votes, it will also all but guarantee a Trump win, through a different
process: throwing the election to Congress. If just 46 electoral votes go
to a third-party candidate in 2024, it could create a nightmare scenario,
where Congress decides the outcome of the election—which, given the makeup
of Congress right now, likely throws the election to Trump. Unless, that
is, we pick up lots of seats in the 2024 election, which is in our power
and which MoveOn is fighting to do.

To prevent a nightmare scenario, we're initiating a comprehensive campaign
designed to mitigate the risks posed by third-party spoilers and ensure
the election reflects the will of the American people. Our strategy
includes the following:

* Voter education and mobilization. Educating the electorate about the
implications of their vote is more crucial than ever. We're launching
targeted campaigns to inform voters about the dangers of a fragmented
vote, the importance of voting for President Biden, the fact that
there are no "safe states" (just like New Hampshire, with its two
electoral votes, was not a "safe state" in the year 2000, there is no
safe state to vote for a third-party candidate this year).
* Strategic outreach to surge voters. We've already identified more than
11 million surge voters—those who have shown they will vote for
Democrats but may not vote consistently. Four million of these are in
key states, and 1.5 million of those are contactable by phone or
email. We're laser-focused on those 1.5 million voters; if we can sway
even a small fraction of them to vote, it may be enough to tip the
election in our favor.
* Preventive measures against Congress determining the outcome of the
presidential election. The best defense against this outcome is, quite
frankly, to take back control of the House and win as many seats as
possible in the Senate, so if the presidential election heads to
Congress for a decision, Trump will not be guaranteed a victory.
* Efforts to create a unified front. Amid the current political turmoil,
the clarity and unity of the progressive message have never been more
important. If progressives divide their votes between Democrats and
third-party spoilers, it could lead to a nightmare scenario, and we
can't let that happen. That's why we're calling on every progressive
to unite and ensure that our collective voice is heard loud and clear
at the ballot box.



[ [link removed] ]Will you help put our plan into action? Click here to chip
in $9 or whatever you can.



Our democracy and fundamental freedoms are on the line this year like
never before. If we can raise the funds, MoveOn will invest more than $32
million to defeat Trump and MAGA extremists by persuading and turning out
voters.^13 But we can't do it without your help.

Will you help support MoveOn's election plan to reelect President Biden
and Vice President Harris, win back the House, and protect the Senate
majority?



[ [link removed] ]Click here to chip in $9 or whatever you can afford.



To engage voters, with your help, we will deploy our honed and most
effective get-out-the-vote method: "vote tripling." Vote tripling is
organizing voters to reach out to three of their friends or family, talk
to them about the issues at stake, help them make a plan to vote, make
sure they're registered, and make sure they vote. In 2022, MoveOn used
vote tripling to turn out 50,000 people in key states and districts who
otherwise might not have voted. That's an incredibly large and powerful
number of voters, since our country's elections are typically decided by
exceedingly narrow margins.

MoveOn has more than 25 years of experience in elections and developed
extremely impactful and cost-effective strategies to reach voters.

But one-on-one voter outreach is expensive, we're increasingly behind in
our fundraising, as are many nonprofits right now, and with third-party
candidates who could spoil the election on the rise, we simply can't risk
having to scale back our plans.



[ [link removed] ]Please: Click here to chip in $9 right now to power
MoveOn's game-changing election plan to fight back against presidential
third-party spoilers, stop Trump, and save our democracy.



Thanks for all you do.

–Mohammad, Sana, Alexis, Jaira, and the rest of the team

Sources:

1. "RFK Jr. and the ballot access wars," Politico, March 21, 2024
[link removed]

2. "A Batshit Number of Young Swing State Voters Think RFK Jr. Should Be
President," Vanity Fair, November 7, 2023
[link removed]

3. "Would Chris Christie challenge Donald Trump and Joe Biden on a
third-party ticket? Maybe." USA Today, March 21, 2024
[link removed]

4. "Meet the Big Money Moguls Behind RFK's Quest to Unseat Biden," Rolling
Stone, February 26, 2024
[link removed]

5. "No Labels Exposed: Here's a List of Donors Funding Its Effort To
Disrupt the 2024 Race," Mother Jones, June 23, 2023
[link removed]

6. "Electoral College Ratings: Expect Another Highly Competitive
Election," UVA Center for Politics, June 29, 2023
[link removed]

7. "Democrats Are Starting to Take the RFK Jr. Threat Seriously," New
York, March 20, 2024
[link removed]

8. "New poll highlights young voter interests for 2024," The Hill, March
4, 2024
[link removed]

9. "Here's How Third-Party Candidates Have Changed Elections," The History
Channel, November 11, 2019
[link removed]

10. Ibid.

11. Ibid.

12. "RFK Jr. qualifies for Hawaii ballot," The Hill, February 29, 2024
[link removed]

13. "NYT: MoveOn Launches $32M+ Election Program," MoveOn, January 26,
2024
[link removed]


Want to support MoveOn's work? The MAGA movement's book bans have forced
teachers and librarians across the country to remove books from their
shelves and censor what young people can learn. MoveOn is fighting back,
including by filling a "Banned Bookmobile" with books that the far right
has banned and driving it to key cities and towns to raise the visibility
of book bans, hand out banned books for free, and bring people together to
stop censorship. To keep up the fight against book bans and the MAGA
politicians who support them, we need your help.

Will you make a gift to power MoveOn's critical work?



[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------

PAID FOR BY MOVEON POLITICAL ACTION, [ [link removed] ][link removed]?.
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. MoveOn Political
Action - PO Box 96142, Washington, D.C. 20090-6142.



You can unsubscribe from this mailing list at any time:
[link removed]