Dear John,

Letters of no-confidence, leadership posturing and long nights of legislation. You could be forgiven for thinking we’re back in the days of Boris Johnson (shudders), but no. Instead, we’re unfortunately on day number 515 of Rishi Sunak’s tenure as Prime Minister. Hopefully there aren’t many more left.

The good news? You’re already reading our newest edition of Weekend Wire with more Tory trauma, Rwanda rubbish and General Election gibberish to talk about. Enjoy!

Coup D’Prat

The dictionary definition of  ‘delusion’ is: “a mistaken or misleading opinion, idea, belief or has delusions of grandeur”. They may have to add to this definition after this week’s performance from Sunak and his party, Despite the myriad of crises facing Britain at home and abroad and most polls pointing to the electoral abyss, the Tories still think more naval-gazing is what the country wants.

Last Saturday, the Mail splashed  “Plot to Crown Mordaunt as PM”  a piece that alleged that both right-wing, and moderate Tory MPs, have been holding talks about replacing Sunak BEFORE the next election. Further reports suggested that Security Minister Tom Tugendhat was also in the mix to become the fourth Prime Minister of this parliament, but given that both were candidates in that interminable July-September 2022 Tory leadership contest, and both were bested by Liz Truss, there might also be hope for Grant Shapps.

Rumours of deckchair shuffling have done little to win people over with current polling suggesting the Tories are on track for a heavy defeat when the Government actually decide to call an election - Sunak’s unconvincing bravado notwithstanding . A YouGov poll published on Thursday showed the Tories at Liz Truss levels of popularity at 19% and Reform UK on a record-high of 15%. So while the motivation behind this week’s palace intrigue may be more panic than delusion, the Tories should remember that things can always get worse.

Save the date

As mentioned in your last edition of weekend wire, when it comes to a General Election, Sunak has ruled out 2nd May, the date of local and mayoral elections and if these go as well as the last ones, his thoughts on future election dates might be irrelevant.

But that didn’t stop the Chancellor from teasing us on the subject when he appeared at a Lord’s Committee this week to talk about his budget. Unfortunately for Hunt, the lack of interest in his ‘meh-budget’ continued in this session with ears only picking up when he said “I can be quite open with you and say I hope I do another fiscal event this parliament.. if the general election is in October that will mean it's very, very tight”.

So if we take them at face value, something we are yet to recommend, there might be a chance to end this madness before Christmas. More specifically, the 17th of October has been suggested as the favourite. Team B4B notes that this date happens to be 'Global Ethics Day’ which would be an apt day for the country to pass judgement on this Government of famously high moral standards. Sometimes the jokes write themselves.

When should the PM call a General Election?

Procrastination Nation

The European Political Community, established in 2022, is an opportunity for leaders across the continent to have “political and strategic discussions about the future of Europe” and this year it’s taking place right here in the UK. Inevitably, the Government took the opportunity to endear us to our European friends by taking ages to confirm a date, frustrating governmental diary managers from Amsterdam to Zagreb.

This week Sunak at last confirmed it’ll now take place at Blenheim Palace, Oxfordshire on 18th July, a date which reduces the likelihood of a Spring or Summer election as, while spectacularly on brand for this lot, it’d be less than ideal to host a major international conference while the Prime Minister is also needed at a hustings in Brompton-on-Swale.

Meanwhile, in a letter from Foreign Secretary to the Chair of the European Affairs Committee, Lord Cameron exclaimed “Progress!” in a tone that suggests the former PM had to drag the current PM kicking a screaming into naming a date. Who is in charge again?

Table Tennis Tension

Something good happened in Parliament this week. No, really, the Government was defeated seven times in the House of Lords on Wednesday on the Rwanda Bill. You can read about the different amendments here.

This means the bill won’t pass for now and we are once again in the wonderfully named ‘ping-pong’ period where legislation jumps from the Commons to the Lords, is then voted out of the Lords, goes back to the Commons, rinse and repeat until one side relents or gets bored.

The BBC’s Political Editor Chris Mason has put together a good summary of the political situation around the bill, but the long story short is that things will come to a head when the bill returns to the Commons after Easter recess on 15th April. More on that next.

Beyond the 🫧Bubble🫧

Feeling blue at the 1922

Coming full circle, we close this edition of Weekend Wire on Rishi Sunak’s precarious position as leader of his party. 

 In what can only be described as a plea to keep his job, on Wednesday the Prime Minister was afforded the opportunity to address his backbench MPs better  known as the 1922 Committee. Supposedly there was lots of ‘desk banging’ at the meeting, which most people would think suggests support among his MPs but, as the wonderful Alex Andreou points out, this hasn’t gone well for previous leaders.

A leader with gravitas might be expected to show his party that he is determined to win, to get them pumped for an extremely challenging election but instead, Sunak reportedly said they could leave early for Easter. Very powerful stuff.

While the early holiday has been read by some as a feeble bribe to head off any leadership talk, it has ended up creating new problems for the embattled Sunak. With Tory MPs heading off on early holidays, the Government was unable to respond quickly to their defeat in the Lords over their Rwanda plan, pushing it back until after Easter. 

This makes it a little difficult for Sunak to continue waxing lyrical about how urgent the plan is and it’s fair to say Tory Peers aren’t very happy. Cue confusion as to whether Tory MPs are actually allowed to go on their holidays early, and we’ll have to wait until Monday to see who actually turns up. Such a well functioning parliament, right?

What else this week?

• You may have missed former US President Barack Obama turning up at Downing Street on Monday for a surprise meeting with Rishi Sunak. Because, well, he’s Barack Obama and allowed to do that. The former President also reportedly met Keir Starmer and David Lammy. Should he lose the next election, many predict Sunak may end up living in the US but unlike Mr Obama probably won’t be able to walk into the White House whenever he fancies.
• Finally, the Conservatives candidate for the Greater Manchester Mayoral Elections, Dan Barker, has defected to Reform UK. The Conservatives took this news graciously with a source offering “I congratulate Dan on going from being guaranteed to lose because of his mediocrity, to being doubly guaranteed to lose because of his untrustworthiness". Ouch.

That’s just about it from me in a longer than usual weekend wire. Enjoy your weekend!

Jake Verity
External Affairs Manager
Best for Britain