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BIDEN PLANS TO HALT RAFAH OPERATION AND REMIND NETANYAHU: ISRAEL
NEEDS AMERICA  
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Amos Harel
March 21, 2024
Haaretz
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_ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to talk about 'total
victory,' despite tensions with the United States – but the fact
that he's sending a delegation to Washington highlights the balance of
power between the two countries _

IDF soldiers operating in Gaza. (Credit: IDF Spokesperson's Unit /
Haaretz),

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to send a delegation to
Washington to present to the American administration the IDF's
operational plan in Rafah reflects the true status of Israel-United
States relations in the middle of the sixth month of the war.
Netanyahu threatens, on a daily basis, an invasion near Rafah,
promises the public a total victory over Hamas, and is proud of
Israel's independence to decide, despite tensions with President Joe
Biden.

But in practice, any idea that Israel will also defend itself with its
own forces (with a little help from friends) has been under a big
question mark since the terrorist attack of October 7. Biden has
lately been challenging it from every side – the decision to
airdrop aid into Gaza
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build a floating pier, some slowness in the supply of U.S. arms to
Israel and growing and increasingly public objections to a campaign in
Rafah.

The message was initially sent via Minister Benny Gantz, who visited
Washington early this month: the administration would not allow
Israeli entry into Rafah during Ramadan. That hasn't bothered
Netanyahu from declaring an invasion soon and at every subsequent
opportunity, but to tell the truth, the preparations are moving
slowly
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though operational plans have been presented to the prime minister).
In the phone call between Biden and Netanyahu early this week, the
president demanded that an Israeli delegation be sent to Washington to
discuss the planned operation. The prime minister decided to send
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser
Tzachi Hanegbi next week. Defense establishment chiefs only learned
about this from a White House announcement. Netanyahu neglected to
inform them.

 
U.S. President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in
October last year.  (Credit: Evelyn Hockstein/ Reuters  //
 Haaretz)
The fundamental change in the administration's policy toward Israel
occurred in late February, following the incident in which more than
100 Palestinian civilians were killed when a truck convoy reached Gaza
City. The president, who until then had demonstrated stoicism, lost
his patience in an instant. Since then, the bad news and insults from
the U.S. have been coming at the rate of one a day. But the most
noteworthy expression of this was issued in Washington, not Gaza, was
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's speech last week
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He described Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace and called for new
elections in Israel. Biden described his remarks as a "good speech."

The practical significance of the latest measures and declarations is
that the U.S. has assumed growing authority over Israel's security and
is applying a quasi-veto over IDF actions. Signs of this were already
seen at the start of the war – the president's speech in which he
warned Iran and Israel against opening a front between them, with the
participation of Hezbollah – and in the frequent meetings between
senior administration officials and the Israeli war cabinet
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which discussed operational plans in detail. Since then, Israel's
dependence on the U.S. has only deepened to a worrying degree.

The U.S. and European Union's public statements against an operation
in Rafah greatly restrict the scope of Israel's options. It's possible
that Netanyahu will try to shift the responsibility
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this onto the difficulties that Biden has raised (and, as usual, on
the generals and the left) to explain why the operation in Rafah is
delayed. Were it not for the wish to advance a hostage deal, the
administration might also reconsider its insistence on continuing to
veto proposed anti-Israeli resolutions in the UN Security Council.

Waiting for Sinwar

The international community expresses concern about an operation in
Rafah because of the 1.5 million Palestinian civilians crowded there.
But an operation's progress is also delayed because the army has not
allocated forces for it at this time. In fact, the army is currently
operating in the Gaza Strip with the smallest force since the outbreak
of the war – only about three and a half brigades. The operation in
Khan Younis was very limited, and most of the forces that fought there
have been sent out of the Strip for rest.

At the same time, the Nahal Brigade is holding the corridor that cuts
the Gaza Strip in two along the Gaza River, while the 401st Brigade
combat team is leading the raid on Shifa Hospital
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A fairly intensive operation is underway there, in which the IDF says
more than 100 terrorists have been killed and hundreds of suspects
arrested, including quite important Hamas activists. It seems that at
least some of the Israeli effort is being invested in damaging Hamas'
efforts to restore its governance in the northern Gaza Strip and
attacking people involved in taking control of the humanitarian aid.

 
Humanitarian aid parcels attached to parachutes are airdropped from a
military aircraft over Gaza City on March 20, 2024.  (Photo credit:
Agence France-Presse (AFP)  //  Haaretz)
The humanitarian situation, especially in the northern Gaza Strip,
continued to be very severe. The Israeli public is barely aware of it,
because most of the country's media have downplayed Palestinian
suffering since the war began with the massacre in the Gaza border
communities
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Obviously, Hamas propaganda invents and inflates stories, but the
crisis – which is described as verging on starvation in some areas
– is real and affects the reactions of the international community
and the growing demands to declare an immediate cease-fire.

Israel and the U.S. want to include this in reaching an agreement for
the release of the hostages, which would include a six-week cease-fire
and the release of almost 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for
about 40 Israeli hostages (women, elderly, sick and wounded). Reports
out of the Qatari capital, Doha, are numerous and contradictory.
However, the fact that some members of the Israeli negotiation
delegation are still there and that close talks are taking place -
that is, frequent messages are sent from the mediators to the Hamas
overseas leadership, which permanently resides there - indicates that
there is some chance of progress in the talks. That was a format
absent in the previous rounds in Paris and Cairo, where the delegation
quickly returned to Israel, usually without any real achievements.

 
Hamas political leader Yahya Sinwar in 2022.  (Photo credit: Hatem
Rawagh / Agence France-Presse (AFP)  //  Haaretz)
The final decider on the Hamas side, and possibly in general, will be
Yahya Sinwar, its leader in Gaza. It has already been reported that
communication with him is interrupted because he is in hiding for
fear of being captured 
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the IDF and Shin Bet security service. It turns out that in the first
deal, in late November, Sinwar had, at some point, lost patience for
dealing with the fine print of the negotiations and simply decided in
favor of the deal without listening any more to his colleagues living
in luxury in Qatar hotels. That could happen this time, too.

Hopes have been periodically raised through the war that a settlement
to end the fighting would somehow include the consent of Sinwar and
Hamas military leaders to go into exile outside Gaza in exchange for a
promise not to harm them. A senior IDF officer who recently visited
Military Intelligence's Unit 8200 asked the veteran NCOs, who have
specialized for years in collecting intelligence on Sinwar (the men
whom the army didn't really bother listening to before the October 7
massacre), whether such a compromise was possible. The intelligence
men answered with a sweeping no: they assess that Sinwar will prefer
staying in Gaza, even if that means gambling with his personal fate.

* Israel-U.S. relations
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* U.S.-Israel relations
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* U.S.-Israel military aid
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* Israel
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* Gaza
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* Palestine
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* Joe Biden
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* Benjamin Netanyahu
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* Rafah
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* Genocide
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* Ceasefire
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* IDF
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* starvation
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* Hostages
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* Hamas
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* Palestinian prisoners
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* Yahya Sinwar
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* Chuck Schumer
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* 2024 Elections
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* Jewish community
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* Two-state Solution
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* Palestinian State
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