The Inflation Dragon Is NOT Dead

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Unleash Prosperity Hotline
Issue #978
03/18/2024
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1) The Inflation Dragon Is NOT Dead
The Fed is expected to hold interest rates where they are when the board meets this week. There is still talk of interest rate cuts later in the spring or summer.

Are we the only ones looking at commodity prices?

They are headed back up again and over the last year diesel, cotton, gold, and others are up more than 10% over the last year with much of the rise in the last few months.

This is a LONG way from the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Commodities are our forward-looking indicator of inflation in commodity prices because these prices are recorded and updated in real-time (whereas the CPI is about 30 days lagged). Commodities are also an input into everything that is produced – so when the prices of copper and oil rise – so does the price of groceries, manufactured goods, transportation, etc.

What this is telling us is there is NO case now for interest rate cuts and if these spiraling costs continue, the Fed should keep selling assets on its multitrillion-dollar balance sheet and Congress should cut spending by at least 10% across the board.

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2) The Dismal Generation
Good news and bad news on Gen Z voters – those born between 1995 and 2012. The bad news is that they are pessimistic about the future and generally unhappy in their lives.

Lockdowns partially explain it, but it is still quite a paradox: how can the most pampered generation and the one that will inherit multiple trillions of dollars be so full of gloom and doom?

This generation has access to more of everything than any generation before – and they all won participation trophies for just showing up to build their sense of self-worth, and yet they are dour about the future as the latest Pew surveys are showing.

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We suspect part of it is the propaganda this generation has been bombarded with by their baby boomer parents since kindergarten. If the world is going to erupt into a fireball during your lifetime, and America is the source of all the problems in the world, what’s there to be optimistic about?

Parents have done a profound disservice – bordering on child abuse – for falsely scaring the bejesus out of their Gen Z kids. Or letting leftist teacher union members fill their minds with climate change blather on a daily basis. Why make your bed, study for a math exam, or brush your teeth if the planet is becoming uninhabitable?

There is only one silver lining here. This generation is more disdainful of politicians and government institutions than any other. They should be!

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3) Biden's Censorship Policies Headed to Supreme Court Today
We have been steadfast in the belief that tech companies are stupid to ban conservative viewpoints, but are within their rights to do so on the sites that they built and are their property.

Private companies cannot violate an individual’s First Amendment rights, only the government can.

But when government employees are directing tech companies to remove posts and silence views, in effect dragooning private social media firms into doing for them what the First Amendment prohibits them from doing themselves, we have a problem.

Today the Supreme Court is hearing arguments that the Biden administration did precisely that when they directed censorship of dissenting views on COVID, many of which were later proven correct.

Kudos to Eric Schmitt for bringing the case.

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4) Chart of the Day: Mortgage Rates 3% When Trump Left Office 7% Now
Last week we warned that homes were becoming too expensive for young families to afford. One big reason: mortgage rates have doubled. This is the key factor for the near doubling of monthly mortgage payments. And of course, the reason that interest rates are so high is that Biden has raised the debt by more than $4 trillion HIGHER than it would have been without his spending and debt spree. His new budget makes the debt situation worse.

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5) Gavin Newsom Election Strategy: Keep Counting Votes Until We win
Last week, we noted that key California races haven’t been decided almost a week after Election Day.

Governor Gavin Newson is now in danger of losing his signature Proposition 1 proposal to float $6.4 billion in bonds to finance new homeless and mental health programs. It is leading by just a few thousand votes so the Guv has issued an all-points bulletin: "We need help reaching out to *Democrats* who have had their ballots rejected..." Proposition 1 backers outspent their opponents by 15 to 1, so they have cash left over to urge California voters to “cure” their rejected ballots after they’ve been cast.

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It’s noteworthy how oddly specific about contacting Democrats that Newsom is. Shouldn't the Guv be calling for all rejected ballots to be reviewed? So that every vote is counted? How much different is what Newsom tried to do from Donald Trump suggesting that a Georgia Secretary of State from his party "find" 11,000 votes in the tightly contested 2020 Georgia presidential race? Donald Trump was indicted on those charges by a prosecutor who was slapped down for unethical behavior last week.

Mail-in ballots encourage unethical and shady behavior in counting. In 2020, election officials in swing states like Pennsylvania provided data about rejected ballots to Democratic activist groups while denying Republicans the same information. Liberals want to count and count the votes in any close election – until they are in the lead when they promptly want to stop counting.

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6) Somebody Has to Stop Eating?

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