Daily News Brief

March 15, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Russians begin three days of voting (AP) today in a presidential election that is all but certain to endorse President Vladimir Putin’s continued stay in power for another six-year term. Polls are open across the country as well as in illegally annexed regions of Ukraine. Voters can also cast their ballots online for the first time in a Russian presidential election. Credible opposition to Putin has been stamped out, while Russian authorities have cracked down on independent media and human rights groups.  

While Putin has suggested strong electoral results are an endorsement of his war in Ukraine, Kyiv and its backers continue to voice their defiance against Russia’s attacks. Yesterday, French President Emmanuel Macron called for Russia to retreat (Reuters) from its positions, and today, European officials are meeting (Bloomberg) in Berlin to discuss new war aid. Inside Russia, opponents of Putin and the war are reportedly planning to cast their ballots simultaneously (FT) at the polls in what they say is the only way to protest without the threat of arrest. 

Analysis

“Achieving [high turnout] could appear easy in an authoritarian system like Russia’s. It isn’t. The challenge is persuading the public to turn out in what is essentially an uncontested election to show their support for Putin and his policies,” CFR Fellow Thomas Graham writes in this Expert Brief.

“Forever Putinism has its vulnerabilities. Any regime that promises to live forever cannot let itself be perceived as failing,” the Catholic University of America’s Michael Kimmage and George Washington University’s Maria Lipman write for Foreign Affairs. “Putin’s presentation of himself as an omnipotent savior—the only one who can steer Russia’s destiny—thus presents a long-term risk for the regime.”

Pacific Rim

Yesterday’s ruling did not strike down the ban, but LGBTQ+ rights activists celebrated (Kyodo) it as a step forward in efforts to place further pressure on the government to protect LGBTQ+ rights. Opponents of the ruling say they will appeal it to the Supreme Court. 

Japan: Rival automakers Honda and Nissan signed (Reuters) a memorandum of understanding saying they will explore opportunities to collaborate on electric vehicles (EVs). Nissan was an EV pioneer with its Leaf model, but Japanese automakers in general have faced stiff competition from firms such as U.S.-based Tesla and China’s BYD.

South and Central Asia

More than twelve Democratic and Republican senators called for an increased target for the number of special immigrant visas granted by the end of the fiscal year to include an additional twenty thousand Afghans, according to a letter seen by the Associated Press. Some 30 percent of applications for such visas have been processed since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

This timeline traces the U.S. war in Afghanistan. 

U.S./India: A U.S. State Department spokesperson said the United States was “concerned” (Hindustan Times) about the implementation of India’s new citizenship law and that religious freedom is a fundamental democratic principle. The law has been criticized as discriminatory against Muslims. India’s foreign ministry said (Reuters) U.S. statements of concern over its law are “misplaced.” 

Middle East and North Africa

Senate leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) called for new elections (CNN) in Israel, saying in a speech yesterday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition “no longer fits the needs of Israel after October 7.” Netanyahu’s Likud Party responded by saying that Schumer is expected “to respect Israel’s elected government and not undermine it.” The White House reviewed (Semafor) and did not block Schumer’s remarks. 

U.S./Bahrain: The U.S. Export-Import Bank will provide (Bloomberg) a $500 million loan guarantee for an oil and gas project in Bahrain, citing the country’s energy needs. Some lawmakers and climate activists criticized yesterday’s announcement of support, which was five times larger than lawmakers expected.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Authorities released (Bloomberg) opposition leaders Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko ahead of this month’s presidential election. Faye is running against Amadou Ba, the former prime minister and preferred successor of President Macky Sall. Their release has boosted opposition prospects in the vote.

Somalia: Security forces “neutralized” (Reuters) people who attacked a popular hotel in the capital, Mogadishu, last night, a national television network posted. Militant group al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack, while the Somali government did not immediately comment. The hotel is known for hosting government officials.

This Backgrounder by Mohammed Aly Sergie, Claire Klobucista, and CFR’s Jonathan Masters looks at al-Shabaab’s operations. 

Europe

Iraq’s National Security Council banned (Al-Monitor) the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been fighting an armed insurgency against Turkey for decades to establish an autonomous region in Turkey’s largely Kurdish southeast. Senior officials from the two countries met in Baghdad yesterday and announced plans (Bloomberg) to increase business ties and military operations against the Kurdish group.

Americas

President Javier Milei issued the decree in December to change or remove more than three hundred regulations, but many lawmakers said such changes should be enacted (FT) as legislation rather than decree. It will be struck down if it also loses a vote in the lower house of Congress, where Milei has only 15 percent of seats.

This Backgrounder by CFR’s Diana Roy outlines Argentina’s struggle for economic stability. 

U.S./Nicaragua: Washington will restrict the import and export of U.S.-sourced weapons between the United States and Nicaragua, the State Department announced yesterday. It cited the Nicaraguan government’s “brutal repression” of its people.

United States

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said he will urge (NYT) President Joe Biden to move down the path for peace in the Gaza Strip during today’s visit. Washington remains “laser focused” on trying to reach a temporary cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war, White House spokesperson John Kirby said yesterday. 

Friday Editor’s Pick

The Associated Press captures in photographs the growing pull of the city in Vietnam’s rural communities as climate change increasingly threatens their livelihoods.

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