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Sequels rarely succeed like the original. And if the original stunk, audiences avoid the follow-up like a bad rash.
That’s where America finds itself today. Nobody liked the first Trump-Biden contest, and voters dread the sequel. The media and the candidates will hype it, but no marketing push will boost the box office. Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the voting booth, you get “Krush Hope 2: Electoral Boogaloo.” And this time, it’s personal.
According to the FiveThirtyEight average, Trump has a favorability rating of 42.6% [ [link removed] ] as I write, while Biden’s stuck at 40% [ [link removed] ]. A Reuters/Ipsos poll [ [link removed] ] showed 70% of respondents didn’t want Biden to seek reelection, and 56% thought Trump should drop out.
It’s not just the presidential race casting a gloom. Americans are down on pretty much everything. More than two-thirds [ [link removed] ] believe the U.S. is on the wrong track, and twice [ [link removed] ] as many say 2024 will be a bad year compared to those expecting something good. When it comes to politics, we’re all in a foul mood.
More of the Same
Bad news often motivates voters to make big changes, but both candidates have proven to be lousy executives. By the numbers, Trump performed well on the economy, the border and international crises, but continually alienated voters through erratic behavior and 24/7 reality-show dramatics. Biden provided a break from the chaos, only to fail on the economy, the border and international crises.
A Haley, DeSantis or even Kennedy might raise hopes that a new leader could ride in and try something different. As it stands, few voters who jumped from the frying pan into the fire are excited about those good old days in the skillet.
A Nikki Haley primary voter best summed up the dilemma. “I think [Trump is] so irrational and, really very frightening,” Micki Stout told [ [link removed] ] the Washington Post. “I think that if he allowed this January 6 thing to take place, he could try to take over the next time if he doesn’t win this one. I just think he’s dishonest and I don’t want that—but I think Biden is, too ... I definitely won’t vote for Biden. I will have to vote for Trump.”
With so little enthusiasm, both candidates will run intensely negative campaigns. I know you hate my guts, they may say, but please hate the other guy a little bit more. Negative polarization will only deepen the nation’s surly mood, with no hope that Biden or Trump have any chance of improving things.
Whoever loses will claim the race was rigged, angry protests will follow and the “winners” will be stuck with a lesser of two evils they didn’t care for in the first place. Spoiler alert: It’s going to be a rough four years.
Unmotivated Voters, Unmotivated Officeholders
With all this to look forward to, how many voters will show up to the polls? Early signs show apathy taking hold.
In Michigan, 1.8 million voters cast ballots in the primary [ [link removed] ], compared to 2.3 million in 2020 and 2.6 million in 2016. In California, more than 22 million mail-in ballots [ [link removed] ] were sent to residents, yet only about 5 million were submitted. How many showed up in person? Just 756,519 [ [link removed] ], in a state with nearly 40 million residents.
The last presidential election boasted record turnout by Americans ages 18 to 29. According to a poll [ [link removed] ] by Harvard’s Institute of Politics, the number of young voters “definitely” planning to vote in the next presidential election dropped from 57% in 2020 to 49% today.
Our current apathy aligns with the past century and a half in American presidential elections. We’ve had three “rematches”: 1892 (Grover Cleveland vs. Benjamin Harrison), 1900 (William McKinley vs. William Jennings Bryan) and 1956 (Dwight Eisenhower vs. Adlai Stevenson). Turnout dropped [ [link removed] ] for all three sequels.
While the presidential race gets the headlines, this environment creates a massive challenge for all the down-ballot candidates, particularly among Republicans. Would-be senators, governors and city councilmembers could likely get lost in the shuffle. Their main goal will be motivating a tuned-out electorate, hopefully with a few positive messages that can cut through the anger at the top of the ticket.
Many incumbents have nervously watched the trends and decided to get out. The most recent was Independent Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who announced Tuesday that she will not seek reelection. The man she replaced, Republican Jeff Flake, had made the same decision five years prior.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell decided to step down, six months after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted by a baker’s dozen of his own representatives. They’re now threatening [ [link removed] ] McCarthy’s successor, Mike Johnson. In all, eight senators and 42 members of the House have decided [ [link removed] ] not to run for reelection this time around.
“You give up your family, sacrifice being without your family all the time, in exchange for thinking we’re really going to accomplish something and get something done,” said [ [link removed] ] Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) who announced her retirement late last year. “And when that doesn’t happen, you start thinking, ‘Well, is it worth it?’”
How can the GOP motivate the electorate when it can’t motivate its own officeholders?
Since the most motivated GOP voters will be enthusiastic Trump fans, congressmembers who don’t want to put on the red “Make America Great Again” hat are understandably nervous. Committed MAGA candidates aren’t doing so hot either. The base likes them, but voters at large are not impressed.
In last month’s special election to replace Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), the Republican, Mazi Pilip, was crushed in the purple district. This mirrored the anemic showing by Trump-endorsed candidates in the 2022 midterms. Several of those same candidates—such as Arizona’s Kari Lake and Washington’s Joe Kent—are running the same MAGA playbook and hoping for different results.
Run Your Own Race
Most other Republicans should follow Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s strategy in 2021: Run your own race. He focused on state issues instead of the Beltway mess on his border. When asked, Youngkin said he voted for Trump, but never invited him on the campaign trail. Virginia Democrats focused instead on Trump, who had already been voted out of office.
This resulted in an upset win, sending Youngkin to the governor’s mansion, along with a Republican lieutenant governor and attorney general. It helped that the new governor didn’t employ Trump’s angry style and rarely invoked his name.
This, of course, is a delicate dance for any politician, but Sen. J.D. Vance won using similar tactics in Ohio’s 2022 general election. Voters want state and local leaders who focus on their needs, instead of Washington’s.
If you’re running in a solid red state, let your freak flag fly. But in purple or blue-leaning regions, candidates shouldn’t get distracted by the top of the ticket. Youngkin motivated the Virginia electorate to the highest turnout [ [link removed] ] in recent memory with no federal officials on the ballot.
As general election season amps up, candidates are best to ignore the malaise at the top of the ticket. Even if voters are apathetic about the race to the White House, they care a great deal about issues closer to home.

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