This week we’ve published our investigation into NHS England claims around the number of children ‘unprotected’ from measles.
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Dear Friend,
Good information from trusted institutions is a vital tool for voters when making decisions about their health. When institutions like NHS England get that wrong we’re here to investigate and ask for a correction.
That’s what happened on 22 January when NHS England claimed more than 3.4 million children in England under the age of 16 were “unprotected” against measles. This figure was then widely repeated in the media.
After we asked a series of questions, NHS England admitted that the figure is actually an upper estimate of the number of children aged 1-15 who might have missed at least one MMR vaccine dose.
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Dr David Elliman, a community paediatrician at Great Ormond Street Hospital, told us via the Science Media Centre of the 3.4 million figure:
“They may be unprotected, but it is not strictly accurate to say they are unprotected.” He added: “About 95% of children who have had one dose of vaccine will be protected, but this will go up to 99% after the second dose. There is no simple way of identifying those children not protected after the first dose and so all are offered a second dose.”
While it’s clear the original NHS claim was incorrect, it’s impossible to reliably say how many children are “unprotected”, or have missed MMR doses. However, public data does suggest that the true figure may be much lower than 3.4 million.
Best wishes,
Craig, Digital Campaigns Manager—Full Fact
FACT CHECKS
** AI portrait of Prince George and Princess Charlotte circulating online ([link removed])
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An image which is being widely shared on Facebook has been mistaken for a photograph of Prince George and Princess Charlotte, at least by some users. But the portrait has been created using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and is not genuine.
This is not the first time we’ve seen AI images being shared as if they’re genuine, or mistaken for real images, including pictures of hay bales and tractors by the Eiffel Tower, Pope Francis addressing crowds in Lisbon, as well as videos supposedly showing Sir Keir Starmer and BBC presenters promoting an investment scheme.
With a general election approaching, Full Fact thinks AI could play a big part in generating what is seen online. It's worth paying close attention to anything that seems out of the ordinary over the next 12 months.
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** How many Labour MPs are standing down at the next election? ([link removed])
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On Sky News’ Breakfast show last Friday, Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury Gareth Davies claimed that “nearly 50 Labour MPs” have said they will stand down at the next election.
This appears to be incorrect. Mr Davies hasn’t given any evidence to support his “nearly 50” figure, and it doesn’t appear to match the number of Labour MPs who have publicly announced they will not be standing at the next election.
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** Government borrowing is not forecast to increase year on year ([link removed])
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On BBC Breakfast the day after last week’s Budget, Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves MP claimed that “government borrowing is going up under the numbers published yesterday in every year of the forecast”, a claim the shadow chancellor persisted with when challenged by the BBC presenter.
This is potentially confusing, and doesn’t fully explain what the figures show. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that government borrowing will decrease year on year throughout the forecast period, though the government is now expected to borrow more than previously forecast last November.
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CAMPAIGNS UPDATE
** Petition continues to grow: Over 16,000 have now added their name ([link removed])
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Click the image to join over 16,000 people who have signed Full Fact's petition calling for an end to deceptive campaign tactics that could mislead voters.
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MORE FACT CHECKS
Also this week...
* Parade of mounted guards through London unrelated to death of Jacob Rothschild ([link removed])
* Ukrainian Embassy did not tell French farmers to stop protesting ([link removed])
* Misleading graph on civilian airstrike deaths in Gaza doesn’t use comparable data ([link removed])
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Team Full Fact
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