Top Lines: US Economy And Trade Policy | 2020 Election And Political Analysis | Coronavirus Crisis | Impeachment | Protecting Our Elections And Disinformation | Immigration And The Border | Countering Illiberalism's Rise
Notes On 2020 - As we’ve written to you before, we aren’t going to be paying too much attention to polling these next few weeks for it will no doubt be very volatile and noisy. Trump does appear to have gotten a small bump in recent days, though the fundamental structure of the race hasn’t changed - he’s minus 4.5 in 538’s job approval tracker, down 9 to Biden in new Fox News polling, and the Congressional Generic remains at -7.4 for the GOP. The national landscape still favors the Dems.
We are doubtful that Trump is in for any kind of sustained bump. Regardless of Trump’s daily pressers, the cold hard truth is that the President failed to take action against COVID-19 when he should have; is playing a dangerous and sadistic game with the states; and his plan is still inadequate for what’s needed today. The numbers that Americans will be focusing on in the coming months won’t be his daily TV ratings or job approval but COVID infection and death rates, the amount of equipment moved to the health care front lines, unemployment and uninsured rates, and GDP growth. If these measures are good, he will have a good election. If they aren’t, he won’t.
That Trump is the third consecutive GOP President to see a recession and exploding deficits on their watch speaks to something we’ve been exploring in recent years - that the two parties just aren’t the same and aren’t mirrors of one another. Since this new age of globalization began in the late 1980s, Democratic Presidents have produced growth, jobs, rising wages, and lower annual deficits. The two Bush Presidents and Trump will have produced recessions and hard times, and W Bush and Trump will have overseen two of the worst economic moments in American history. That Democrats keep getting the big things right in this new age, and the Republicans so disastrously wrong, simply must be a more significant area of debate and discussion in the months ahead.
With The Stimulus Passed, Congress Should Focus Now On Taming The Virus - Ten weeks into the pandemic here in the US, it is clear that the virus isn’t contained and the President’s strategy isn’t working. Congress has done a great deal in recent weeks, but it’s most important job lies ahead - it must work with the governors to help fashion a true national plan to defeat COVID. There is broad agreement about what needs to get done:
1) Surge medical equipment/beds/personnel to the front lines
2) Finally stand up a national testing/isolation regime
3) Implement a mandatory 21 day national stay at home period
If the President isn’t willing to do what it takes, Congress, with the help of the governors, should.
NDN’s Weekly COVID Zoom Discussion W/Dr. Rob Shapiro And Simon Rosenberg Fridays At 2 PM - To help stay in touch with our community in these challenging times, NDN will be holding a weekly Zoom-based discussion with Simon and Rob. These talks will be Fridays from 2 to 2:45 pm. You can register for this Friday’s COVID discussion here, and be sure to read Rob’s latest take on what COVID means for the US economy in this new Washington Monthly piece.
More Work To Be Done On America's Economic Response To Coronavirus - NDN was pleased with the successful passage of a major economic rescue package by Congress last week. The bill takes important steps towards helping the millions of workers who have lost their jobs in this crisis, providing a bridge for businesses to cover their costs as their revenues have collapsed, funding state and local governments that have seen their deficits skyrocket, and providing a massive cash transfer program to boost the overall economy. However, this bill should only be seen as the first of many pieces of legislation to counter the crisis, and there is much more to get done if we are to ensure a v-shaped recovery once the virus itself is under control.
First, while this new level of spending by Congress (almost 10% of GDP) is unprecedented in modern American history, it is likely still too small considering the magnitude of the crisis. Goldman Sachs projects that growth will fall by an annualized 24% in Q2, while JP Morgan estimates a decline of 25%. To counter this enormous shock, Congress must be ready to authorize far more fiscal stimulus. Second, more must be done provide bridge loans to small and large businesses to help them maintain their fixed costs during the crisis and to encourage them to avoid layoffs. Many Western European countries have implemented programs in which the fiscal authorities subsidize the labor costs of struggling industries in return for those firms keeping their workers on payroll, and the US should do the same on a much larger scale than in the first stimulus bill to avoid mass unemployment in the first place. Finally (among many other things), Congress must be willing to place strong oversight on the significant economic powers being granted to the Executive. We were startled by the President's apparent ignoring of oversight restrictions placed upon his use of bailout funds for industries (particularly given his ownership stakes in firms in those very industries), so Congress must be willing to improve upon its transparency requirements in its next legislation.
For more on NDN's work on the economic consequences of coronavirus, click here. You can find new pieces on this subject by our long-time contributor Rob Shapiro in The Washington Post here and in The Washington Monthly here. Chris also published a new piece on how Congress should construct a massive fiscal stimulus, which you can find here.
Best,
Simon, Chris, and the rest of the NDN team
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