Threat Report by U.S. Intel Agencies Details ‘Increasingly Fragile World Order’ |
U.S. intelligence officials testified (Reuters) to lawmakers yesterday about the release of their annual threat assessment (Office of the Director of National Intelligence). The report said the United States faces an “increasingly fragile world order” strained by “an ambitious but anxious China, a confrontational Russia, some regional powers, such as Iran, and more capable non-state actors.”
While the report largely focused on China and Russia, it also discussed the war between Israel and Hamas. CIA Director William Burns said in his testimony that a hostage deal was the most practical way (NYT) to halt the war in the Gaza Strip, while Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said it was likely that the Gaza conflict would have (WaPo) “a generational impact on terrorism.” Regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine, Burns said that Kyiv would likely “lose significant ground” to Moscow if new U.S. aid does not arrive. The report also flagged risks related to artificial intelligence and cyber espionage, saying that Russia will likely try to influence the 2024 U.S. election and that China might try to do the same.
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“The Russian military’s long-term weaknesses will not matter if Ukraine is not supported this year. Ukrainian frontline soldiers are in mounting jeopardy—not because they lack the will to fight or do not know their enemy’s weaknesses, but because of shortfalls in ammunition and manpower,” the Carnegie Endowment’s Dara Massicot writes for Foreign Affairs.
“Now in an election year, the top U.S. spies increasingly cite emerging technology and cybersecurity as playing a factor in assessing its national security posture,” TechCrunch’s Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai and Zack Whittaker write.
In Foreign Affairs, CIA Director William Burns discusses how the agency is transforming in a new age of competition.
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Haiti’s Prime Minister Announces Plan to Resign |
Ariel Henry will step down (Miami Herald) once a new presidential transition council is established, he said in a video address last night. His announcement came after Caribbean officials and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held an emergency meeting on Haiti’s security and political crisis in Jamaica yesterday. Domestic support for Henry has plummeted and gang takeover of critical infrastructure in the country had blocked his reentry after he went to Kenya to develop plans for the deployment of a multinational security force to Haiti.
Argentina: The country is beginning (Bloomberg) an attempt to swap out almost all of its peso-denominated debt due in 2024. The bonds that the economy ministry posted for the swap could add up to $65 billion, a record size for an Argentine debt swap and a test of confidence in President Javier Milei’s economic policies.
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UN Atomic Leader Visits Japan to Inspect Discharge of Water From Fukushima Plant |
International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi is on a three-day visit (AP) to Japan, where he will inspect the release of treated water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Grossi’s trip falls on the thirteenth anniversary of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that set off Fukushima’s disaster. He and Japan’s foreign and economic ministers are due to discuss nuclear disarmament cooperation and the peaceful use of nuclear energy, among other topics.
New Zealand: Aviation authorities are seizing (Reuters) the cockpit voice recorder and flight data tracker of a Boeing 787 plane that experienced a midair drop on a flight between Sydney and Auckland yesterday that injured more than fifty people.
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India Enacts Citizenship Law Accused of Anti-Muslim Discrimination |
The Indian government announced yesterday that it will begin enforcing (NYT) a 2019 citizenship law that had incited deadly protests at the time. Some criticized the law as discriminatory because it grants Indian citizenship to people who fled to India from nearby countries in recent years and come from several religions, excluding Muslims.
This Backgrounder by Lindsay Maizland looks at the growing marginalization of Muslims in India.
Pakistan: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif tapped Muhammad Aurangzeb, CEO of Pakistan’s largest bank, to be (Hindustan Times) finance minister in the country’s new cabinet that was sworn in yesterday. Sharif said that “deep surgery” rather than “antibiotics” is needed to fix Pakistan’s economy.
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Middle East and North Africa |
Ship Carrying Aid for Gaza Sets Sail From Cyprus |
The ship is carrying (AP) some two hundred tons of food provided by the charity World Central Kitchen and is set to arrive in two to three days. Its journey serves as a pilot for a U.S.-backed sea channel for aid to Gaza that is expected to be operational in a few weeks.
Israel/Lebanon: Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah said today that it fired (Reuters) more than one hundred rockets into Israel in response to Israeli shelling of northern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley region for two consecutive days. Both the Israeli and Hezbollah attacks underscore the potential of ongoing skirmishes on the Israel-Lebanon border area spreading farther afield.
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DRC, Rwandan Leaders to Attend Meeting on Conflict |
Angola’s foreign minister said the leaders of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda have agreed to discuss (AFP) the conflict in eastern DRC. The DRC accuses Rwanda of backing rebels in eastern DRC. Angola is serving as a mediator for the African Union and will set the date for the discussion.
This timeline traces the legacy of conflict and intervention in eastern Congo.
U.S./Somalia: The U.S. Treasury Department announced (Reuters) new sanctions yesterday on a financial network it says funds the Al-Shabaab rebel group in Somalia. The move targets sixteen entities and individuals across Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and the Horn of Africa.
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Polish Leaders Visit White House, Call for Increased NATO Defense Spending |
Polish President Andrzej Duda called for (NYT) other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to increase their military spending from its current 2 percent up to 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) ahead of his White House visit today with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Poland currently spends nearly 4 percent of its GDP on defense.
Russia/Ukraine: Ukrainian drones hit targets (AP) deep inside Russia today, including at least two oil refineries, Russian officials said. One of the Ukrainian strikes was on a refinery some 480 miles from the Ukrainian border.
This article by CFR expert Kristen D. Thompson explores how Ukraine’s drone war is transforming conflict.
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Council on Foreign Relations |
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