Daily News Brief

March 11, 2024

Top of the Agenda

U.S. President Joe Biden opposes the prospect of an Israeli military offensive in the southern Gazan city of Rafah, he told MSNBC in an interview on Saturday. Israel has weighed plans (Bloomberg) for an assault on the city, which it estimates houses between five and eight thousand Hamas fighters. Though Washington hoped a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip could be reached before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan began after sundown yesterday, those talks appear deadlocked. 

Rafah is currently a refuge for around half of Gaza’s population. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has said (Politico) that invading it would yield a “humanitarian catastrophe.” Still, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with media company Axel Springer that he planned to press forward with plans for the offensive. Biden said on MSNBC that Netanyahu “must pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost as a consequence of the actions taken.”

Analysis

“The Israelis are intent on carrying out an operation in the city of Rafah, near the Egyptian border, because there are four Hamas battalions holed up there. In addition, the group’s Gaza-based leadership is believed to be in tunnels below the city,” CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook writes in this Expert Brief.

“Without an Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal for which [Biden] needs Netanyahu’s agreement, you might as well hang the ‘closed for the season’ sign on American policy,” the Carnegie Endowment’s Aaron David Miller tells the Wall Street Journal.

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Pacific Rim

China’s legislature voted to amend (Bloomberg) the State Council Organic Law for the first time since it was adopted in 1982, giving President Xi Jinping’s ruling party more control over the cabinet. Scholars said this is part of a trend of the Communist Party working to gain increasing control over the organs of the state.

Germany/Malaysia: Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is meeting (Bernama) with German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz today as part of a six-day visit to Germany. The country is Malaysia’s largest trade partner in the European Union and Anwar’s visit is due to focus on economic cooperation, education, environmental sustainability, and more.  

For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick discusses Anwar’s first year in power.

South and Central Asia

Yesterday’s deal came after fifteen years of talks with the four-country European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and days before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due to announce national election dates. As part of the deal, the four countries announced a goal (FT) of investing $100 billion in India over the next fifteen years. 

India: The country’s top court denied (The Wire) a request today by the public State Bank of India to conceal information about campaign finance bonds until after this year’s elections. The court ruled that the information must be disclosed by tomorrow. 

Middle East and North Africa

Evidence shows that trauma inflicted on twenty-two-year-old Mahsa Amini while she was in custody of Iran’s morality police led to (WaPo) her 2022 death, a UN fact-finding mission said in a report released Friday. A spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry called the conclusions “unfounded.” 

Sub-Saharan Africa

The Economic Community of Central African States had suspended membership for Gabon six months ago following a coup there, but member countries agreed over the weekend to begin reintegrating Gabon into the bloc. Gabon’s junta said in November that it planned (Reuters) to hold elections in August 2025.

For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s Alexandra Dent outlines the Gabon junta’s balancing act in seeking legitimacy. 

Senegal: Opposition coalition leader Bassirou Diomaye Faye said he would renegotiate (Bloomberg) state contracts with oil and gas companies to increase government revenue if elected. Faye is expected to be freed from prison ahead of the country’s March 24 vote as part of an amnesty deal for detentions following recent political protests.

Europe

The center-right Democratic Alliance won more than 29 percent of votes, and some within the party seek to join (CNN) a governing coalition with far-right party Chega. Chega won 18 percent of the vote despite forming only five years ago, while Portugal’s incumbent Socialist Party won more than 28 percent. 

Ukraine: Pope Francis called for a negotiated end (AP) to the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba pushed back (Politico) against Francis’s use of the term “white flag,” saying Kyiv would not surrender. A Vatican spokesperson clarified that the pope was talking about negotiations.

Americas

The board of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) approved (FT) the increase at its annual meeting yesterday. As part of a broad overhaul at the institution, it plans to issue fewer, larger loans and increase their oversight.

This Backgrounder by CFR’s Diana Roy explains the Inter-American Development Bank.

Haiti: Nonessential U.S. embassy staff as well as German and European diplomatic envoys evacuated (BBC) Haiti over the weekend amid a mounting security crisis. Officials have extended a three-day state of emergency there by a month as attacks by armed gangs have increased.

United States

President Biden’s budget proposal is set to be released (CNBC) today even as Congress has yet to pass the 2024 budget halfway through the fiscal year. The White House said the new budget aims to reduce the country’s deficit by $3 trillion over the next ten years by overhauling the corporate tax code and increasing taxes on wealthy households.

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