The Israeli flag flies in front of the Lviv Regional State Administration building as a sign of solidarity with the Israeli people on October 13, 2023, in Lviv, Ukraine. (Photo by Les Kasyanov/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)

To prevent crises in Europe and the Middle East from spiraling into a wider war involving the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or Taiwan, the United States needs to stand with its frontline allies, deter its adversaries, and demonstrate the resolve to follow through on its promises.

To learn how, watch Distinguished Fellow Mike Pompeo’s conversation with Senior Fellow Michael Doran or read the highlights below.

Key Insights

1. Easing maximum pressure sanctions against Iran was a mistake. 

“We had the Iranians down to $4 billion in foreign exchange reserves. Today, they have something between $25 and $35 billion in foreign exchange reserves. They’re no longer having to cut the salaries for Hezbollah fighters or not try one more space launch because they don’t have enough money. . . . You should immediately begin going back to the economic sanctions model we have. Not because the sanctions themselves will stop or change the Iranian mindset or change the regime. . . . But it will force them to make difficult choices about how they're going to prosecute their efforts, their terror campaigns.”

2. Deterrence is a matter of demonstrating resolve.

“It’s not about the particular target. It's about what you have now done to change the perception of risk for the decision-maker on the other side. And we were always deeply cognizant of that. When we took the Soleimani strike, the strike mattered. It was material. . . . But what was important about it was all the work we had done in the background to communicate what that meant, what we were prepared to do. And if you don't do that, if you just take the strike and then you go, ‘hey, we’re done and we’re sorry and gosh, can’t believe we killed some Iranians,’ you get a very different outcome. The deterrence model changes fundamentally because it is about perception and not actual risk—the adversary’s perception that you’re prepared to defend the things you said you’d defend. You can't make it up. I can’t imagine . . . that anyone sitting in Tehran is really worried about the United States taking away something from Iran that it holds dear.”

3. Ukraine needs America’s help. Sending aid serves the interests of each and every American.

“We need to do it, not for the Ukrainians, but we need to do it for the Americans in the first instance. I was actually in Kyiv with [Congressman] Brian [Fitzpatrick] two weeks ago, two and a half weeks ago. We were there the day Avdiivka fell. And just as they were changing ministers of defense. . . . the day when the reality of the failure of the American system to produce the systems for them, to permit them to do the work that they needed to do was really sinking in. They were very gloomy. They’re very down about their capacity to continue to prosecute against Vladimir Putin. . . . This matters to every American that we get this right. We could talk about all the reasons. From the fact that we made a promise in 1994 to defend them if they gave up their nuclear weapons to the commercial impacts if we get this wrong. We ought to do that for ourselves.”

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length. 

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