Policy Currents The newsletter for policy people
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** March 7, 2024
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Russia's Mistakes May Be the West's Greatest Advantage
In its attempts to challenge the West, Russia has a long history of unforced errors. In fact, says RAND's William Courtney, "Moscow's mistakes are so frequent or serious that they substantially weaken Russia's position."
The strategic missteps began early in the Cold War, when the Soviet Union blockaded Allied land access to West Berlin and organized a coup in once-democratic Czechoslovakia. Both actions rallied support for the creation of NATO. More recently, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine may prove to be modern Russia's greatest blunder. And, just last month, the Kremlin made another high-profile mistake: the murder of Alexei Navalny, which occurred on the cusp of a U.S. congressional vote on aid to Ukraine.
While Russia has paid a price for many of its miscalculations, Courtney says, it sometimes escapes blowback "because the West has other priorities or is naive." What consequences might Russia face for its most recent errors? And will it learn the right lessons?
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It's Not Enough to Just Replace Lead Pipes
From Flint, to Denver, to Pittsburgh, many communities have experienced lead-contaminated drinking water in recent years. The latest water quality challenge is happening on St. Croix, one of the U.S. Virgin Islands, where a monthslong water advisory was recently lifted. The immediate response to this crisis may be over, but more work is needed to ensure safe drinking water in the long term, says RAND's Sara Hughes. Removing and replacing all lead service lines is key, as are upgrades that account for the effects of climate change. However, just as important as rebuilding the infrastructure of the water system itself is rebuilding residents' trust, Hughes says.
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How Will Climate Change Affect National Security?
There is still an enormous amount to be learned about how climate change may affect U.S. national security. A new RAND paper takes a key first step toward filling this gap by identifying areas for future research. The authors focus on the social and political implications of climate change, which are understudied compared with the physical effects of the crisis. Examining these areas is essential to better understanding the full scope of effects that climate change may have on national security. After all, the authors write, "climate change is not reshaping just a handful of discrete events, or the next few years; it is reshaping the map of the world."
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** RAND Recommends
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- In honor of International Women's Day tomorrow, now is a good time to learn more about how women at RAND are conducting high-impact research that helps communities and countries around the world.
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- Chronic absenteeism and math learning loss are adding up among America's students. RAND's Lauren Covelli and Elizabeth Steiner explain what educators and parents can do about it.
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- In Foreign Affairs, RAND's Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations write about how to pave the way for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
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** Events
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Policy Lab: Understanding Climate Science and the Pursuit of Climate Equity
Thursday, March 14, 2024 (Online)
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Climate Change and Conflict: Implications for U.S. Central Command
Thursday, March 14, 2024 (Washington, D.C., or Online)
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How Could Evolving State Policies Affect LGBTQ+ Veterans' Health?
Thursday, March 21, 2024 (Online)
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