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BUDGET FACT CHECKS

Was the chancellor’s claim about ‘falling’ debt correct?


During today’s Budget, the chancellor Jeremy Hunt said “debt is falling in line with our fiscal rules”. However, as we’ve written before about similar claims, and as others have pointed out today, debt is not currently falling—it is forecast to fall. 

Underlying public sector net debt, which excludes the Bank of England’s debt and is the measure the government uses in its targets, is currently forecast to peak in 2026-27 and 2027-28 before falling, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.

 
 

What’s the impact of today’s National Insurance cut?


During the Budget today the chancellor also announced a cut in National Insurance contributions (NICs) of 2p. Mr Hunt claimed that combined with a cut of 2p to NICs made last autumn this amounted to a £900 tax cut for the average employee. 

While it is true that the two cuts to NICs would see the average employee—who earns roughly £35,000—pay £900 less in National Insurance, this claim requires additional context. The figure doesn’t account for the impact of ongoing freezes to personal tax thresholds.

The personal allowance above which you start paying income tax has been frozen at £12,570 until 2028. The threshold at which the higher rate tax kicks in is currently frozen at £50,271. 

 
 

How has disposable income changed since 2010?

Ahead of the Budget we saw a couple of different claims about how household incomes have fared since 2010. 

Claim 1: Real household incomes have increased by 12% since 2010.
  • Our Verdict: Real household disposable income has increased since 2010, but not by quite this much.
Claim 2: Between 1997 and 2010, the average disposable income went up from £1,219 per month to £1,568 in real terms, which was a 28.6% increase. In the 13 years since then, it grew by just 11% to £1,746.
  • Our Verdict: These figures are correct when looking at quarterly data for real household disposable income per capita.
 
 
 
CAMPAIGNS UPDATE

Almost 1,000 sign our petition in a week
Last week during PMQs a supportive MP asked Rishi Sunak to sign our honest election pledge, which includes a ban on deceptive campaign practices.

Since then almost 1,000 people have signed our petition. By adding your name your could push signatures up to 16,000.
Add your name
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