Daily News Brief

March 6, 2024

Top of the Agenda

U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein floated a proposal (Times of Israel) for de-escalation on the border in a meeting yesterday with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Tel Aviv. Hochstein had done the same (Times of Israel, AFP) in Beirut on Monday. The United States and partner countries have called for a lasting security pact on the Israel-Lebanon border as skirmishes between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah continue.

Hochstein’s mediation efforts are in parallel to diplomatic efforts to reach a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas. If tensions with Hezbollah are not managed, conflict could escalate (Reuters) on the Israel-Lebanon border despite a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, Hochstein said. Hochstein and Gallant spoke yesterday about the prospect of reaching an agreement that would see Hezbollah withdraw from the border area, according to an Israeli readout of their meeting. Gallant said that Israel was “committed to the diplomatic process,” but continued attacks from Hezbollah were “dragging the parties to a dangerous escalation.”

Analysis

“Kudos to the U.S. and French officials for trying to avoid war, but as they are discovering, there is no diplomatic solution to the zero-sum relationship between Hezbollah and Israel, especially as Israeli leaders vow to change the rules of the game between Israel and the axis of resistance,” CFR expert Steven A. Cook writes for Foreign Policy.

“The United States did help to head off war between Israel and Hezbollah in the days after October 7,” the Economist’s Gregg Carlstrom writes for Foreign Affairs. “[Iran’s] “axis of resistance” was meant to keep conflicts away from Iran’s borders: now, however, to use that axis is to risk bringing them home.”

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

United States

President Joe Biden won (AP) all of yesterday’s Democratic contests except that in American Samoa, while former President Donald Trump won all of the Republican contests but Vermont. Their victories put each in a commanding lead for their respective party’s presidential nomination. In Minnesota, some 19 percent of Democratic voters chose “uncommitted” (NYT) to protest U.S. support of Israel’s actions in Gaza, but that movement saw less support in other states.

Pacific Rim

Today’s joint statement from a Melbourne summit between Australia and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries called for (Bloomberg) the peaceful resolution of disputes in the South China Sea. A collision the day earlier between Chinese and Philippine ships underscored ongoing tensions in the area.

This timeline looks at maritime disputes in the South China Sea. 

China/Russia: The countries are working together on a lunar program and considering (Reuters) trying to put a nuclear power plant on the moon, the head of Russia’s space agency said yesterday.

South and Central Asia

President Ranil Wickremesinghe is asking (AP) lenders to approve a plan to defer repayments until 2028 as the country attempts to emerge from bankruptcy, which it declared in 2022. Sri Lanka is currently carrying out economic reforms as part of a bailout program with the International Monetary Fund.

Pakistan: Islamabad’s top court unanimously ruled (Reuters) that former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto did not receive a fair trial before he was convicted of murder and executed in 1979. Rights groups say the military regime that ruled Pakistan at the time was known to persecute critics. 

Middle East and North Africa

The Sudanese army plans (Al-Monitor) to engage in indirect talks with rival paramilitary force Rapid Support Forces regarding a “peaceful solution” to their war, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Al-Sadiq Ali said. The plans for mediation come as the war approaches its one-year anniversary next month and as fears grow that the conflict will become a greater proxy war. Nearly five million Sudanese people are experiencing (Reuters) emergency levels of hunger, more than triple that of last year.

The Center for Preventive Action tracks Sudan’s civil war. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Last August, Zimbabwe lowered the requirement (Bloomberg) for how much revenue from such projects must go to the government, opening the doors to applications for projects including forestry and regenerative agriculture. Separately, Zambia’s environment minister called yesterday for African countries to take a unified stance on the carbon credit trade. The continent has the potential to offer around 30 percent of the world’s credits, but remains on the lowest end of compensation for them, he said. 

Kenya: Lawmakers voted today (Bloomberg) approving debt swaps linked to environmental and food security goals beginning July 1. So-called debt-for-nature swaps have been carried out by countries including Belize, Ecuador, and Gabon in recent years.

Europe

The International Criminal Court (ICC) accused (NYT) the senior officers of the war crimes of targeting civilians and destroying critical energy infrastructure. This is the second time the court has issued arrest warrants related to Russia’s war in Ukraine; it ordered the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin last March.

This Backgrounder by Claire Klobucista and CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo explains the role of the ICC.

France/Moldova: The countries will sign (Reuters) defense and economic cooperation deals tomorrow, French President Emmanuel Macron said, as fears mount that Russia will destabilize the former Soviet state. Russia has troops in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria. 

Americas

María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s most popular opposition presidential hopeful, remains barred (BBC) from running, and the new timeline that comes months earlier than expected establishes a tight March 25 deadline for opposition candidates to register. Last year, the United States lifted some sanctions on Venezuela after the government made pledges regarding the timeline and conditions for elections; it has since threatened to reimpose them after Venezuela’s top court upheld Machado’s ban.

Peru: Alberto Otárola resigned (AFP) as Peru’s prime minister yesterday after leaked audio recordings prompted government prosecutors to say they would open a probe against him for conflict of interest. Otárola denied any wrongdoing. 

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