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It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.
WHAT TO WATCH ON SUPER TUESDAY
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
(*Deep, echoing announcer voice*) Welcome TO the MARCH MADNEEEESSS of politics!
Whether this makes you cheer, or, frankly, want to run, you should know this: Other than Nov. 5, there will be no other day in this calendar year with more elections or with more potential impact on the future of the country.
Super Tuesday is “super” because more than a third of total delegates to each party’s nomination process will be awarded.
First, a look at the landscape:
- How many states are voting? Republicans are voting and caucusing in 15 states Tuesday. Democrats are voting in 14 states and one territory — American Samoa. Results from Iowa Democrats’ mail-in caucus are also expected Tuesday.
- The main focus Tuesday (and in this guide) will be the Republican race.
- An uphill climb. While Nikki Haley has lost all but one Republican race to former President Donald Trump, she has gotten double digits of support in each of those primary contests. There is no such opponent for President Joe Biden.
What are poll closing times? Plenty of opportunity in here for dinner, dessert and popcorn. Here are poll closing times, in Eastern time, with the Republican delegates at stake in each state*:
- 7 p.m. — Vermont (17), Virginia (48)
- 7:30 p.m. — North Carolina (74)
- 8 p.m. — Alabama (50), Maine (20), Massachusetts (40), Oklahoma (43), Tennessee (58)
- 8:30 p.m. — Arkansas (40)
- 9 p.m. — Colorado (37), Minnesota (39), Texas (161)**
- 11 p.m. — California (169), Utah (40)
*Compiled by our friend Domenico Montenaro at NPR.
**Much of Texas will report results starting at 8 p.m. Eastern.
TWO SPECIFIC THINGS TO WATCH
Does Haley collect many delegates? Trump is so far in front on the delegate count that Haley is in danger of looking like a speck in the distance.
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Photo by Aude Guerrucci/Reuters
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- To have a presence at the Republican Convention in July and in the party going forward.
- To be the uncontested 2024 runner-up and therefore an early contender in 2028.
- To be in position should Trump not become or remain the nominee, either due to legal or health troubles.
The problem for Haley tonight is that many states are “winner-take-all,” either outright or if a candidate gets more than 50 percent of the total. Trump commands that kind of lead in most states.
Thus, watch for how Haley does in the other states, where delegates may be won proportionally at lower thresholds. Those states are:
- Alaska
- Colorado
- Minnesota (Some delegates by district and statewide are winner-take-all if a candidate gets over 80 percent.)
- North Carolina
- Oklahoma (25 at-large delegates are allocated proportionally)
- Texas (114 congressional district delegates are allocated proportionally)
- Virginia (12 at-large delegates are allocated proportionally)
The congressional primaries. The Super Tuesday states may also tell us a great deal about the fight to control Congress.
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Photo by Mark Makela/Reuters
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Scores of congressional district matchups will be decided Tuesday in marquee primary battles. It is hard to pick, but here are four to highlight:
- Alabama’s 1st District. Due to redistricting, two Republican members of Congress are facing offr. And in recent weeks, this race has gotten quite ugly and weird. Either Rep. Barry Moore or Rep. Jerry Carl will emerge. If neither gets 50 percent, they will face a runoff in April.
- Arkansas’ 3rd District. Current Rep. Steve Womack is a longtime, well-respected Republican on the Hill, but his job may be in danger because he openly opposed Freedom Caucus founder Rep. Jim Jordan in his race for speaker in October. Womack faces a strong challenge from the right.
- Texas’ 18th District. One of the most senior Democrats in the House of Representatives is in jeopardy tonight, largely due to her own political missteps. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, a perennial fixture on the aisle at State of the Union speeches, faces a primary against one of her own former staffers. This after Lee ran for Houston mayor and handily lost, only announcing a reelection bid for Congress after the defeat for mayor. In the meantime, a city councilwoman — and former intern of Jackson Lee’s — had switched into the congressional race when Lee ran for mayor. Amanda Edwards has raised significant money and momentum. Per the Texas Tribune, Jackson Lee has faced only four primary challengers in her nearly 30 years in Congress and has survived numerous redistricting changes, but this may be her toughest battle yet.
- California Senate. If you watch politics, this race is already on your radar. Three high-profile Democratic members of Congress are vying for the U.S. Senate seat that used to be held by Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee have all made names for themselves in Congress, but it is Schiff who has led in polls. On the Republican side, baseball legend Steve Garvey hopes to advance. California’s primary has a “top-two” format: the top two finishers, regardless of party, move on to November.
Tell us what you are watching! I’ll be posting thoughts and results live on X, and will read and respond as often as I can. |
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HOW TO WATCH SUPER TUESDAY SPECIAL COVERAGE
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Watch the PBS NewsHour’s special coverage in the player above.
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By Yasmeen Alamiri, @Yalamiri
Senior Editor, Video and Special Projects
The PBS NewsHour will host continuous Super Tuesday coverage, beginning at 6 p.m. Eastern.
Special digital coverage will begin at 8 p.m. Eastern on the program's YouTube channel.
PBS NewsHour co-anchors Amna Nawaz and Geoff Bennett will host a broadcast special from the nation’s capital, from 11 to 11:30 p.m. Eastern, by the time most states’ polls have closed.
Check your local listings to find the PBS station near you, or watch online here or in the player above.
You can also follow the PBS NewsHour’s live coverage on YouTube, Twitter, Facebook and TikTok, and see highlights on our Instagram.
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More on politics from our coverage:
- Read: The Supreme Court’s full ruling on keeping Trump on the 2024 presidential ballot.
- One Big Question: How did the justices arrive at this ruling? The NewsHour’s William Brangham explains.
- A Closer Look: Your guide to every state voting on Super Tuesday, courtesy of the Associated Press.
- Perspectives: Why support for crisis pregnancy centers is surging after the end of Roe v. Wade.
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#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Matt Loffman, @mattloff
Deputy Senior Producer, Politics
On this Super Tuesday, Republicans in 15 states will cast their choice for the party’s nominee.
While former President Donald Trump leads in the delegate count so far, his last-remaining rival, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, made history on Sunday when she won the primary in Washington, D.C., becoming the first woman in U.S. history to win a GOP primary race.
Our question: Who was the first woman to have her name placed in nomination for president at a major party convention?
Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.
Last week, we asked: How many funding gaps since 1980 has the federal government initiated its shutdown procedures?
The answer: 10. The most recent funding gap, which started on Dec. 21, 2018, and ended on Jan. 25, 2019, lasted 34 full days. That partial government shutdown was also the longest in U.S. history, disrupting paychecks for hundreds of thousands of federal employees.
Congratulations to our winners: Brenda Radford and John Cleveland!
Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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