The former president’s story doesn’t add up. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

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Donald Trump stoked fears of a migrant-fueled crime wave at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday, describing the United States under President Biden as awash in “bloodshed, chaos, and violent crime.” It was a near cut-and-paste from his CPAC speech last year, when he warned that the country was becoming a “lawless, open borders, crime-ridden, filthy, communist nightmare.”

This is nothing new — presidential candidates have been telling Americans scary stories about dark-skinned criminals for their own political gain for a very long time. Trump’s stories, however, don’t line up with reality

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, as my colleagues Lauren-Brooke Eisen and Ames Grawert explain in a recent article on our website.

The first problem with Trump’s narrative is the timeline. The spike in violent crime happened on Trump’s watch, not Biden’s. In 2020, the final year of the Trump presidency, murder rose by nearly 30 percent and assault by more than 10 percent. Crime surges are almost always multifactorial, and the Covid-19 pandemic and associated economic upheaval played a major role in the historic 2020 crime surge. One cause, though, most certainly was not the Biden presidency, which had not yet begun.

Since Biden took office, violent crime appears to be on a downward trend. As of 2022, violent crime rates had fallen by 4 percent and murder rates by roughly 7 percent since 2020, according to the FBI. Those numbers haven’t returned us to pre-Covid levels, unfortunately, but the trend lines certainly don’t suggest that Biden’s policies — or anyone’s policies since 2020 — caused a crime surge. The more likely explanation is that, following a decades-long decline in violent crime, the pandemic initiated a spike that is in the process of receding.

Trump’s other baseless crime-related claim at CPAC was that newly arrived migrants are responsible for violent crime. He predicted that the current wave of migration will be “far more deadly than anyone thought.” There is no evidence to support this narrative. New York City, for example, has absorbed more than 150,000 migrants since the spring of 2022. Violent crime did not increase during that time. Moreover, research conducted before the pandemic suggests that undocumented immigrants are not a major source of crime, contrary to Trump’s claim.

For decades, crime was the most potent wedge issue. Such inflammatory topics aimed to cause disagreement between white voters and voters of color. That was easier in years when violence soared and cities spiraled as a result. Gentlemanly George H.W. Bush won the presidency using scary advertisements about Willie Horton, a Black man who had raped a white woman while out on a weekend furlough from prison. Lee Atwater, Bush’s strategist, vowed to make Horton “Michael Dukakis’s running mate.” It helped propel Bush to the White House.

But over the past decade, there has been a heartening bipartisan movement to reform criminal justice laws. In 2016, candidates jostled to denounce “mass incarceration.” Trump signed the First Step Act — a sentencing and prison reform bill — and featured formerly incarcerated people sitting in the gallery during the State of the Union.

So Trump’s turn to xenophobic bombast, while not a surprise, is unsettling. With the economy strengthening, immigration will be a dominant issue. Here as in other countries, for reasons good and bad, millions of people are crossing borders. If some commit crimes, it will become fodder for campaign attacks. Social media and right-wing broadcasters will amplify each attack. The next Willie Horton will debut in the Daily Mail online.

Over the course of this year, the Brennan Center will fight fear with facts. Panic leads to bad policy. It risks upending the long-standing bipartisan coalition that supports meaningful criminal justice reform. We’ll be keeping close track of the false claims of politicians of both parties throughout this election season, and we’ll be a reliable source for sober, clear, and honest analysis of crime trends. Keep watching this space.





The Inhumane Prison Within a Prison

Despite its past rulings on the unconstitutionality of depriving incarcerated people of their basic human necessities, the Supreme Court declined to hear a case last year brought by a formerly incarcerated Illinois man who was kept in solitary confinement for three years. A wealth of research establishes the severe psychological damage caused by solitary confinement, and there’s scant evidence that it makes prisons and jails safer in the long term. The Supreme Court may have refused to weigh in on the issue, but the quest to curtail this damaging practice can still progress without the high court. “Advocates can take the fight to check the punishment to elected federal, state, and local officials,” Hernandez Stroud writes. Read more

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Immigration Is Not an Invasion

Trump has promised supporters that if reelected, he would “immediately” invoke the Alien Enemies Act to enable the mass deportation of noncitizens. Commentators have cast doubt on his ability to follow through on this pledge, as this 18th-century law can only be used if the nation is at war or under invasion. Given courts’ increasing reluctance to rule on “political questions,” however, there’s still a risk Trump could invoke the act, even if it’s clearly inapplicable. “The most certain safeguard against Trump’s threatened actions is for Congress to repeal this outdated, dangerous legislation,” Katherine Yon Ebright writes in Just Security. READ MORE

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Surveillance Reform Hits a Snag

Earlier this month, the House Intelligence Committee blocked efforts to add key privacy protections to Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a controversial law that the government has used to spy on Americans without a warrant. Now House Speaker Mike Johnson must decide whether to allow this powerful committee to continue thwarting reforms — or worse, renew Section 702 without any changes. “Johnson should reject these paths — and honor the wishes of the American people — by immediately scheduling a vote on strong reform legislation: the House Judiciary Committee’s bipartisan Protect Liberty and End Warrantless Surveillance Act,” Noah Chauvin writes. Read more

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AI-Powered Threats to Free Speech

A growing number of states are barring school libraries from carrying books that lawmakers have deemed offensive. These broad and often vague bans raise free speech concerns, fears that are magnified by the fact that some school boards are using artificial intelligence to decide which books fall under their state’s ban. “Again and again we’ve seen the limitations of these tools — they’re unreliable, unable to understand content and nuance, they’re biased and can disproportionately impact minority communities,” Emile Ayoub told Reuters. READ MORE

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Coming Up

VIRTUAL EVENT: The Missing Constitutional Right

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Wednesday, March 20, 3–4 p.m. ET



The right to vote is one of the foundations of democracy, yet it has never truly been available to all Americans. Author Richard Hasen argues in his new book, A Real Right to Vote

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, that a constitutional amendment would end tumultuous fights over the franchise for good. But could it be that simple? Join us for a live virtual event with Hasen and moderator Wilfred Codrington III in a discussion on how an amendment to the Constitution would enshrine the right to vote and what it would take to get there. RSVP today

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Produced in partnership with the NYU John Brademas Center

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News

Alice Clapman on the safeguards around mail voting // SUN SENTINEL

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Ames Grawert on crime trends // USA TODAY

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Lawrence Norden on how AI can contribute to election interference // TIME

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Ian Vandewalker on “guardian angel” donors // OPENSECRETS

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Michael Waldman on threats to the 2024 elections // MSNBC

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