It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Samuel Corum/Sipa USA

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

IT’S DECISION TIME, SPEAKER JOHNSON
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

We are days from a partial government shutdown. And there's no clear path ([link removed]) to avoiding it.

To recap how we got here:
* The federal government’s fiscal year starts on Oct. 1 every year.
* Congress is supposed to fund the government well ahead of that. But it didn’t reach a larger agreement.
* Instead, Congress passed ashort-term patch in September ([link removed]) last year.
* And another in November ([link removed]) .
* And yet another in January ([link removed]) .

Where we are now:
* Funding for some 20 percent of government agencies runs out Friday night.
* That includes some big agencies: The departments of Agriculture, Energy, Housing and Urban Development, and Transportation.
* The remaining agencies run out of funding next week, on March 8.
* Per our sources: House and Senate appropriators have essentially worked out the spending for the agencies running out of money Friday. But some differences remain, including over some social programs affected (WIC and SNAP benefits) and some policy ideas that often are kept out of appropriations bills but still perennially come up.
* The bigger issue is that House Republicans remain divided, per our sources, and their new Speaker Mike Johnson has not yet made a clear decision on the path forward and the end goal for him and his chamber.
* At the same time, the question of funding for Ukraine, which is now seeing losses ([link removed]) on the front, remains unresolved.

Even by recent congressional standards, we are in a time of indecision.

And we have a new House speaker who must — in coming days and weeks — make decisions that will affect most of the federal government, millions of Americans, Ukrainians’ frontline and his speakership.

We are told, assured even, that Speaker Johnson does not want a government shutdown ([link removed]) and has indicated to House Republicans that they should be ready for another short-term funding deal this week.

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Watch the clip in the player above.

Here are the winds blowing both in his direction (tailwinds) and against (headwinds).

Tailwinds
* Some consensus: The vast majority of House Republicans also do not want a shutdown.
* Johnson support: And even those who disagree with Johnson see him as trustworthy and a person of integrity. (A key difference with how they saw ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy.)
* The blame game: The House gets into town Wednesday night after a two-week break. Republicans understand that a lack of action on a major deadline — after 14 days away from the steering wheel — is a political disaster for them. And they would get blamed.
* There’s progress on the first deadline: Appropriators have nearly finished talks over the first four bills that are needed to fund the government — the ones for agencies whose funding runs out late Friday.

Headwinds
* House Freedom Caucus: Members sent Johnson a letter ([link removed]) last week, detailing 21 policy issues they want addressed in the spending fight. These range from the border to abortion to gas stoves. Those policy fights are real, but our reporting is that Johnson faces other, larger rifts in his conference.
* A mixed bag of priorities: The Freedom Caucus and other conservatives still want to cut the overall amount of spending by the federal government. AND they want any spending deal to include border security. AND they do not want Ukraine spending included. This whirlpool of issues is summed up in a stream-of-consciousness thread of fury ([link removed]) from Rep. Chip Roy of Texas in the past day.
* What some conservatives want now: is to NOT pass all of the appropriations bills, and instead extend current funding for the rest of the year. Such a move would lead to a 1 percent automatic cut in spending. This is part of the Fiscal Responsibility Act ([link removed].) , a trigger in the law meant to encourage lawmakers to pass appropriations bills.
* The “nos”: Some conservatives also do NOT want to support any temporary funding bill at all.
* Leap in procedure: Johnson likely cannot get some spending bills to the floor using normal procedure because that involves the House Rules Committee. On that committee sit three conservatives ([link removed]) who are part of the headwinds above and who can block bills. Instead, Johnson would likely need to go around the Rules Committee, a move that would require a two-thirds majority on the House floor.

Where does this leave things?

All four congressional leaders today said they want to avoid a government shutdown.

But it is clear — from all four offices involved, and the White House — that Speaker Mike Johnson needs to make some tough decisions to do that.

First: How and when to deal with Friday’s potential government shutdown?

And second: Then what? How and when do the border and Ukraine get debated and resolved?

One more thing to consider: March. The State of the Union is scheduled for March 7 ([link removed]) and, later that month, we could see President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump both earn enough primary delegates ([link removed]) to clinch their parties’ nominations.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: What lies ahead as Ukraine marks a somber 2-year anniversary ([link removed]) of Russia’s invasion.
* One Big Question: The Ukraine war was supposed to be a test of Western democracies coming together against a rising autocracy. But are we failing that test? New York Times columnist David Brooks and Washington Post associate editor Jonathan Capehart discuss ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: The boyfriend of a Russian American woman arrested in Russia describes the effort to bring her home ([link removed]) .
* Perspectives: A Ukrainian snowboard instructor on why he joined the fight ([link removed]) against Russia.

THE ‘UNCOMMITTED’ IN MICHIGAN

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Watch the segment in the player above.

By Frances Kai-Hwa Wang, @fkwang ([link removed])
Communities Correspondent, Detroit and Dearborn, Michigan

Faced with an open primary, Michigan voters have the option to vote for either the Republican or Democratic candidate of their choice until polls close Feb. 27 ([link removed]) .

But a new campaign called “Listen to Michigan” has sought to offer another choice: “uncommitted.” ([link removed])

Casting an “uncommitted” vote on the Democratic presidential primary ballot is intended as a show of discontent for President Joe Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war and a warning sign about support in a key swing state that could help determine the outcome of the general election.

The campaign to vote “uncommitted” is personal for many in Dearborn and Metro Detroit, an area with a large population of Muslim and Arab Americans, and strong ties to the Palestinian people directly affected by Israel’s war in Gaza.

“We have lost family members, we have lost friends, we have lost loved ones. … This community is made up of immigrants, first, second, third and so on, generations from that region. So this largely affects our community. Biden's core constituency — Democrats,” said Layla Elabed, a Listen to Michigan campaign manager and sister to Democratic state Rep. Rashida Tlaib.

“We've protested, we've demonstrated, we've done die-ins. We've used our social media to appeal for a permanent cease-fire. We've written to our representatives, our elected officials. We've passed city resolutions within our own communities,” Elabed said. “It seems that our rallying cries are not loud enough.”
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A sample Democratic ballot lists the options for voters, including a choice for “uncommitted.” Photo by Frances Kai-Hwa Wang/PBS NewsHour
Early on in the 2024 get-out-the-vote efforts, “it became very clear that [Muslim American voters] feel very betrayed by the current administration. People were feeling completely apathetic towards voting,” said Hira Khan, the interim executive director of Emgage Michigan, a nonprofit organization that educates and mobilizes Muslim American voters.

Organizers of the movement want to reiterate that voters have a choice — and a voice. At this stage in the run-up to the election, voters don't have to choose between Trump or Biden. Trump's so-called Muslim ban is not far from the minds of many Michigan voters and members of the Arab and Muslim communities across the U.S., but the fear that a Trump White House could once again impose such policies does not necessarily work in Biden's favor. The "uncommitted" vote is not an endorsement of Trump, but rather a rejection of Biden's policies on the war and an effort to show that their voices matter in U.S. politics.

“[Voting] ‘uncommitted’ provides them a pathway or an avenue to channel that energy and to use our democratic process to really voice their concern and dissatisfaction with the current government.” It is also in part a chance to create “a more civically engaged and less marginalized population in the future,” she added.

The PBS NewsHour spoke with several people at an “uncommitted” event on the University of Michigan campus last week to hear more about what message people arehoping to send to the president ([link removed]) .
More on the 2024 race from our coverage:
* Watch: How the Biden campaign is working to regain the support ([link removed]) of disillusioned Democratic voters.
* Live Results: Biden and Trump are strong favorites to win in Michigan’s presidential primary on Tuesday. Get the live results here ([link removed]) .
* Mark Your Calendars: Michigan’s Republican Party will hold congressional district conventions on March 2, which will allocate more delegates to their presidential candidates. And then, on March 5 it’s … *dramatic pause* … Super Tuesday! View our 2024 election calendar here ([link removed]) .
* Analysis: NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter discuss the political benefits and drawbacks ([link removed]) of Biden’s Israel support.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Matt Loffman, @mattloff ([link removed])
Deputy Senior Producer, Politics

If you’re feeling deja vu as you wait to see if Congress staves off a funding crisis and partial government shutdown by the end of the week, you’re not alone.

In fact, this is a familiar cycle. Since 1980, there have been 15 gaps in federal funding that have lasted for at least one day.

Our question: During how many of those funding gaps since 1980 has the federal government initiated its shutdown procedures (aka, resulting in closed agencies and furloughed employees)?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: How many U.S. presidents have also served as U.N. ambassador?

The answer: Exactly one ([link removed]) . That would be George H.W. Bush, who served in the role from 1971 to 1973. And as reader Brenda Radford pointed out, there have been five people who served as U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom ([link removed]) before later becoming president: John Adams, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren and James Buchanan.

Congratulations to our winners: Tim Smith and Joseph Mueller!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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