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Protesters during a rally in the Houthi-held capital Sanaa on February 7, 2024. (Getty Images)
Recent reports confirm that Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operatives are in Yemen and are actively helping the Houthis attack United States and allied vessels in the Red Sea.
In his latest analysis [[link removed]], Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu [[link removed]] examines the Houthis’ capabilities and explains why the US needs to dismantle Iran’s stronghold in the region.
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Key Insights
1. A high-ranking US admiral confirms the presence of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in Yemen.
The deputy commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, confirmed that members of the IRGC now have boots on the ground in Yemen, where they are operating alongside the Houthi militia and providing them with targeting assistance. The presence of the Iranian spy vessel Behshad in the Red Sea, where it has been providing intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) capabilities to the Houthis, further illuminates the scope of Iran’s efforts in Yemen. According to several news outlets, last week US forces allegedly attempted to conduct a cyberattack to cripple the Behshad and limit its ability to share intelligence with the Houthis. That the Biden administration resorted to a cyberattack rather than any of the military options at its disposal speaks to the staying power of its Obama-era Iran policy, which aims to avoid confrontation but only cedes the reins of escalation dominance to Tehran.
2. Limited preventive strikes are proving tactically—but not strategically—important.
The Houthis’ disruptive campaign against maritime trade in the Red Sea prompted the United States and United Kingdom to launch Operation Poseidon Archer, a series of preventive and punitive strikes against various Houthi assets. Operation Prosperity Guardian, another joint effort from the American and British navies, is also launching preventive strikes in Yemen. One such strike on January 16 destroyed several Houthi missiles still in their launch positions. American and British forces have focused some of their preventive actions on degrading the militia’s disruptive military capabilities, including its surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems and unmanned surface vehicles and drones. But the strategic value and scale of the West’s preventive strikes have thus far remained limited. The operations have fallen short of neutralizing the Iran-backed group’s critical capabilities and have barely attempted to dismantle the IRGC presence in Yemen. More importantly, the campaigns have failed to deter Iran or the Houthi leadership from launching continued broadsides.
3. Iran-supplied underwater drones join the Houthis’ arsenal.
On February 18, US CENTCOM announced that the Houthis’ arsenal now includes underwater naval drones supplied by Iran. According to the announcement, the drones, similar to the Iranian kamikaze underwater variants in the class, are a new addition to the Houthis’ disruptive military capabilities in missile and drone warfare. This new threat should be taken seriously. Underwater drones are more difficult to detect and intercept than surface vessels. Moreover, available evidence suggests that Tehran has established a growing underwater drone arsenal, featuring assets ranging from one-way-attack drones to the extra-large Nazir‑1 unmanned underwater vehicle. The Houthis’ new weapons could pose a significant threat to US Navy assets in the region.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Read the newsletter. [[link removed]] Go Deeper
MENA Defense Intelligence Digest | Assessing and Addressing the Houthi Threat [[link removed]]
In the previous installment [[link removed]] of the series, Can Kasapoğlu [[link removed]] analyzed Houthi efforts to disrupt trade and the valuable data Iran was gaining from these operations.
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Ukraine Military Situation Report | February 21 [[link removed]]
To keep up with the latest open-source intelligence from Ukraine, subscribe to Can Kasapoğlu [[link removed]]’s Ukraine Military Situation Report [[link removed]]. Read this week’s edition [[link removed]], which covers the fall of Avdiivka, Ukraine’s drone warfare in the Black Sea, and a potential Russian offensive toward Robotyne.
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It’s Time to Strike Back at Iran [[link removed]]
As Tehran’s proxies escalate their campaign of terror, Distinguished Fellow Michael R. Pompeo [[link removed]] and former Vice President Mike Pence discuss in the Wall Street Journal [[link removed]] how a strong US response against Iran could restore balance to the Middle East.
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