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THE FATE OF THE ISRAELI HOSTAGES DEPENDS ON PALESTINIANS RUNNING GAZA
– AND HAMAS’ FUTURE  
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Zvi Bar'el
February 22, 2024
Haaretz
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_ The postwar rehabilitation of Gaza, aided by Egypt and Qatar,
depends on the establishment of a Palestinian regime which, for now at
least, also depends of Yahya Sinwar agreeing – and there's no one in
Hamas strong enough to tell him what to do. _

Hamas' Yahya Sinwar. (Photo credit: John Minchillo / AP // Haaretz),

 

The Egyptian Defense Ministry on Saturday released several documents,
including maps, describing the preparations for the Yom Kippur War.
Releasing these documents for the first time after 50 years, seemingly
out of context, raised questions both in and out of Egypt, especially
since the timing wasn't related to any historic date like the
beginning of the war, or its end.

Retired Egyptian General Hossam Sowilam, former head of the Egyptian
army's Strategic Studies Center, has a very clear explanation. "The
release is intended to emphasize the Egyptian army's abilities to
defend its land
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There's a message here related to what's going on in Gaza and to the
regional threats on Egypt as a result, that is to say, the Egyptian
army has the power and ability to deter and deal with all the
threats."

 
A demonstrator holds a sign and a candle during a rally calling for
the release of hostages in Tel Aviv on Tuesday.  (Photo credit: Dylan
Martinez / Reuters  //  Haaretz)
In the absence of an official explanation, it is not altogether clear
if this was the intention of the Egyptian army or the president, Abdel
Fattah al-Sissi, by releasing all these documents. But the analyses in
Egypt and the reports of the documents in the Arab media have a life
of their own. According to them it seems Egypt wants to demonstrate
its fear of the growing threat that Israel expands the war to Rafah
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cause more than a million of residents to breach the separation fence
and enter Sinai.

Suspending the talks about releasing the hostages, the appalling
humanitarian situation in Gaza, the public political and military talk
in Israel about preparations for an offensive in Rafah, the
approaching Ramadan month and the American veto in the UN Security
Council to force a cease-fire in Gaza, are forcing Egypt to try to
resume the talks. This is despite the fact that neither Egypt, nor
Hamas or Qatar have any new proposals that could generate a new deal
in the near future. Summoning Hamas' delegation, headed by Ismail
Haniyeh and Khalil Al-Haya, Yahya Sinwar's deputy, to Cairo, is an
important move in this direction. It is added to Qatar's message to
Mossad head David Barnea that it was confirmed the medicines had been
passed to the hostages.

"Egypt, Qatar and the United States are committed to keep the
negotiations alive and prove there's a dynamics of talks to delay as
much as possible the Israeli military move planned in Rafah," a senior
Palestinian Authority official tells Haaretz.

He says the talks in Cairo
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deal only with releasing the hostages and expanding the humanitarian
aid and supervising its distribution. It's also about planning the
next stage that consists of running Gaza by means of a civilian
Palestinian administration, returning the residents who moved to the
south of the strip to their homes in the north and Hamas' future.

"It's a whole totality that requires agreements on three levels:
between Egypt and Qatar and Hamas leadership out of Gaza on the road
map to running Gaza; between Hamas out of Gaza and Yahya Sinwar on the
hostages and the strip's future, and between Israel and the United
States on the guarantees they're prepared to give the Palestinian
Authority and in general to the idea of Gaza being run by the
authority,"the official says.

 
Yayha Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, and other Hamas leaders march in Gaza
in 2017.  (Photo credit: Mahmud Hams/Agence France-Presse (AFP)  //
 Haaretz)
The working assumption is that despite the communication difficulties
between the leadership of Hamas out of Gaza and Sinwar, the latter is
still functioning and in charge of making decisions on the ground.
There is no relevance at the moment to the issue the television
channels like to deal with, of whether Sinwar would agree to go on
exile or fall on his sword as a shahid rather than surrender. But at
least statistics show that organizations' leaders, including Osama Bin
Laden, ISIS Abu Bachar al-Baghdadi and senior commanders in their
organizations preferred to send suicide combatants to battle rather
than volunteer to die. Attributing the slogan "victory or a martyr's
death" to Hamas, as another proof of Sinwar or his partners' readiness
to sacrifice themselves, does historic injustice to the Egyptian army,
whose soldiers adopted it in the Yom Kippur War.

From the point of view of all those involved, Sinwar's continued
presence is vital to achieve practical results in the talks of
releasing the hostages. Haniyeh or Khalil al-Haya cannot enter Gaza
and free the hostages 
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if Sinwar is killled, and it is not known how the other senior leaders
that remain, like Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa, or Nizar Awad Allah,
who contended against Sinwar for Hamas leadership in the 2021
election, are expected to act.

On the other hand, it's hard to assess the extent to which Haniyeh can
influence Sinwar and in the circumstances created by the war, the
status and strength of the Shura Council, the supreme Hamas body
dictating its political and ideological moves.

 
An UNRWA school used as a temporary shelter for displaced people in
Gaza City this month.  (Photo credit: Dawoud Abo Alkas/Anadolu via
Agence France-Presse (AFP)  //  Haaretz)
In normal times the organization hierarchy dictated the organization's
policy, but now it is doubtful if a body that can dictate Sinwar's
moves exists, especially after it transpired that a large part of
Hamas' leadership hadn't been aware of the intention to attack Israel.

There is also the question of the pressure Qatar and Egypt can exert
on Sinwar. In contrast, before the war each of the relevant states had
a clear role in maintaining Hamas' status in the Strip. Qatar was the
financier
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together with Turkey served as a shelter state for Hamas' leadership
out of Gaza. Egypt held the key to Gaza's economic oxygen pipe. Today
things have changed. Qatar can guarantee or deny shelter to Hamas
leadership out of Gaza, but it is not clear to what extent the future
of the movement's leaders bothers Sinwar. Haniyeh isn't exactly a
bosom friend. Egypt has a vital role, perhaps even more than Qatar,
about managing Gaza, rehabilitating it, mainly because of its ability
to control the movement of residents and merchandise to and from Gaza.
But to implement its influence it needs at least a cease fire and
later an agreed local rule it can cooperate with.

Setting up such a rule doesn't depend only on Israel's or the United
States' will. The agreement of Hamas' leadership out of Gaza, the PLO,
and Sinwar's too must be achieved. The fate of the hostages
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depends not only on agreeing on the number and identity of the
Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange, or the extent of the
humanitarian aid. It depends on a long cease-fire that will be used to
build an outline and setting up an agreed Palestinian administration
that will also ensure Hamas' future.

* Gaza
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* Hostages
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* Hamas
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* Ceasefire
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* Israel-Gaza War
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* Palestine
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* Egypt
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* Qatar
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* West Bank
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* Palestinians
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* Yahya Sinwar
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* Rafah
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* Genocide
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* Israeli bombing
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* IDF
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* Occupied Territories
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* Palestinian prisoners
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* U.S.-Israel relations
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* Palestinian State
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* Two-state Solution
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* Benjamin Netanyahu
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