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Welcome Corona Question Corner (CQC), a new twice a week offering written by the Commonwealth Fund’s Eric Schneider, M.D. In each installment, Dr. Schneider will answer our questions about coronavirus using his own knowledge of medicine, health care research, and analogies ranging from baseball to bad television. Also, with levity and hope.
Below you'll find the first full installment of the CQC. If you enjoy it, and would like to receive more, please subscribe. After this first issue the only way to get CQC is to be subscribed.
If you have a question for Dr. Schneider you can submit it to [email protected] and, if selected, he will publish and answer (to the best of his ability) your question without disclosing your name or affiliation. We’re all in this together. Please wash your hands before proceeding.
FINE PRINT DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed here are not official policy of the Commonwealth Fund. They are not a substitute for medical advice from a health professional, directives from government or public health authorities, or your own good judgement.
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How long can the virus live on surfaces? Or more precisely, since March Madness was cancelled, if I make a shot with my basketball and it swishes, could it get coronavirus on it from someone else's basketball that also swished in before?
As of March 26, 2020.
CQC is at the white board, mapping this complex technical challenge. First, you seem to be skilled if you are not hitting the rim or throwing air balls. If you are an NBA player or your pick-up game involves NBA players, you can easily calculate your risk. Despite a shortage of tests, all NBA players have been tested. If their tests are negative, your net is safe. But if your game does not involve NBA players with negative test results? Call a timeout. What part of basketball does not involve close contact? All team sports have been banned. Even boxing. Especially boxing. Game over!
You say you are shooting alone. Ahh, the basketball version of Bowling Alone. That book documented a decline since the 1950’s in social capital. Americans don’t gather together like they used to. How ironic that Americans have been preparing for this moment since the 1950s. But no one is an island. Who was on the court before you? Is the virus that causes COVID-19 hanging from the net for dear life while you dribble and set for your shot?
Experts debate whether viruses should be classified as living things or just toxic chemicals. While experts debate whether viruses are alive, let’s go to the journals. A recent study says that for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes the COVID-19 disease can “live” for up to three days on plastic and steel, but only for a matter of hours on cardboard and copper. Although the virus that causes COVID-19 can be detected on surfaces for that long, all coronaviruses are very fragile when stored outside the refrigerator in the open air. A study of another coronavirus,
influenza, showed that virus on plastic or steel lost its punch after eight hours. On tissues, cloth, and cardboard, it may be infectious for less than 30 minutes. COVID-19 is not the flu. It is more dangerous if you catch it. But catching coronaviruses from surfaces is much more difficult than you might imagine.
On to basketballs and nets. Most basketballs are made of rubber—a plastic. Nets are still nylon. Nylon is a plastic. And if you hit the rim (you never do, right?), that’s made of steel or plastic. If someone’s ball drops the COVID-19 virus on the rim or net, that three-pointer at the buzzer could be a game-changer in more ways than one. CQC would opt for a one-day timeout between shooters on the court, especially in March when the virus may persist more easily because of cold weather.
By the way, this handy evidence applies to a lot of situations. Pumping gas? Wipe that nozzle between users. Groceries? Wipe down the plastic covered ones before you bring them into your house. Rims and nets? Wipe those only if you are slam-dunking like LeBron! | |
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Once a person has a positive COVID-19 test, how long are they a risk to infect others?
As of March 26, 2020.
It appears that people who are infected may be most contagious just before symptoms. They may be contagious even if they never had symptoms. A smattering of small case studies suggest that that people with confirmed COVID-19 are unlikely to transmit the virus 10 days after their first symptoms. Whatever virus they shed after their symptoms go away may be crippled by their immune systems. Crippled virus may not infect others. But what if they have no symptoms? The evidence is thin so we have to wait for better data.
Here is one way data can make a difference: South Korea has done more testing of its population than any other country. Findings were surprising. About half of all cases (people with positive test results) were among people under 50 years of age. Most of these younger people had mild symptoms or never had symptoms at all. Note the contrast with Italy, which found more cases among older people. What gives? The Italian picture is what you see when you only test sick people.
Evidence is accumulating that we need to go full South Korea as soon as possible. If the US ends up with the South Korea trend, closing universities and having working-age adults work from home will have been a brilliant first step. The South Korea experience also implies that in our daily lives we must act as if anyone we come into contact with may be shedding COVID-19 virus. But no need to panic. Just keep washing hands, not touching your face, and staying six feet away from people. Not just from sick people, but from everyone. That is the true mantra of physical distancing (what some call social distancing). | |
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