February 19, 2024
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Does Special Counsel Report + Calls for Dem SCOTUS Retirements = Michelle Obama for President?
By Rick Manning
A few headlines rang the news that some on the left are targeting Supreme Court Justice Sonya Sotomayor in a campaign to pressure her to resign from the Court now, while a Democrat still sits in the White House.
Citing fear of a replay of the Ruth Bader Ginsburg decision to not resign to allow then-President Barack Obama to pick her successor, this call could be little more than continuing chatter amplified by the Trump Derangement Syndrome which dominates the left’s thinking. But what if it is more than that?
Last week’s Special Counsel report on President Joe Biden’s almost career long violations of our nation’s classified documents laws, laid bare the biggest problem facing Democrats in 2024 – the likelihood that Biden will lose to Donald Trump.
No honest observer of President Biden’s performance and capacity over the past three years did not know or at least have a strong suspicion that he is impaired to some extent. The Special Counsel report which referred to Biden as, “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” put a dagger in the President’s re-election campaign.
It has been no secret that for quite some time, the Democrats have been trying to figure out what to do about Biden to keep him from having the Party nomination in 2024. The main stumbling block has been the Kamala Harris problem.
Kamala would get smoked by Trump in November in almost every poll taken, so replacing Biden with her doesn’t solve their dilemma. However, as far back as Jan. 2022, Democratic Party leaders and insiders have floated the idea of putting Vice President Harris on the Supreme Court.
A Politico article describing these discussions quotes Steve Maviglio, a Democratic strategist from California calling it a “Win-win.” Maviglio arguing that Harris “checks a lot of boxes: A woman of color, a liberal, being smart on a lot of issues, having experience,” while noting that, “she’s not horribly popular as vice president, like it or not.”
The same 2022 article quotes an advisor to major Democratic donors as saying a Supreme Court appointment would “solve a lot of problems.” With another Democratic strategist saying, “If it guarantees she never runs for [president] again” she could support a Supreme Court appointment.
To sum it up, the Democrats have an incumbent president who has effectively been mentally disqualified for reelection by the Special Counsel they appointed.
They have a Vice President who would be the natural successor who they do not believe is a credible candidate.
They have a virtually non-existent primary process so no natural successor would be entering their August convention with momentum outside of their leadership’s control.
And they have Michelle Obama – a relatively unsullied candidate waiting in the wings to be anointed.
Into this mix, we now are hearing renewed calls for an opening to be created on the Supreme Court.
Call me cynical, but in the mind of the swamp where defeating Donald Trump is the only imperative, the Special Counsel’s report on the heels of renewed calls for a liberal Justice to step down to provide space for Kamala Harris provides the pathway to reset the presidential race for Michelle Obama without a bloody internal war might just add up.
The author is president of Americans for Limited Government.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/02/does-special-counsel-report-calls-for-dem-scotus-retirements-michelle-obama-for-president/
Video: Special Counsel Hur to Testify before Congress
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vl1TNnylWhI
Incumbent presidents are still very hard to defeat: 69 percent election rate
By Robert Romano
In U.S. history, incumbent presidents — defined as those sitting in office and standing for another term — have run for election 33 times. They won 23 times and lost 10 times, a 69.7 percent victory rate and 30.3 percent defeat rate.
The losers were John Adams in 1800, John Quincy Adams in 1828, Martin Van Buren in 1840, Grover Cleveland in 1888, Benjamin Harrison in 1892, William Howard Taft in 1912, Herbert Hoover in 1932, Jimmy Carter in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Donald Trump in 2020.
Whereas, in years when there was an open seat in the White House, that is, when the sitting, incumbent president was not on the ballot, the incumbent party won 11 times and lost 14 times, a 44 percent victory rate, and 56 percent defeat rate.
The incumbent parties won open seat presidential elections in 1796, 1808, 1816, 1836, 1856, 1868, 1876, 1880, 1908, 1928 and 1988. And they lost in 1824, 1840, 1844, 1848, 1852, 1884, 1896, 1920, 1952, 1960, 1968, 2000, 2008 and 2016.
The last time it was a winner was when the sitting Vice President George H.W. Bush won in 1988. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1928 when the incumbent party won an open seat.
Whereas, with an incumbent not seeking another term, the most recent examples were Lyndon Johnson in 1968 and Harry Truman in 1952, with the incumbent Democrats losing both contests.
When a Vice President had become President either through death or resignation, in recent history, it was a mixed bag, Gerald Ford lost in 1976, Lyndon Johnson won in 1964 and Harry Truman won in 1948.
In Dec. 2023, a CBS News-YouGov poll revealed that 39 percent of Democrats thought incumbent President Biden should step aside and not run for reelection, and instead let someone else run. 61 percent thought he should run.
But the historical fact remains that incumbents do better than incumbent parties vying for an open seat.
Biden may not lose a single state in the primary, as is often the case for incumbent presidents, whether strong ones like Barack Obama in 2012 or weak ones like George H.W. Bush in 1992.
If for no other reason, it is the incumbency advantage that may compel Biden to ultimately remain on the ballot in 2024 (and Democrats to begrudgingly support that endeavor) as he keeps a commanding lead in the Democratic primary as the incumbent.
Meaning, even at 81 years old, the candidate who always has the best chance of winning remains the sitting, incumbent president. Even Joe Biden.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/02/incumbent-presidents-are-still-very-hard-to-defeat-69-percent-election-rate/