Republicans have been frantically trying to dismiss Democrat Tom Suozzi’s eight-point victory in Tuesday’s Long Island special election as a one-off with no wider significance. According to their talking points, Suozzi had the advantage of being well known in the district as a former incumbent; the Santos scandal depressed Republican turnout; Suozzi abandoned Biden and embraced the Republican position on immigration; the unknown GOP candidate, Mazi Pilip, equivocated on whether she supported Trump, also reducing turnout; then there was that snowstorm, and Democrats had disproportionately voted early.

Suozzi’s win "is in no way a bellwether of what’s going to happen this fall," House Speaker Mike Johnson declared, and "has nothing to do on the efforts going forward."

Dream on.

For starters, both parties have converged on a tougher border policy. Or at least they did until Trump blew up the carefully negotiated compromise and forced the Senate to kill its own bill, much of which reflected Republican demands. That gives Democrats an advantage on the immigration issue that extends far beyond Long Island. They’re serious about wanting to solve the problem while Republicans play partisan games.

Second, Trump’s loyalty tests for congressional Republican candidates will divide his party and depress turnout, especially in swing suburban districts like Long Island’s. "This very foolish woman, Mazi Melesa Pilip … didn’t endorse me and tried to ‘straddle the fence,’ when she would have easily WON," Trump wrote on his social media site.

Trump in turn did not endorse her and then asserted that MAGA supporters did not turn out. For once, Trump may well be truthful on that point. Putting his own vanity first, Trump will go on wrecking the chances of more moderate Republican candidates.

The Democrats, by contrast, were a model of unity and effective organizing. While Democrats outspent Republicans on TV advertising, far more important was the Democrats’ formidable ground game, which has gotten too little attention.

Last fall, progressive Democrats formed a group called Battleground New York, expressly to take back Republican-held House seats and defend Democratic ones. The group’s partners include SEIU 1199, the big health care union; CWA District 1; Planned Parenthood Empire State Acts; Indivisible; and the Working Families Party. They were launched with initial funding of $10 million, much of it from donors associated with the Democracy Alliance.

All of these groups are superb at the ground game of retail politics, using the full tool kit of texting, phone banks, door-knocking, and get-out-the-vote help. The Suozzi-Pilip race was the first field test of their strategy. Two national groups, Grassroots Democrats HQ and Blue Future, contributed money to finance stipends for 75 youth field organizers. The field effort and phone-banking were aided by other national groups such as Activate America and Swing Left, which provide a model for this brand of retail politics in the rest of the country.

Even more impressive was the degree of party unity, in sharp contrast to the Republican divisions promoted by Trump. Tom Suozzi is one of the most centrist Democrats in the House. He is not the sort of Democrat ordinarily esteemed by the Working Families Party or SEIU 1199. But all of these groups grasped the stakes in this election and worked their hearts out to take back a Republican House seat. Primary fights between progressive Democrats and centrist ones are battles for another day.

The November 2024 election will be decided in large part by turnout. While pundits have emphasized the supposedly depressed and divided Democratic base, they have largely missed the Democratic advantage in organizing.