Daily News Brief

February 16, 2024

Editor’s Note: There will be no Daily News Brief on Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents’ Day.

Top of the Agenda

Opposition leader Alexei Navalny died today (FT) in a Russian prison, the prison service and Russian media reported. A lawyer for Navalny is traveling to the Arctic town where he was jailed in a maximum security prison to confirm the news, while the Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin was notified of the death. Officials around the world immediately voiced statements of concern. “If it is confirmed, it is a terrible tragedy. And given the Russian government’s long and sordid history of doing harm to its opponents, it raises real and obvious questions about what happened here,” White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told NPR. 

Navalny, aged forty-seven, became one of Putin’s most outspoken and well-known critics through decades of activism that included (Reuters) his voluntary return to Russia in 2021 after being treated for poisoning. He was a vocal opponent of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The prison service said Navalny felt ill almost immediately after a walk today and lost consciousness. Video footage from yesterday shows him appearing at a prison hearing. If the news is confirmed, Navalny’s chief of staff posted, “then it’s not ‘Navalny died,’ but ‘Putin killed Navalny.’”

Analysis

“Navalny will be forever in Russian history . In terrible prison conditions, he spoke against Putin's criminal war against Ukraine, against Putin's criminal regime, and for a better, more honest and kind Russia,” the University of Chicago’s Konstantin Sonin posts.

"[T]he war against Ukraine has turned into a stress test for Russia’s leadership and regime stability . The Kremlin has stabilized the political system after the mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the now-deceased leader of the private military company Wagner Group, and Putin remains popular (to the extent that approval ratings are meaningful in an autocratic society),” CFR expert Liana Fix and the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Maria Snegovaya write in this CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum. “However, internal Russian elite politics and competition are difficult to decipher from the outside and can lead to unexpected outcomes and surprising reshuffles.”

Pacific Rim

The move will unlock (Nikkei) government funding for the industry after a fall in nickel prices. Nickel is an important component in electric vehicle batteries.

Cuba/South Korea: Seoul will open (AP) ambassador-level relations with Havana, South Korea’s foreign ministry announced on Wednesday. South Korea’s presidential office said yesterday that the move would deal a “political and psychological blow” to North Korea, which depends on a small number of Cold War-era allies. North Korea has not commented on the matter.

South and Central Asia

The bank will channel (Reuters) around $300 million through UN agencies and other international organizations, bypassing the Taliban government. It marks the first time the bank has sent its own money to Afghanistan since the Taliban took power in 2021. The funds will go toward supporting basic needs such as food, health, education, employment, and water.

This Backgrounder by Lindsay Maizland looks at how the Taliban have ruled Afghanistan.

India: The opposition Indian National Congress party said its bank accounts were frozen (Bloomberg) earlier this week before being temporarily restored today. The party has previously accused the ruling government of using law enforcement agencies to target them politically. The freeze affects the party’s ability to campaign just months before national elections. 

Middle East and North Africa

The cyberattack targeted an Iranian vessel that was helping Yemen-based Houthi rebels pinpoint merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, an unnamed U.S. official told the New York Times. The attack was part of the Joe Biden administration’s response to an Iran-backed militia attack in Jordan that killed three U.S. soldiers last month. A Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment.

At this CFR meeting, experts discuss the fallout from the drone strike on the U.S. base in Jordan.  

Kuwait: The government, elected last June, dissolved parliament (The National) yesterday amid political gridlock. Kuwait’s constitution mandates that general elections now be held within two months, which would mark the fourth such vote in four years.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Yesterday’s ruling said that the election must be held (FT) as soon as possible and that President Macky Sall’s term “cannot be extended.” Earlier this month, Senegal’s legislature passed Sall’s proposal to postpone the vote from February 25 to December 15; Sall would remain in power until then. 

Zambia: The government is prepared (Bloomberg) to purchase all crops grown in the country for citizens amid a food shortage, Zambia’s president said yesterday. A drought has strained water resources, putting the country’s food supplies and hydropower generation at risk.

Europe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is visiting (NYT) France and Germany today to sign security agreements with assurances regarding arms supplies and intelligence sharing. The visits come a day before Zelenskyy is slated to appear at the Munich Security Conference and as Kyiv said it is shifting (NYT) its positions in the embattled town of Avdiivka. U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the threat of a Russian advance in Avdiivka is “in very large part” because Ukrainian forces are “running out of artillery ammunition.” 

In this In Brief, CFR expert Max Boot explains how Ukraine could face defeat if U.S. aid falters.

Americas

The deals cover (Reuters) joint operations to combat activities such as drug and weapons trafficking and illegal fishing. President Daniel Noboa Azín ratified the two agreements yesterday after they had been signed by his predecessor last year and greenlit by Ecuador’s constitutional court. 

Venezuela: The government ordered (AP) the UN human rights office in the country to close yesterday and its staff to leave within seventy-two hours. Caracas accused the office of conspiring against the government, without pointing to specific evidence. A spokesperson for the UN high commissioner for human rights said she was concerned by the move and is currently evaluating next steps. 

United States

The U.S. military is tracking (Axios) Russia’s “troubling” plans for an anti-satellite weapon, spokesperson John Kirby said yesterday. His comments were prompted by a call from House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-OH) to declassify information regarding a “serious national security threat.” 

Friday Editor’s Pick

Der Spiegel documents how Finland is countering the trend of rising homelessness across Europe and has set its sights on eliminating the issue by 2027. 

Council on Foreign Relations

58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065

1777 F Street, NW — Washington, DC 20006

Shop the CFR Store

Forward This Email

Manage Your Email Preferences