Daily News Brief

February 15, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Israel carried out (NYT) air strikes on multiple targets in southern Lebanon yesterday in response to a rocket attack earlier in the day that killed an Israeli soldier, Israel’s military said. Lebanese militant group Hezbollah did not immediately claim responsibility for the attack on Israel, but said three of its fighters were killed in the Israeli strikes. The escalation comes after (WaPo) months of lower-scale violence across the border and Western diplomatic efforts to contain regional tensions. Hezbollah is one of the groups aligned with Iran that has said it is supporting Palestinian militant group Hamas amid the current Israel-Hamas war. 

Talks to contain Israel-Hezbollah tensions in recent weeks have weighed the possibility of new protocols for a non-demarcated land border zone between Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah’s leader has said that the group would not participate in such talks until there is a cease-fire in Gaza. France earlier this week delivered a proposal to Lebanon that called for a border buffer zone. After yesterday’s strikes, both Israeli and Hezbollah officials warned they may take further action.

Analysis

“The attacks Wednesday showed attention is shifting to Lebanon as the war in Gaza slows. It was unclear whether Israel would expand the assault beyond Hezbollah near the border to other Lebanese targets farther north,” the Washington Post’s Sarah Dadouch writes. 

“The war in the Gaza Strip has earned the [Iran-aligned] axis newfound support and prompted it to take military action against U.S. troops, Israeli forces, and international shipping,” the German Institute for International and Security Affairs’ Hamidreza Azizi and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies’ Hanna Notte write for Foreign Affairs. “There are worrisome signs that Russia might enable Hezbollah in a potential confrontation with Israel, perhaps through sophisticated electronic warfare.”

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Pacific Rim

The carmaker said it will consider (FT) different scenarios for the future of its business in China’s Xinjiang region after a prominent researcher reported yesterday that forced labor could have been used in a joint venture that built Volkswagen’s test track for cars.

Japan: The country’s economy fell (Kyodo) into a recession in the fourth quarter of last year over weak domestic demand and slid in size below Germany’s, new government figures show. It is now the world’s fourth-largest rather than third-largest economy. 

South and Central Asia

The campaign finance mechanism championed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government allowed (Bloomberg) firms and individuals to make anonymous donations to political parties. The court said in its unanimous ruling today that voters had a right to access funding information.

India: Government officials and representatives of farmers unions are meeting (Reuters) today to discuss union demands for higher crop prices. Thousands of farmers have attended protests on the matter this week.

Middle East and North Africa

Israeli forces entered (CNN) Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis today after telling civilians sheltering in the hospital to evacuate in what was part of their operations to target Hamas. An Israeli military spokesperson said Hamas had previously held hostages at the hospital. Nasser is one of a few hospitals still operating in the Gaza Strip and a World Health Organization (WHO) official warned ( NYT) that it could soon cease to function. At least ten civilians were killed in the recent hostilities, the WHO official said. 

This In Brief by CFR’s Christina Bouri and Diana Roy look at Gaza’s humanitarian crisis.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Senior officials from both countries attended (AP) three days of talks this week to draft a memorandum of understanding regarding plans for a Kenya-led police deployment to Haiti. Kenya’s Supreme Court ruled against the plan last month, but Kenya’s president has said he would appeal the ruling.

DRC/South Africa: A bomb attack on a military base in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) killed (Reuters) two South African soldiers today, South Africa’s military said. Another 2,900 South African troops will soon join its current contingent in the Congo to fight armed groups, Pretoria said earlier this week.

This timeline traces the legacy of conflict intervention in the DRC. 

Europe

The center-right government’s bill, which is backed (AP) by four left-wing parties and the main opposition party, is being considered in parliament today. If the bill is passed, Greece would become the first Orthodox Christian country to legalize same-sex marriage, despite opposition from the Greek Church.

Germany/Greece/Turkey: Greece and Turkey will formally join (Bloomberg) a German-led initiative to bolster Europe’s missile defense capabilities, Germany’s defense minister said today. The project was first announced in 2022; Greek and Turkish participation will grow the initiative’s membership to twenty-one countries.

Americas

Ecuadoreans will vote (Reuters) on April 21 on eleven questions that include whether gun laws should be stricter near prisons and whether jail sentences for some offenses should be increased amid an ongoing crime wave. 

For the Latin America’s Moment blog, CFR expert Will Freeman discusses whether Ecuador can avoid becoming a narco-state.

Brazil: Researchers calculated that the Amazon Rainforest could reach (The Guardian) a “tipping point” by 2050, beyond which its ecosystems could not recover from destruction. Scientists have debated such a threshold for the rain forest’s ecosystem for years, but the new report measures the risk in more complexity based on five drivers of water stress.

United States

President Joe Biden signed an executive order (CBS) yesterday deferring the removal of most Palestinian migrants for eighteen months, citing the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian territories. The order is expected to protect several thousand people.

Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter incorrectly referred to Prabowo Subianto as the Indonesian ruling party’s presidential candidate. The ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle’s candidate was Ganjar Pranowo.

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