This week we’re looking at debt forecasts, welfare payments to immigrants and if we're all £10,000 worse off since 2010? 

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FACT CHECKS


** Think tank did not estimate that the average person is ‘over £10,000 a year’ worse off since 2010 ([link removed])
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During Prime Minister’s Questions on 7 February, Labour MP Janet Daby repeated a claim made by the party’s deputy leader Angela Rayner MP in Parliament in January—that a think tank had found that “on average, people are over £10,000 a year worse off” after 14 years of Conservative government.

This isn’t correct, the Centre for Cities said that if the economy had continued to grow at the same pace between 2010 and 2022 as it had done between 1998 and 2010 then the average person would have accrued £10,200 overall in additional disposable income.


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** Underlying debt is forecast to be higher in five years’ time than it is currently ([link removed])
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In an interview on 8 February between chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott MP and Radio 4’s PM presenter Evan Davis, Ms Trott appeared to claim Mr Davis was wrong to say debt is forecast to be higher in five years’ time than it is currently.

It's possible that some confusion may have arisen from the fact that Ms Trott was initially referring to the government's fiscal rules, while Mr Davis seems to have been referring to whether debt would be higher at the end of the forecast period than it is currently.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that underlying debt will be 92.8% of GDP in 2028/29, compared to 89% in 2023/24. The figures do show that underlying debt is forecast to begin falling at the end of the period.


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** Welfare payments to immigrants don’t cost £500 billion a year ([link removed])
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A post circulating widely on social media says that “Since 1997 over 12 million immigrants have entered Britain. 80% remain firmly dependent on Welfare. Total cost is £50k per person pa [per annum]. This is a staggering amount of money. Close to £500 billion. It’s destroying our National economy.”

While the post slightly understates the scale of inward migration since 1997 we can find no evidence that 80% of migrants who arrived during that period are ‘dependent on welfare’. The Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) has also confirmed to Full Fact that these posts have no factual basis.


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MORE FACT CHECKS
Also this week...
* Poll suggests British Muslim voters’ support for Labour has fallen by 30%, not by half ([link removed])
* Cyclist’s video does not show Rishi Sunak’s wife using Instagram while driving ([link removed])
* Screenshot of Telegraph article on migration shared with different image ([link removed])

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