It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Nathan Howard/Reuters

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

THE GOP DISSENTERS
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

In the early hours of this morning, a group of Republicans joined with most Democrats in the U.S. Senate to pass a $95 billion foreign aid bill that includes funds for Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific region.

The bill’s fate in the House of Representative is not clear, with House Speaker Mike Johnson signaling ([link removed]) he will not bring it up for a vote.

But that large group of Republicans who broke with the majority of their party got us thinking: In the past 14 months, it is no longer big-name coalitions like the Freedom Caucus responsible for dissent. Instead, there are shifting groups within the Republican Party who have repeatedly steered the ship of Congress.

This Senate group rebelled against the hard right. But at other times, the hard right was the course-altering rebellion. We thought we’d take a look at five moments of resistance in this Congress, as a way of highlighting the new power players who have emerged in the Republican Party since last year.

Vote: $95 billion Ukraine, Israel, Indo-Pacific aid
* When: Today, Feb. 13 ([link removed])
* Outcome: Passed the Senate 70-29, with 22 Republican “yes” votes.
* GOP “yes” votes: Sens. Boozman, Capito, Cassidy, Cornyn, Cramer, Crapo, Ernst, Grassley, Hoeven, Kennedy, McConnell, Moran, Murkowski, Risch, Romney, Sullivan, Thune, Tillis, Wicker and Young.
* Why they split: This group ended up to be a near majority of Senate Republicans, but fell just short. Even so, they took a politically precarious position with some in their base. They are defense hawks and moderates who came together largely because they see Russia as a global threat and see aiding Ukraine as pivotal to avoiding future conflict.

Vote: Impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas
* When: Last Tuesday ([link removed]) , Feb. 6
* Outcome: Failed in the House, 214-216, with 3 Republican “no” votes.
* GOP members: Reps. Buck, Gallagher, and McClintock. (A fourth Republican voted no for procedural reasons.)
* Why they split: These three members did not believe there was enough evidence to impeach Mayorkas and withstood enormous pressure to vote no and temporarily squash the effort.

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This evening, House GOP is expected to try to impeach Mayorkas again. Watch the House proceedings in the player above.
* Note: We expect a do-over of this vote ([link removed]) with a Republican who was absent last week attending and changing the outcome.

Vote: To oust Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the House
* When: Oct. 3, 2023 ([link removed])
* Outcome: Passed the House 216-210 with eight Republican “yes” votes.
* GOP members: Reps. Biggs, Buck, Burchett, Crane, Gaetz, Good, Mace, and Rosendale.
* Why they split: There were quite a few layers here. This group opposed McCarthy’s bipartisan debt-ceiling and spending deals, saying they were not in line with what conservatives had expected from the California Republican. But this was also personal, with this group saying McCarthy had personally lost their trust and was not fit to lead ([link removed]) .

Vote: Rule to bring up Defense appropriations bill
* When: Sept. 19, 2023 ([link removed])
* Outcome: Failed in the House, 212-214 with five Republican “no” votes.
* GOP members: Reps. Biggs, Bishop, Buck, Norman, and Rosendale.
* Why they split: This was a key moment — the moment McCarthy started to lose his grip on power. Conservatives wanted significant spending cuts in appropriations bills as McCarthy negotiated deals to avoid government shutdowns. But he refused to give them a clear “topline” figure for total spending. South Carolina’s Ralph Norman drew a rare hard line ([link removed]) , galvanizing a group of rebels to block his party from even considering a defense spending bill before they knew the precise end amount of spending involved.

Votes: To elect a House speaker
* When: Jan. 3, 2023 ([link removed])
* Outcome: Failed to elect a speaker with 20 Republicans voting for someone other than McCarthy at the end of Day 1.
* GOP members: Reps. Biggs, Bishop, Boebert, Brecheen, Cloud, Clyde, Crane, Donalds, Gaetz, Good, Gosar, Harris, Luna, Miller, Norman, Ogles, Perry, Rosendale, Roy, and Self.
* Why split: The group that set the tone for the 118th Congress and opened up the rebel dynamic. These twenty members largely did not trust McCarthy and wanted others to be House speaker. That is not unusual. But what was unprecedented in modern times was the decision by this group to oppose him on the floor, despite the majority support he had in the Republican conference. Each had different reasons, but this vote was not just a statement about McCarthy but about members defying the majority will of their party and going their own direction.
* Note: By Day 4 ([link removed]) of voting on the speakership, 14 of these members switched to McCarthy. That was the result of behind-closed-doors guarantees he gave them. Only Biggs, Boebert, Crane, Gaetz, Good, Rosendale have continued their rebellion all the way to the end of the speaker race.

What does this tell us?

This reinforces some things you may know — including that we are in unusual times ([link removed]) .

But it also highlights something you may not. While the House in particular has been dominated by dysfunction in the past year, there is a pattern. Big issues are tests of will power and tests of whether some of the members of these groups think the substance or the politics are large enough to force them into a particular vote.

The names on these lists will continue to be key ones to watch.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Read: Fact-checking Trump’s comments urging Russia to invade ‘delinquent’ NATO members ([link removed]) , courtesy of the Associated Press.
* One Big Question: What would a U.S. relationship with NATO look like under another Trump presidency? Kurt Volker, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, weighs in ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: Why some governors turned down a food assistance program ([link removed]) for children in their states.
* Perspectives: Can social media companies safeguard the 2024 election against misinformation? Katie Harbath, former Facebook public policy director, says this is one of the biggest open questions ([link removed]) .

THE RACE TO FILL 2 EMPTY GOP SEATS

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Watch the segment in the player above.

By Mekhi Hill
Jim Lehrer Fellow
House Republicans have been navigating a new year while missing a few key members, adding stress to an already narrow majority in the chamber.

There have been critical votes where those numbers have mattered, when Speaker Mike Johnson has had a very thin margin to pass legislation. House Republicans’ first effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas ([link removed]) for his handling of immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border fell short by a single vote. Three Republicans sided with Democrats, who said there was no merit to what they saw as a partisan response to Biden’s immigration policies. A subsequent vote to approve military aid to Israel also failed, with more Republicans joining Democrats in rejecting the measure.

It’s a situation Republican leadership has faced more often following the departures of former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., who was expelled in a historic vote ([link removed]) , and Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., who was ousted as House speaker and stepped down at the end of 2023 ([link removed]) .

Voters in the districts they’ve left behind will now get a chance to pick new representation. Here’s what to know about upcoming contests for the two open congressional seats.

Santos’ former seat

Santos — one of very few members ever expelled from Congress ([link removed]) — was removed while facing allegations including wire fraud, money laundering, theft of public funds and making materially false statements to the House of Representatives.

He had represented New York’s 3rd Congressional District, which includes portions of Queens in New York City and Nassau County in Long Island.

When is the special election? Early voting started Feb. 3, and Election Day is today — Tuesday, Feb. 13.

When is the race for Santos’ seat important? The race for Santos’ seat is expected to be competitive. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter ([link removed]) has designated the upcoming election as a “toss-up” that could affect the split in Congress.

As a special election, it will only determine who fills the district seat through the end of the year, but winning would give a candidate the advantage of being the incumbent heading into the 2024 general election.

This seat was one of four New York districts that flipped from Democrat to Republican in 2022 — contests that were crucial to the GOP’s majority in the House. Santos won by an 8-point margin in 2022.

McCarthy’s former seat

McCarthy announced his resignation at the beginning of December in a Wall Street Journal op-ed ([link removed]) , two months after he became the first House speaker to be removed by his colleagues.

He had represented California’s 20th Congressional District, which includes the counties of Kern, Tulare, and Fresno in the state’s Central Valley.

When is the special election? A special election primary is scheduled for March 19, and if no candidate wins a majority, a runoff election will take place May 21.

Why is the race for McCarthy’s seat important? McCarthy served a reliably red district — the “safest Republican district” in the state, according to both elections analyst David Wasserman of Cook Political Report and Republican political strategist Rob Stutzman. That makes it unlikely that Democrats will be able to flip the seat; McCarthy had 67.2. percent of the vote when the Associated Press called the race ([link removed]) in 2022. This district also voted for former President Donald Trump by 25 points in the 2020 election.

“There is a real possibility here that you can be looking at a Republican versus Republican runoff next November,” Stutzman said.
More on the 2024 race from our coverage:
* Live Updates: Voters in New York’s 3rd Congressional District will decide tonight who will complete the remaining 11 months of George Santos’ unfinished term. Get the live results here ([link removed]) .
* Mark Your Calendars: This month, upcoming contests include the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24, with the Michigan primary three days later. View our 2024 election calendar here ([link removed]) .
* Watch: The potential impact of Trump’s extreme deportation and immigration agenda ([link removed]) .

WHERE VOTERS STAND ON IMMIGRATION
By Laura Santhanam, @LauraSanthanam ([link removed])
Health Reporter & Coordinating Producer for Polling

For a majority of Americans, the United States’ openness to people from all over the world remains essential to the fabric of the nation.

Yet, just as Congress wages a battle over the border and the future of immigration, support for that bigger idea has been eroding, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll ([link removed]) .
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Photo by Mike Segar/Reuters
Welcoming others makes the country what it is, 57 percent of U.S. adults said in this poll, including 84 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of independents. That’s a significant downward shift in attitudes since July 2021, when 66 percent of U.S. adults supported openness to others.

Meanwhile, 42 percent of Americans overall — including 72 percent of Republicans — said they felt that if the U.S. is too open, it runs the risk of losing its identity.

Many voters do not understand what’s needed to address complicated issues within immigration, said Doris Meissner, senior fellow and director of the non-partisan Migration Policy Institute’s U.S. Immigration Policy Program. Current immigration laws do not match the needs of the U.S. economy, its labor market or an aging society, she added. People who wish to legally establish their lives in the U.S. often must wait for years ([link removed]) , spending thousands of dollars and jumping through countless legal hoops before they are granted green cards or citizenship.

The United States is also not the only country facing a rising demand from people migrating to its borders, Meissner said — and those demands will only increase. With the worsening effects of climate change exacerbating poverty and living conditions within failed states, desperation will drive more people from their homes and communities.

“We are in a new era of migration pressures, but it’s not only on the United States,” Meissner said. “It’s global.”

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Erica R. Hendry, @ericarhendry ([link removed])
Managing Editor, Digital

House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he will not bring the Senate's newly approved foreign aid bill to the floor.

But senators have one card in their back pockets: a discharge petition, a rare maneuver that bypasses normal procedures to force a piece of legislation to the floor. It requires the support of a majority of the House, or 218 voting members. Successful discharge petitions are rare.

Our question: When was the last time a discharge petition was used, and on what bill?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Who was the first U.S. president to visit a border city while in office?

The answer: William Howard Taft ([link removed]) . He visited the U.S.-Mexico border as part of his efforts to improve relationships with Latin American countries. The summit, which took place in El Paso and neighboring Ciudad Juárez, also marked the first meeting between a U.S. president and a Mexican president.

Congratulations to our winners: Doug Easterling and Brenda Radford!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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