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Voters in New York’s 3rd Congressional District headed to the polls today in a special election to replace disgraced GOP congressman George Santos after he was expelled from the House late last year. CNN Anchor and Chief Congressional Correspondent Manu Raju, who interviewed Santos prior to that consequential House vote, shares some insights from his recent reporting on the race between Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip.

Before he was expelled from the House, you interviewed George Santos and pressed him about the many allegations against him. What struck you as notable about that experience?

What was interesting to me was how George Santos changed from the moment he entered Congress to the time he was expelled. When he was first sworn in, and in the weeks that immediately followed, Santos refused to answer questions about his litany of lies. I would press him time and again about all his fabrications – and he either ignored the camera (sometimes on live television) – or he would grow hostile.

That changed towards the end of his tenure. He started to engage more with the press and began to answer many questions from Hill reporters. Ultimately, I sat down with him just days before his expulsion and pressed him on his many lies and the allegations in his criminal indictment – and he admitted to making many mistakes.

What impact did Santos’ removal from office have on voters in his district?

Voters were definitely tired of Santos. Had he run for reelection, he would have had a very difficult time winning both the primary and the general election – especially since the Nassau County Republican Party, which is extremely well organized, was prepared to use its power to defeat him. But I just spent time in the district – which is on Long Island and parts of Queens – and it was pretty clear: George Santos was not a dominating issue for voters. In fact, the biggest issue was immigration and the migrant crisis that is impacting that district and is now dominating the airwaves in the form of attack ads.

Where do the candidates stand in this special election?

Tom Suozzi, the Democratic candidate and former congressman, told me this race is a "true toss-up." And there's no doubt that it is. 

When I went up there about a week and a half ago, the momentum was clearly with the Republican candidate, Mazi Pilip. Suozzi had been on the defensive over immigration and he, himself, conceded that the Democratic brand and President Joe Biden were hurting him in this district. That was a remarkable thing to hear given that Biden had carried the district by eight points in 2020. But it is the current political reality there.

Pilip is a very green candidate. As a county legislator who just came into elective office in 2021, she doesn't have a record on key issues. I spent time with her on the campaign trail and interviewed her about her views. What I found was that she was in line with most House Republicans. She backed impeaching Alejandro Mayorkas, supports the Dobbs decision and doesn't support an assault weapons ban. 

And in my interview, she vigorously defended Donald Trump over his 91 criminal charges.  After she refused to say to me and others whom she voted for in 2020 and 2016, she now tells reporters she voted for Trump in 2020. That tells you she has calculated that embracing Trump is important as they try to bring the base out to the polls in a low-turnout special election.

Pilip's selling point is her life story – as an Ethiopian-born, Israeli immigrant and a fresh face to national politics. But her lack of record also has given Suozzi an opening to accuse her of hiding her views – something he hopes will resonate after the whole Santos debacle.

What might the outcome of this special election say about the 2024 presidential race, if anything?

I always caution about reading too much into special elections. But this one is important because a Democratic victory would be a major step in their drive to take the House in November – in large part because seats held by New York freshmen will be ground zero in the battle for House control. And if Democrats lose, political professionals will pointedly blame the Democratic messaging over immigration as well as Biden's toxicity – and suggest something needs to change before November. (Perhaps that's one reason why Democrats have outspent the GOP by millions on TV – to avoid a bad narrative heading into the fall.)

But beware of snow! The massive snowstorm could greatly affect turnout – and which candidate that hurts more is something we will have to assess after the polls close.

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