New York by the Numbers

Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

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No. 86 - February 13, 2024

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

The good news this month: the U.S. economy has continued to outperform expectations. And consumer confidence, which had weakened noticeably last fall, has rebounded strongly—nationally and in New York, where it reached a five-year high. This likely reflects moderating inflation and stronger-than-expected economic growth.

The bad news: housing affordability is at its worst in decades. Last week, New York City’s 2023 Housing & Vacancy Survey for 2023 was released. The rental vacancy rate fell to a multi-decade low of 1.4%, down dramatically from 4.5% in 2021. The vacancy rate of apartments that rent below $1,650 – approximately affordable to the average New Yorker – was less than 1%.

This month’s Spotlight therefore continues our focus on housing, looking specifically at NYC’s housing supply challenge. Housing creation has lagged badly behind job creation since the Great Recession. While this is not unique to New York City, its impacts are felt profoundly here.

The intensifying affordability crisis calls for bold action at federal, state, and local levels.

In Washington, Senator Schumer is leading a bi-partisan effort to significantly expand the Low Income Housing Tax Credit to support the construction of up to 200,000 new affordable homes, but it is unclear whether it will pass, given the GOP-led House of Representatives.

In Albany, the pressure is on to reach a housing deal that eluded the Governor and the Legislature last year – to increase housing supply, strengthen tenant protections with good-cause eviction legislation, and expand housing vouchers. My office has proposed a new framework for the taxation of multifamily housing development (to replace 421-a) to increase housing supply across income levels, better matching costs and benefits, protect public finances, and insure that affordable units are genuinely affordable.

Here in NYC, last week my office released Building Blocks of Change, outlining management reforms to enable the NYC Department of Housing Preservation and Development to expand its capacity to build and preserve housing for low- and moderate-income New Yorkers.

We also released an audit finding significant failure of management and coordination in the “Intensive Mobile Treatment” program, which is designed to help people with histories of homelessness, severe mental illness, and criminal justice system involvement. One of the big gaps we identified was a lack of targeted housing vouchers designed to help these individuals get off the street and stay on their medication and treatment – so they don’t become a risk to themselves or others.

The bottom line: New York City (as well as the broader metropolitan region, the state, and the country) needs to produce and preserve much more housing—especially more affordable housing—than we have in recent years, to maintain a thriving and growing economy.

That’s no surprise, if you’re watching the numbers (or, really, even if you’re not),


Brad Lander

Table of Contents

View the Full February Economic Newsletter

Spotlight:

NYC's Housing Supply Challenge

This month’s Spotlight zeroes in on New York City’s housing supply, following up on last month’s overview of the residential rental market. High and rising rents, as well as home prices, are indications that New York City continues be a highly desired place to live and work—in other words, driven by strong demand. But they are also an indication that supply has not kept up and that the city is in desperate need of more housing.

In this Spotlight, we gauge trends in the housing supply, compare our situation with that in other major cities, and provide a number of metrics to help guide us on how much housing may be needed, both overall and to house people with low to moderate incomes.

View the Spotlight
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