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THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE LANDSCAPE  
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Michael Podhorzer
February 8, 2024
Weekend Reading
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_ To reach 270, Biden needs to win either Pennsylvania, or Georgia +
Michigan. _

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One of the many reasons I urge people to stop caring about horse race
polls
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that we already know all we need to know ahead of Election Day: The
outcome will be determined, as it was in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022,
by narrow margins in six battleground states – the three northern
states that once constituted the “Blue Wall” (Michigan,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), and three more diverse states (Arizona,
Georgia and Nevada). The margins in these states are usually much too
small for any poll to reasonably predict. And we know that Democrats
have won in those states only when voters were fully aware that the
alternative was MAGA
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In this post, I’ll talk more about those six states and their
Electoral College math (including an interactive tool). As always,
remember that the outcome in those states will depend not on the
margin of error in polls, but on the _MARGIN OF EFFORT_ by
campaigns, activists, media, and concerned citizens to mobilize
America’s anti-MAGA majority
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At this point, we can be pretty confident that the states in play are
Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6),
Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). With those states undecided,
the electoral vote tally is Trump 235, Biden 226.1
[[link removed]] As
a reminder, Biden prevailed in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin by less
than one point, Pennsylvania by a point, and Michigan and Nevada by
about 2 and a half points. 

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ONLY TWO PATHS TO 270: PENNSYLVANIA OR GEORGIA + MICHIGAN

To win the Electoral College, _BIDEN MUST WIN EITHER PENNSYLVANIA, OR
BOTH GEORGIA AND MICHIGAN; THERE IS NO REALISTIC PATH TO 270 WITHOUT
AT LEAST ONE OF THESE COMBINATIONS. _(This is a change from 2020,
when Michigan had one more Electoral College vote and Biden actually
had three paths.) Also, remember that a 269-269 tie would throw the
determination of the winner to the House of Representatives, where
each state’s delegation gets one vote. And if a presidential
election outcome is close enough nationally that it results in a
269-269 tie, it is hard to imagine that election resulting in
Democrats controlling a majority of state Congressional delegations.
(Currently, Republicans hold a majority of representatives in 27
states, compared to Democrats who hold just 22; Minnesota is evenly
split. Other than deep-red at-large states, all of the GOP-held state
delegations would require flipping at least two seats.2
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Thus, there are only two paths to 270. 

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PENNSYLVANIA (245)

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THE BLUE WALL HOLDS (270).

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LOSES WISCONSIN (260). Biden would have to win Georgia (276) or
Arizona (271). 

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LOSES MICHIGAN (255). This is the least likely along this path, as
through the Trump era Democrats have done best in this Blue Wall
state. Biden would have to win Georgia (271) or Arizona and Nevada
(272).

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GEORGIA AND MICHIGAN (257) Biden has to win two of Arizona,
Wisconsin, and Nevada.

INTERACTIVE TOOL: TRY IT YOURSELF

While 270 to Win [[link removed]] is a wonderful site,
and I definitely recommend scrolling through its historical maps
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important perspective on the nation’s persisting sectional
alignment, I created an interactive (see below) to make it easier for
you to roll through the combinations of battleground states to create
your own scenarios. 

Simply make a copy of this spreadsheet
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and enter “0” or “1” in each cell if you think Trump or Biden
will win the state.

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OUTSIDE THE SIX BATTLEGROUNDS

A scenario in which Biden wins the Electoral College by flipping a
state outside of the six in the section above is extremely unlikely,
given that it would mean flipping a state that Democratic presidential
nominees have not won since 1976 (Texas), 2008 (North Carolina), or
2012 (Florida), while losing at least three of the states that Biden
won in 2020 and Democrats carried in the midterms.3
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While North Carolina, which Biden lost by 1.3 points in 2020, may
theoretically be flippable and within the margin of effort, it also
has a very gerrymandered House delegation and no 2024 Senate race,
making it a much lower priority for achieving a Democratic trifecta of
House, Senate, and White House control than the six battleground
states discussed here.

Since Trump fell short by 7.3 points in Minnesota and 7.4 points in
New Hampshire, it’s even more unlikely that he would win by picking
up either of those states if he falls short in the six battleground
states. That said, here’s a piece of New Hampshire trivia. We
can’t not think about Florida when we think about Bush’s
(s)election in 2000. But had Gore picked up just 7,212 more votes in
New Hampshire, the outcome in Florida would not have mattered.
Moreover, 2000 was the only one of the nine presidential elections
since 1988 in which New Hampshire voted for the Republican nominee.
So, if you’re superstitious, aim for 274 in the interactive.

THE POST-ELECTION PRISONER’S DILEMMA

All of that said, I want to draw attention to the added importance of
Biden winning the Electoral College with at least one state to spare.
When Brad Raffensperger and other Republican election administrators
refused to go along with Trump’s efforts to get them to flip the
results in their states in their favor, they were credulously hailed
as courageous democracy defenders. The actual story was a bit more
complex. In 2020, once Biden was seen to have won Georgia and Arizona,
every Republican election administrator faced the
classic _PRISONER’S DILEMMA_: if they “went rogue” and went
along with Trump’s demands to alter the real results, but
administrators in two of the other five states did not, Biden would
still become president and they would face very serious legal
liability. If this dynamic changes in 2024, and Republican election
administrators in battleground states see a path forward for Trump by
cooperating, we can’t presume that they will act with the
“courage” Raffensperger did in 2020.  That should help us make
more sense of those Republican officials like Rusty Bowers who did the
right thing in that situation, but who still say they will vote for
Trump again.  

The importance of winning with at least one state to spare brings the
unprecedented importance of Nevada into focus. If you follow through
the Electoral College math above, Nevada might seem
inconsequential; you’ll see that there are very few scenarios in
which losing Nevada would cost Biden the Electoral College majority.
But winning Nevada, which is the only one of the six states that
Democrats have won in all of the last three presidential elections, is
the easiest way to ensure that Biden has an extra state. 

POST ELECTION MISCHIEF

There have been several important developments since 2020 to reduce
opportunities for post-election mischief and ambiguity. This includes
the passage of the Electoral Count Reform Act; the Supreme Court’s
ruling in _Moore vs Harper
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the fabulist “Independent State Legislature” theory; and
Democratic victories in critical states. Where, in 2020, there were
Republican trifectas in Georgia and Arizona, now they have just
Georgia. Where Republicans controlled both chambers of the state
legislature in five of the battleground states, they now control both
chambers in only two (Arizona and Georgia). And with victories in
state supreme courts in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2023, the
opportunities for rogue judicial rulings are reduced as well.  

JANUARY 6TH, 2025

In the event that Biden wins, if Democrats have majorities in both
chambers that will greatly reduce the possibility of Republican
disruption when Congress meets to count the Electoral Votes. The most
likely scenario if Biden wins is that Democrats will control the
House, but that Republicans will control the Senate – if they can
defeat either Brown or Tester. (I’ll be doing a deeper dive on those
races in the coming weeks.)

_THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES _

I think it’s fair to say that if Biden has won the popular vote by
enough to secure a majority of the Electoral Votes, Democrats will
have also flipped the House. In 2020, Biden carried 226 congressional
districts. Taking into account the remapping done since the midterms,
Biden won 224 of 2024 districts. Today, assigning all but the Cook
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districts to the party they at least lean toward, Democrats are down
202 to 210. But of the 23 toss-up races, all but two are in states
Biden carried4
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and all but 4 are in districts Biden carried.5
[[link removed]] Of
those four Biden lost, three elected Democrats to represent them in
2022.

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_THE SENATE_

Although a new Congress will have been sworn in on January 3, Kamala
Harris will remain the presiding officer, meaning that if there is a
tie vote, hers will decide the outcome; in other words, Democrats
would still be in the majority with 50 seats. While a great deal of
attention is understandably being paid to the need for Sherrod Brown
and Jon Tester to win their reelections in Red states for Democrats to
retain 50 votes in the Senate, it’s important to remember that there
are five other competitive Senate races, all in the six battleground
states. Of those races, Baldwin in Wisconsin and Casey in Pennsylvania
are best-positioned for a Democratic win. Michigan is an open seat,
Arizona is complicated by Sinema running as an Independent, and Rosen
has a more challenging re-election than is generally recognized given
(1) that Democratic margins in Nevada have been narrowing, and (2)
Nevada has had the greatest voter turnover since she was elected in
2018.  

1
[[link removed]] The
split congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine are likely to
break for Biden and Trump, respectively.

2
[[link removed]] North
Carolina is also currently tied, but likely to be Republican with the
new lines. Meanwhile, Democrats hold only a single-seat majority in
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, and have a threatened at-large
delegation in Alaska. 

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other words, Biden would lose all three Blue Wall states, but win
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

4
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Carolina and Ohio are the only states Biden lost that have toss-up
districts.

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[[link removed]] Toss-up
districts Biden lost in 2020 are CA-41, ME-02, PA-08, and WA-03.

_Michael Podhorzer @MICHAELPODHORZER_

_Former political director of the AFL-CIO. Senior fellow at the Center
for American Progress. Founder: Analyst Institute, Research
Collaborative (RC), Co-founder: Working America, Catalist. He
publishes Weekend Reading. (weekendreading.net
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* elections
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* electoral college
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* U.S. Senate
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* House of Representatives
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* Joe Biden
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* Donald Trump
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