Jack, this weekend, the New York Times published a major analysis of "two very different theories of where Democrats stand heading into 2024." The data unpinning one of those two theories comes from Daily Kos.

The idea that special elections are a reliable guide to upcoming general elections was something that Daily Kos first wrote about way back in 2018 and revisited last year. The crux of it is this: Our analysis shows there is good reason to think special elections are predictive of upcoming general elections.

We're proud that America's "newspaper of record" has sat up and taken notice of our work, but that's not the whole reason why I'm writing.

Daily Kos is a small, independent news outlet, but our Elections team is the greatest collection of data nerds on the internet. Their work, like everything else Daily Kos does, is powered by you. We don't have a billionaire backer or big corporate sponsors. Our biggest source of income is small donations of a few bucks at a time from readers who like our work and want to see more of it.

That's why I'm asking you to start a $5 monthly recurring donation to Daily Kos. Starting a recurring donation is the single most powerful thing you do to support our work. It lets us see exactly what we can expect to bring in months in advance, which helps us make better budgeting decisions and ensure that no dollar goes to waste. So please click here to start one now.

If you can't donate monthly, or if you already have a recurring donation set up, and would like to support our work with a one-time donation, then please click here to donate now.

Thank you,
David Nir, Political Director
Daily Kos

If you wish to donate by mail instead, please send a check to Daily Kos, PO Box 70036, Oakland, CA, 94612. Contributions to Daily Kos are not tax deductible.