Daily News Brief

February 5, 2024

Top of the Agenda

U.S. forces conducted ( NYT) dozens of air strikes on targets in Iraq and Syria on Friday in what National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan described as “the beginning of our response” to the killing of U.S. troops in Jordan last month. On Saturday, U.S. and United Kingdom (UK) forces launched strikes against dozens of Houthi targets in Yemen in reaction to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. Yesterday, U.S. Central Command said it struck a Houthi cruise missile that was preparing to launch. Sullivan told CNN that Iran-backed militia attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria are “distinct but related” to those on shipping in the Red Sea. While top U.S. officials “are not looking to take the United States to war,” he said, they aim to respond to the attacks “with force and clarity.”

The U.S. barrage of retaliatory strikes come as officials continue to negotiate a potential hostage deal between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled ( WSJ) to the region yesterday to participate in talks. Iraq’s government said Friday that U.S. attacks killed at least sixteen people in Iraq.

Analysis

“Iran’s core logic was that it could inflict pain on its adversaries mostly through proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen while denying any direct involvement and therefore minimizing retaliatory attacks on its own territory,” CFR expert Ray Takeyh writes in this In Brief. “Today, the deaths of three Americans are pressing the Joe Biden administration toward a more determined response, including targeting Iran itself.”

“[U.S.] enemies have options, space and time and can decide when to turn up the heat—they also have largely supportive constituencies outraged by the Gaza war,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Emile Hokayem tells the Financial Times. “The only way the U.S. can end this cycle is to quickly move to a diplomatic track to end Israel’s war in Gaza.”

Pacific Rim

A Beijing court issued ( Nikkei) a suspended death sentence to detained Australian writer and pro-democracy activist Yang Hengjun, who was tried for espionage behind closed doors in 2021. Australia’s foreign minister said today she was “appalled” by the case and had called in China’s envoy to discuss the matter.

Saudi Arabia/South Korea: The two countries signed a memorandum of understanding yesterday to boost military cooperation and will establish (Reuters) a working group for weapons systems research and development, South Korea’s defense acquisition program said. 

South and Central Asia

The transition will be complete (Reuters) by May, the Maldives foreign ministry said over the weekend, and includes the withdrawal of roughly eighty Indian soldiers. Bilateral ties have been strained since Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu was elected last year on a campaign criticizing India’s military presence in the country.

Kazakhstan: The country’s government resigned (RFE/RL) today and the president appointed Roman Sklyar as acting prime minister, the presidency said. It did not announce a reason for the reshuffle. 

Middle East and North Africa

Egypt’s Suez Canal recorded (Bloomberg) $428 million in revenue in January 2024, compared to $804 million in January 2023, a top canal official said. The revenue plunge is in large part due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea commercial shipping, and comes as Egypt is wrestling with a severe economic crisis.

This In Brief by CFR’s Noah Berman looks at the global economic toll of the Red Sea shipping attacks.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Protests broke out (AFP, France 24) in Senegal after President Macky Sall announced on Saturday that he was postponing a presidential election scheduled for February 25 in the hours before campaigning was set to begin. Representatives from the United States, France, and the European Union (EU) called for the vote to be rescheduled as soon as possible. 

Zambia: Mining startup KoBold Metals said it discovered ( FT) Zambia’s largest copper deposit in a century. Global copper demand is expected to rise as the energy transition advances since copper is used in electricity transmission lines and electric vehicles.

Europe

Michelle O’Neill’s swearing in marked ( The Guardian) the first time a politician from the nationalist party has held the First Minister position. Under a longtime power-sharing deal, a unionist politician is O’Neill’s deputy. O’Neill pledged to focus on reconciliation and economic matters during her inaugural address as the Northern Irish government resumed functioning after two years of deadlock.  

This Backgrounder by Charles Landow and CFR’s James McBride discusses the future of peace in Northern Ireland.

Poland: Prime Minister Donald Tusk plans to remove the senior judges appointed by the previous right-wing Law and Justice administration, Tusk’s justice minister told the Financial Times. EU critiques of backsliding on good governance in Poland have strained ties between Brussels and Warsaw in recent years.

Americas

President Nayib Bukele declared himself (Reuters) the winner of yesterday’s election before any official results were released. His New Ideas party is expected to win nearly all of the legislative assembly seats. Provisional results later showed Bukele winning 83 percent of the vote. 

Chile: Wildfires on the Pacific coast have killed ( NYT) at least 112 people and left hundreds missing, authorities said. President Gabriel Boric Font called the fires the worst disaster in Chile since a 2010 earthquake killed more than 400 people and displaced 1.5 million.

United States

The $118 billion bill includes (NPR) some $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine, $14 billion in aid for Israel, and would require the president to cap entries at the southern border if the number of migrants reaches a certain threshold, among other provisions. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) pledged to bring the bill to a vote this week, but House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) cast doubt on its ability to move past the Senate.

This timeline looks at postwar immigration policy in the United States. 

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