Dear John,
There is a lot happening in Washington this week regarding the situation in the Middle East and I wanted to share a quick update.
Following the drone attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, which killed three soldiers and left dozens more wounded, and calls from GOP Senators for the U.S. to bomb Iran, the Biden administration is signaling it will engage in a "campaign" of retaliatory strikes that may occur over several weeks . These would include Iranian targets and personnel in Iraq and Syria - likely Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps figures and facilities.
There are thankfully no indications Biden will take the reckless advice of Lindsey Graham [[link removed]] and others by launching a major escalatory strike inside Iran , and the White House has firmly stated they do not seek war with Iran. But make no mistake: the strikes that are being previewed will up the ante and may trigger counter-reprisals from Iran and others that would make a full-blown regional war between the U.S. and Iran even more likely.
However, there may be more to this threat than meets the eye. The delay on strikes may give key figures time to vacate Iraq and Syria. Additionally, one of the Iraqi militias deemed responsible for the strikes - Kataib Hezbollah - has seemingly bowed to pressure from Iran and indicated it is suspending any attacks on U.S. forces. This may indicate that there have been backchannel messages between the U.S. and Iran to reduce the risks of miscalculation.
Both the U.S. and Iran are saying they don’t want a wider war - but Biden’s next move will determine whether they avoid it or are sucked into the growing vortex of violence enveloping the region. We are pressing lawmakers and the Biden administration not to escalate towards regional war with Iran and instead to prioritize a permanent ceasefire as the only effective way to begin to resolve this crisis.
Read NIAC's Memo on the Danger of Military Escalation >> [[link removed]]
The Biden administration does appear to be pressing for another break in Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. With U.S. officials in the thick of negotiations, details have emerged of a proposal that could deliver a ceasefire in stages. The first step would be a six-week break in the fighting, coupled with the release of the remaining hostages from Gaza and an influx of life-saving aid. That break would then allow for negotiations on a longer-term peace. While there are significant complications to seeing this plan through, including fractures in the Netanyahu government regarding any pause in hostilities, the details being reported do represent an important step toward stopping the slaughter of Palestinians, freeing Israeli and other hostages, and reducing the risk of regional war.
On Thursday, February 15, NIAC will host our next policy panel to delve into the war between Israel and Palestine and the risks of regional war with Iran. Speakers will include James Zogby, Founder and President of the Arab American Institute; Daniel Levy, former Israeli peace negotiator and President of the U.S./Middle East Project; Lara Friedman, President of the Foundation for Middle East Peace; Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow with the Stimson Center; and Jamal Abdi, NIAC President.
RSVP to attend NIAC's February 15 Policy Panel >> [[link removed]]
Finally, we still need as many voices as possible pressuring Biden and Congress to do the right thing. Please take a moment to send a message to President Biden and Congress: no to war with Iran and yes to ceasefire here.
Send a message to Biden and your lawmakers >> [[link removed]]
If this work is important to you, please consider making a donation to support our efforts to prevent war. We are a people-powered organization and depend on the grassroots support of people like you.
Donate to support our anti-war efforts >> [[link removed]]
Please let us know if you have any questions, and we will keep you updated on any further developments.
Sincerely,
Ryan Costello
NIAC Policy Director
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