Daily News Brief

February 1, 2024

Top of the Agenda

European Union (EU) leaders agreed today ( FT) to provide more than $54 billion in grants and loans to Ukraine over four years, ending months of negotiations. Hungary, the sole holdout, withdrew its objection to allow the bill to go through, though it was not immediately clear ( NYT) if Budapest got anything in return. European Council President Charles Michel celebrated that the deal “locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding” for Kyiv. The deal comes as an additional U.S. aid package for Ukraine remains stalled in Congress.

While Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had called for the annual right to veto aid to Ukraine, this was rejected in today’s agreement, which instead included a regular review of the funding. The European Commission will issue annual reports on how the money is being used. The European Parliament still needs to approve the funding in a vote that could take place later this month.

Analysis

“A Ukrainian victory requires Europe to invest in its defense industrial capacity, so that it can sustain Ukraine, even if Washington stops. Russia is banking on its ability to outlast Western support for Ukraine, and that bet needs to be proved wrong,” the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Susi Dennison and Pawel Zerka write for Foreign Affairs.

“Orbán’s opponents reject the idea that there is some higher ideological or even foreign policy purpose to his obstructive behavior in Brussels. Everything, they say, is about keeping control in Hungary through politicized public institutions and crony capitalism, a system he has dubbed the System of National Cooperation—one that requires the continued flow of EU funds,” the Financial Times’ Marton Dunai, Henry Foy, and Ben Hall write.

Pacific Rim

Han Kuo-yu is from a party (Nikkei) that seeks improved ties with China. His election may portend tough battles over defense spending. Though the ruling Democratic Progressive Party held on to Taiwan’s presidency in last month’s election, it lost seats in the legislature.

For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR expert David Sacks unpacks China’s response to Taiwan’s recent election. 

Malaysia: The country swore in (Reuters) a new monarch yesterday as part of a system in which sultans rotate every five years. The new Sultan Ibrahim is known for his views on governance and has urged Malaysia to establish a special economic zone with Singapore, despite the monarchy usually staying out of politics.

South and Central Asia

A leading rebel group unveiled (AP) their proposal for a peaceful transition of power ahead of the third anniversary of military rule in the country. After months of conflict between rebels and the military government, the plan would put the country under civilian control. The military did not immediately respond to the announcement.

India: Opposition alliance member and Chief Minister of Jharkhand state Hemant Soren was arrested yesterday on allegations of land fraud, though no formal charges were brought against him, Bloomberg reported. Leaders from his party and India’s opposition alliance called his detention politically motivated. 

Middle East and North Africa

Iranian forces in Syria decided to scale back their deployment after a series of Israeli strikes on their positions, five unnamed sources told Reuters. While Iran says it has no intentions to leave Syria entirely, the decision indicates how the escalating war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas is affecting the broader region. 

This Backgrounder by CFR’s Kali Robinson looks at Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. 

U.S./Yemen: U.S. forces destroyed (NYT) a missile and ten unmanned drones in Yemen yesterday that Iran-backed Houthi rebels were preparing to launch, U.S. Central Command said. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

The naira’s devaluation brings (FT) the official exchange rate closer to the black market rate and is widely seen as part of President Bola Tinubu’s pro-market reforms. 

U.S./Sudan: The U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions (AP) on three Sudanese firms it said were directly involved in Sudan’s civil war. Two of the companies supply the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces and the third supplies the Sudanese army, the Department said.

Europe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said yesterday that 207 Ukrainian captives were returned (Bloomberg) from Russia, while Russia’s defense ministry said it received 195 soldiers. The United Arab Emirates mediated the swap, which Ukraine said was the fiftieth such exchange since the current war began in 2022.

Americas

Officials from the capital’s water utility say its infrastructure system is the most stressed (Reuters) in its history and have asked residents to conserve water. Mexico City has been experiencing unusually severe dry periods due to climate change, scientists say. Residents are protesting what has been several weeks of water shortages.

El Salvador: The country will continue (Reuters) accepting bitcoin as legal tender after its presidential election this weekend, Vice President Félix Ulloa said yesterday. Ulloa and President Nayib Bukele are strongly favored for reelection. The International Monetary Fund has asked El Salvador to reconsider the monetary measure amid negotiations for a billion-dollar loan.

This Backgrounder by Anshu Siripurapu and CFR’s Noah Berman explains bitcoin, digital dollars, and the future of money.

United States

The White House appointed ( WaPo) senior energy advisor and longtime Democratic strategist John Podesta to be President Joe Biden’s top climate envoy yesterday after John Kerry steps down from the position later this spring. Podesta has been overseeing the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s 2022 climate law.

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