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January 31, 2024

This month’s newsletter features a roundtable report on applying the
lessons from North Korea to address Iran's nuclear program. The report
summarizes the conclusions of an expert panel discussion convened by the
Wisconsin Project and offers ideas for diplomacy, threats, sanctions, and
other tools that may be used to stop or limit a nuclear weapons program.

The newsletter also includes profiles of two Hong Kong-based entities added
to the U.S. Commerce Department's Entity List for attempting to procure
U.S.-origin items for Iran, as well as news about recent Iranian satellite
launches, a lethal drone attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, and a Dutch
newspaper's investigation into the identity of a key agent involved in the
2010 Stuxnet cyberattack against Iran’s uranium enrichment program.
Additions to the Iran Watch library include official statements about
Iranian drone and missile strikes in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria;
international responses to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea; and
the disruption of an Iranian intelligence network plotting to carry out
assassinations abroad.

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PUBLICATIONS

[4]Roundtable report cover

(Image credit: Wisconsin Project)

Roundtable | [5]The Next North Korea? Lessons for Addressing Iran's Nuclear
Program

The advanced state of Iran's nuclear program has raised concerns that the
country could become "the next North Korea." In October 2023, the Wisconsin
Project convened an expert panel for a private roundtable discussion to
explore what lessons the North Korean case holds that may assist the United
States in its use of diplomacy, sanctions, and other tools to prevent Iran
from building nuclear weapons or to contain it if it does.

On the diplomatic front, the panel found that Iran may be generally more
amenable than North Korea was to an agreement that leaves it without
nuclear weapons, given Tehran's longstanding hedging strategy. In addition,
the objectives of nuclear diplomacy—whether to strike a transformational or
transactional agreement—should be aligned with the available leverage. The
panel also emphasized the importance of a credible military threat to deter
a country from crossing the nuclear threshold and the value in reaching
agreements that place limits on a country's ability to improve the quality
or quantity of those weapons once it crosses that threshold.

[6]READ THE ROUNDTABLE

ENTITIES OF CONCERN

Hong Kong-based companies are frequently used by Iran to procure
U.S.-origin items with military applications, according to the U.S.
Commerce Department. Two such entities were recently added to Commerce’s
Entity List for attempting to supply Iran's unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)
program.

[7]Sunrising Logistics (HK) Ltd.

A Hong Kong-based company; aliases include Sunrising Electronics China
Limited and Sunrising International.

[8]LEARN MORE

[9]Speed Business Trading (HK) Ltd.

A Hong Kong-based company; attempted to procure U.S.-origin items in
support of Iran's weapons of mass destruction and UAV programs.

[10]LEARN MORE

IN THE NEWS

[11]Mahda satellite

The Mahda satellite, one of three launched atop a Simorgh rocket on January
28. (Credit: Islamic Republic News Agency)

[12]Iran Launches Three Satellites Amid Rising Tensions with Western Powers
| Al Jazeera

January 28, 2024: Iran simultaneously launched three satellites, the Mahda,
the Kayhan-2, and the Hatef-1, into orbit. It was the first successful
launch of the Simorgh rocket after multiple previous failures. Earlier in
the month, Iran launched the Soraya satellite atop a rocket built by the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

[13]Three U.S. Troops Killed in Jordan Drone Strike Linked to Iran |
Reuters

January 29, 2024: The Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a coalition of
Iran-backed militias, carried out a drone attack on a base in Jordan that
killed three U.S. service members and wounded at least 34. Iran denied
involvement in the attack.

[14]Dutch National Sabotaged Nuclear Facility in Iran | Anadolu Agency

January 9, 2024: The Dutch newspaper Volkskrant reported that it had
identified the individual responsible for planting the Stuxnet computer
virus at the Natanz nuclear complex. According to the report, Erik Van
Sabben, a Dutch national, was recruited by Dutch intelligence services in
2005 and installed equipment containing the malware at Natanz in 2007. He
was working as an engineer in Dubai at the time of the sabotage. The Dutch
government was reportedly unaware of Van Sabben's actions at the time.

FROM THE LIBRARY

Iran [15]fired ballistic missiles at targets in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan,
the last of which prompted a reciprocal strike from Islamabad on Iranian
territory.
* A spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said [16]the strikes
in Syria and Iraq were acts of punishment against those who had violated
Iran's security – January 16.
* The Foreign Ministry [17]characterized the strike on Pakistan as a
"preventive action" – January 18.
* In response, Pakistan launched "[18]Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar,"
targeting what it said were Pakistani terrorists inside Iran – January 18.

The Houthis continued their attacks against commercial ships and naval
vessels in the Red Sea, even after U.S. and allied forces carried out
strikes aimed at degrading their capabilities.
* At the beginning of the month, 44 countries issued [19]a joint
statement calling for an end to Houthi attacks against commercial vessels
off the coast of Yemen – January 3.
* The U.N. Security Council passed [20]resolution 2722 similarly
demanding an end to the Houthi attacks – January 10.
* The next day, the United States, United Kingdom, and other partner
countries began [21]a series of military strikes in Yemen "intended to
disrupt and degrade the Houthis' capabilities" – January 11.
* U.S. Central Command also [22]announced the seizure of a dhow
attempting to transport advanced Iranian weapon components to Yemen –
January 16.

The United Kingdom and United States announced the disruption of multiple
assassination plots on their soil directed by Iranian intelligence
officials.
* The U.S. Justice Department [23]indicted narcotics trafficker Naji
Sharifi Zindashti and two Canadian co-conspirators who were plotting the
murder of Iranian dissidents living in Maryland – January 29.
* The Treasury Department [24]sanctioned a broader network led by
Zindashti, who it said "operates at the behest of Iran’s Ministry of
Intelligence and Security" – January 29.
* The United Kingdom [25]sanctioned members of the IRGC Unit 840, which
was linked to plots to assassinate two Iran International television
presenters on U.K. soil – January 29.

Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting
strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.

Copyright © 2024 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control

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