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read about undoing authoritarianism in Poland!

The Polish opposition managed to oust the ruling Law and Justice party last October, even as the party used state power to try to keep itself in charge. But now, as David Ost points out for The Nation [[link removed]], “actually being able to govern is the real challenge.”

Right-wing populist parties around the world “try to undo the principle of a neutral state, staff key institutions with only their own people, and sow the political landscape with mines that make it impossible for an opposition to take power even when it does win elections,” Ost writes, drawing a parallel to Donald Trump’s plans to “purge state institutions” should he come back to power after the 2024 presidential elections.

In Poland, that manifested in a few ways. The state-owned media had been used by Law and Justice to “lie about the opposition (branding them foreign agents) and spread any number of global right-wing racist conspiracy theories from the Great Replacement to the world-wide persecution of Catholics or the totalitarian threat coming from ‘gender ideology.’” Public media governance had been transferred to a “National Media Council,” wherein Law and Justice had a majority. State legal policy is still controlled by Law and Justice, as a loyal official had previously been appointed to the position of “national prosecutor,” a long-term position.

Donald Tusk, Poland’s new prime minister, has been working to reverse the past party’s grip on power, and Ost allows that “It has been astonishing to watch the boldness, determination, and agility of the new Polish coalition.” But the entire legal world, he writes, has been “the target of the most meddling” by Law and Justice. So far, the current coalition has held together — and to build a new, fairer framework in its place.

The Great Beyond, Here

Alastair Humphreys, British author and adventurer, like Dorothy before him, details [[link removed]] the way in which there’s no place like home to explore. “What if this bog-standard corner of England was actually full of surprises if only I bothered to go out and look?”

For many years, this was not the question with which he consumed himself with, preferring instead to try to find what he could away from home. “For more than 20 years, my favorite thing has been to leave here behind, with all its ties and routines. To hit the road and make my way to there. I get twitchy being in one place for too long,” he writes. “Home was for family, friends and real life, not for exploration and adventure.”

But presented with a new patch of home, a family, and a shifting perspective on climate and environmental change, Humphreys decided to explore his own backyard, or at least his neighboring environs. Having ordered a map “divided into 400 individual grid squares, outlined in light blue — a single square kilometer each,” and confident that he could walk “the perimeter of any square in about an hour,” Humphreys’s journeys could begin. He decided to journey into a new square each week. He came to appreciate things like coming across “a framed view of nature, history, conservation and community all rolled in together.” And the chance to venture out into more of his own neighborhood.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] Falling Stars

Fifi Anaman argues [[link removed]] that Ghana’s Black Stars deserved to fail in this year’s Africa Cup of Nations, or Afcon. Anaman describes Ghana’s early exit as “unbelievable, yet strangely expected.”

Fans and even journalists were outraged, and a “spectacular release of pent up emotion” ensued. Ken Badiako, who has been covering the team since the early 1960s, said, “I’ve never seen anything like it.” Ghana needed to beat Mozambique to advance; it managed to lose after a 2-0 lead. Anaman described the manner of the team’s failure as “unprecedented” and said it had reached “the lowest of lows.”

On the other hand, Anaman writes, nobody should have been surprised. After a sixth consecutive Afcon semi-final appearance, the Black Stars have been in steady decline. They had struggled to even qualify for this Afcon, though the tournament was supposed to bring about their redemption after a disappointing World Cup performance. Anaman cites a culture of “reckless spending and poor leadership,” and calling the “spoiled,” a team whose failure made more sense than its success. Anaman also suggests that the fate of the Black Stars speaks to broader issues within the Ghana Football Association, or GFA — issues that may well continue: “In any accountability-driven society, the leadership of the GFA, the Black Stars management body, and the technical team would collectively resign. But, bet your bottom dollar they won’t.”

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] DEEP DIVE Schooling Parties

Mia Costa and Miguel M. Pereira argue in a new pre-print [[link removed]] that research suggests that politicians with professional experience are seen as more credible in their relevant areas of expertise, and thus better positioned to persuade voters. They explore this argument in three Western democracies: Germany, the United States, and Sweden. “Parties that foster occupational diversity,” they write, are therefore “better equipped to build support for their policy agendas.”

Why? “Parties and legislators often pursue unpopular policies,” they write. And doing so comes with electoral risks. But voters can be persuaded if parties add actual occupational experts to their rank and file.

This is also true across areas. Costa and Pereira considered the case of education in Germany, but that of healthcare in the United States, where “7.5% of US respondents

supported a proposal to restrict telehealth services put forward by an average legislator (without reference to their professional background), 33.8% did so when told the proposal came from a legislator who also works as a general physician.”

The authors stress that their research builds on other studies suggesting that “diversity within legislatures influence policy outcomes. For instance, women legislators prioritize different issues than their male counterparts, and redistribute resources according to these priorities.”

This is true with social background, too. But “the same effects can be observed even absent differences in legislators’ preferences or priorities. For example, there is evidence that legislators’ social and individual backgrounds shape their perceptions of the electorate, which can lead them to prioritize different policies even if they are not intentionally trying to represent a particular subconstituency.” And so the authors proposed their “alternative mechanism,” which is their theory of occupational diversity and efficiency.

The authors also had to consider the strength of argument: if too much detail in an argument could turn voters off, or if argument built up through, for example, committee experience could substitute for occupational expertise.

The authors designed a study in which subjects were presented with a vignette and then “responded to three outcome questions designed to measure their perceptions of the legislator’s knowledge, their support for the policy proposal, and their opinion of the legislator’s approach to political compromise.” They did this considering the cases of grade retention in Germany and telehealth in both the United States and Sweden.

They found that their respondents “perceived legislators who have a background in education or healthcare as better informed about the issues of grade retention in Germany and telemedicine in the United States. Voters were also more likely to support broadly unpopular policies if a legislator with relevant professional experience proposed them compared to one without such experience. Hence, occupational cues persuaded voters to support a policy that they would otherwise be more likely to oppose.”

The authors concede three unanswered questions: whether this extends beyond education and healthcare; the extent to which partisanship moderates occupational cues; and the extent to which this is driven by “aversion to career politicians” — as opposed to respect for occupational expertise.rds outlining the positions of all three institutions during the RRF negotiations” as well as “the EP press releases and the plenary debates that focused specifically on the RRF. This approach allowed me to consider essential issues, potential concessions and gains that were identified in the preliminary stage.”

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Maha Hilal wrote [[link removed]] about Israel, the United States, and the war on terror, putting this moment into historical context. Hilal looked specifically at Israeli invocations of 9/11, writing, “The ability to reproduce that narrative endlessly, while transforming 9/11 into a date that transcended time itself, served as a powerful lesson to Israel in how to communicate suffering and an omnipresent existential threat that could be weaponized to legitimize future violent interventions.” Hilal argued that, by using the memory of 9/11 as understood by most Americans, Israel could frame “the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7 similarly as a symbol of ultimate suffering and existential threat.”

Heather Ashby argued [[link removed]] that “the current and potential uses of AI require an approach that considers both existential and near-term risks from the technology.” To act as though we only can or should address one or the other is, per Ashby, a “false dichotomy.” Both the existential and near term risks, after all, have “profound global implications. The world, Ashby believes, needs to develop approaches for dealing with both in tandem, and not try to split limited resources. “How the debate about AI existential and near-risks evolves,” Ashby warned, “will significantly contribute to whether AI furthers global inequality and technological access or helps reduce that divide.”

Daniel Ofman offered a dispatch [[link removed]] on NATO launching military exercises, the largest since the Cold War. “This exercise is about simulating war. It’s meant as preparation in case Russia attacks a NATO ally — something that's being discussed across Europe,” Ofman explained. Ofman also said that Russia has given NATO reason to worry, and that Jānis Sārts, the director of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence in Riga, Latvia, said to look at Russian actions, not words, as their words often present Russia as a victim of western aggression. Per Sārts, “If you look at the real actions of Russia, they basically emptied their forces next to the NATO borders, and if they empty their borders in a time when they’re really fighting a very hard war with Ukraine, that means they know NATO is not going to attack Russia, they are feeling safe about it.”

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] WELL-PLAYED

It’s a small world [[link removed]] after all.

It’s not easy [[link removed]] being seen.

The more things change [[link removed]].

Achtung, baby [[link removed]].

For that special someone [[link removed]].

We’ve been better, Elmo [[link removed]].

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Critical State is written by Emily Tamkin with Inkstick Media.

The World is a weekday public radio show and podcast on global issues, news and insights from PRX and GBH.

With an online magazine and podcast featuring a diversity of expert voices, Inkstick Media is “foreign policy for the rest of us.”

Critical State is made possible in part by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

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