Top Lines: US Economy And Trade Policy | 2020 Election And Political Analysis | Coronavirus Crisis | Impeachment | Protecting Our Elections And Disinformation | Immigration And The Border | Countering Illiberalism's Rise
Notes On 2020 - It is our opinion that in the coming months the COVID crisis will create an entirely new political dynamic in America, one which could develop in a wide variety of ways. So we aren’t going to focus a great deal in the coming weeks on day-to-day polling – we just aren’t sure how meaningful it will be right now. In our last NDN News, we detailed where we thought the national landscape was at the time – Dems with a 7-9 point national advantage, Biden leading nationally and in the battlegrounds, and the Senate slipping from McConnell. Today’s data finds that basic structure holding – no real movement in any direction. But we don’t expect that to last as we get deeper into the crisis.
We will start spending more time in the coming days talking about how the parties and campaigns are adjusting to COVID, and the possibility of no crowds and little traditional voter contact this year. The scale of the re-invention that has to take place is daunting – everything from finding a new way to finish the Democratic Primary process to how one imagines, staffs, and funds a campaign now. For smart and effective communicators, this new more digital age will be an opportunity to connect in new and powerful ways. Political operatives were already grappling with lots of other new challenges – disinformation, cybersecurity, a changing media, and demographic landscape – now comes COVID.
A related area to watch is how Congress itself deals with physical distancing…..are we headed to remote voting? What happens to constituency services? Travel? Will it now be three months on, three months off, with emergency votes taken out of session remotely? How does every state legislature manage this?
Defeating, Living With COVID-19 - America is nine weeks into the COVID crisis and we still lack a comprehensive strategy for how to confront, defeat, and eventually live with the virus. For weeks now, NDN has been advocating for a multi-part approach:
1) Surge equipment/beds/workers to hospitals and take other steps to shore up the health care system
2) Launch a Manhattan Project to hasten the development of a vaccine, therapeutics, diagnostics, and other front line tech needed for COVID but also for future pandemics
3) Develop a single, clear national strategy towards social/physical distancing and school/business closures
4) Start a national conversation with young people in America to help them more aggressively take steps to protect themselves, and to navigate life at home and away from their schools
5) Pass the Klobuchar/Wyden bill that moves the 2020 general election to vote by mail in case the virus is still with us
Our government had two fundamental paths available to it to battle COVID. It could do extreme social/physical distancing or mass testing/surveillance/isolation. Effectively it has chosen neither, which is why recorded positives here in the US over the past few days have increased at a faster rate than in almost any other country at any stage of this crisis (using the data we have). That the President is now flirting with the idea of trying to relax physical distancing without having a mass testing/isolation regime in place (such a regime is weeks/months away) has to be challenged aggressively by every leader and every American. It is reckless and dangerous in the extreme, wishful thinking, and shows that unlike leaders like Jay Inslee, Gavin Newsom, and Andrew Cuomo, who are growing through this crisis, our President is shrinking.
How Congress Should Build An Economic Response To Coronavirus - Over the past few weeks, NDN has written extensively about how Congress, the Administration, and the Fed should act to blunt what will likely be a major economic crisis this year. Our long-time contributor Rob Shapiro wrote a piece in The Washington Post discussing how the magnitude of this economic shock will likely overwhelm the tools available to the Fed, and will require significantly stepped-up fiscal stimulus and public health efforts. As well, Chris Taylor published a new piece arguing that Congress should undertake a massive economic stimulus now, focusing on three key areas: funding for testing/hospital equipment, support for hard-hit businesses and workers, and a massive cash transfer to support the overall economy.
NDN has been pleased with the significant progress in stimulus negotiations made in several key areas by Senate Democrats and Republicans, including expansions in unemployment insurance and SNAP, aid to small businesses and employers, and direct cash transfers to Americans. However, like many others we are very concerned at reports that the GOP's draft bill contains hundreds of billions of dollars in funding for businesses that is at the sole discretion of the Treasury Secretary, without the types of oversight and transparency to ensure the money is fairly apportioned (as was the case with TARP funds in 2009-10).
Best,
Simon, Chris, and the rest of the NDN team
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