In a new commercial for Fireball Whisky, Greg Olsen jokes about Tom Brady taking his job at Fox Sports this fall.

Olsen ticks off things that might force a frustrated football fan to down a shot of the cinnamon whisky. “Potentially losing your job that…you’ve been pretty good at? Fireball,” he says. The spot ends with Olsen comically lamenting, “Man, I thought I was doing a good job.”

Props to Olsen for his self-deprecating humor. But the three-time Pro Bowl tight end losing his lead NFL analyst job to the seven-time Super Bowl winner is no joke.

These eight-figure TV gigs only open up once in a generation. They’re the sports TV equivalent of Supreme Court appointments: Troy Aikman of ESPN and Cris Collinsworth of NBC Sports, for example, have served as No. 1 color commentators for 22 straight seasons. Super Bowl LVIII analyst Tony Romo is wrapping his seventh season at CBS Sports. His predecessor, Phil Simms, held the job for 19 years.

With the NFL dominating entertainment, networks are now partly defined by their football coverage. No. 1 NFL analysts command the mega-salaries that used to flow to network news anchors like Tom Brokaw and Dan Rather.

To add salt to the wound, Olsen has been a revelation in his three seasons on the air. He’s become a fan favorite on social media—with some calling for Fox to keep him in the top job, Brady or no Brady. 

In his first season as lead analyst, Olsen called the NFL’s most-watched Super Bowl and regular-season game of all time, winning the Emmy Award for “Outstanding Personality—Emerging On-Air Talent.” This year, the 38-year-old Olsen again called Fox’s top regular-season and playoff games with play-by-play announcer Kevin Burkhardt, sideline reporters Erin Andrews and Tom Rinaldi, and rules analyst Mike Pereira. On Sunday his crew will call its final game of the season: the NFC Championship between the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions.  

John McClain, a longtime NFL writer for the Houston Chronicle, says Olsen is “exceptional,” despite his relatively short TV resume.

“I think he’s as good as the best, which is incredible considering his experience. Brady better be as good as Aikman to fill Olsen’s shoes,” McClain tells Front Office Sports. “I imagine other networks would line up to get him.”

That’s no surprise. The 14-year NFL veteran started calling games for Fox while still an active player in 2017. Upon retirement, he took over the No. 2 analyst job in 2021. One year later, he and Burkhart were promoted to No. 1 after Aikman and Buck bolted for ESPN’s Monday Night Football.  

Ever since Brady revealed he was taking a “gap year” to prepare for his 10-year, $375 million Fox contract, rumors have been flying. Here are five burning questions about Fox’s tricky Olsen-to-Brady handoff: 

Will Brady Change His Mind About TV?

Probably not. Given the GOAT “unretired” from his first NFL retirement after 40 days, it’s always possible. But it appears that it’s all systems go for the 46-year-old Brady to join Burkhardt in Fox’s lead broadcast booth this fall.

Brady has visited the Fox studios lot in Los Angeles to prepare for his TV transition, sources tell FOS. He was spotted at dinner with Andrews and Fox execs in November. (Fox’s NFL brain trust includes chief executive officer Eric Shanks, president of national networks Mark Silverman, and president of production Brad Zager.) 

As one Fox source tells FOS: “Tom is approaching this like he approached the game. From what I gather, he isn’t just cruising on his name.”

Brady himself addressed his “big broadcasting job” on the Jan. 4 episode of his Let’s Go! podcast with Jim Gray, saying: “I’m already working hard on trying to make sure I’m ready for that opportunity…and I’m prepared mentally and emotionally for that challenge. Because it is a challenge. It’s something new, that’s outside of my comfort zone. I’m excited to go out there, and try something, and see how I do.”

Meanwhile, ESPN’s Joe Buck told the New York Post sports media podcast that Brady has sought out his Fox predecessor Aikman and other pros for advice.

“I know that he’s talked to Troy about it. He’s talked to intermediaries about maybe getting with me and having me help. Which I’m totally open to doing—and would love to do,” said Buck. “There’s new things you have to think about. Like Troy says, knowing football is about fourth on the list. It’s what are you looking at, how are you going to present it, how fast can you do it, can you do it before the next snap? There have been guys who seemed to be computer-made to do analysis of an NFL or college game that haven’t been so great. I would never bet against the man. I hope to God he does it. I think it will be fascinating. I think [Brady] will be great. But you still have to go do it.”

Will Olsen Settle For the No. 2 Job?

Yes. Even Olsen admits Fox had to pursue the greatest NFL winner in history. When he drops down the depth chart to No. 2, he’ll likely be paired with play-by-play announcer Joe Davis instead of his close friend Burkhardt.

Olsen addressed the Brady-sized elephant in the room this month on the SI Media with Jimmy Traina podcast: “Whatever team I’m on next year, whatever my future holds, wherever I am, so be it. Obviously I’m on the record about how much I respect Tom. I understand the situation, he’s the greatest football player of all time. I get it. I understand what we all signed up for. But it is not going to alter one thing we do.”

Still, it’s a comedown for the emerging star. No. 2 game crews get lesser game matchups and earn less money. On the other hand, it could be a smart play. Given his aspirations of NFL ownership, Brady might only work a season or two with Fox before moving into the Las Vegas Raiders owner’s box. In that case, Olsen’s the heir apparent.

“Given the other networks’ No. 1 jobs don’t expire for a couple of years, he’s likely to stay at Fox,” says one TV executive who declined to be named. “Fox and Brady can see how it works out. If it doesn’t, Fox moves Olsen back to No. 1.”

Would He Take a Pay Cut?

Yes, say sources. As No. 2 game analyst, Olsen’s salary will fall to $3 million from $10 million, according to the New York Post, for a whopping 70% decrease.

That stinks. But for now, Olsen’s stuck. He can shift to an NFL studio job, but they pay far less than top game analyst gigs. Still, a $3 million salary is more than is paid to most No. 2 game analysts, for whom the going rate is roughly $1 million per year.

If Brady flops on TV—and supposedly can’t-miss candidates like Jason Witten, Ray Lewis, and Joe Montana have failed previously—then negotiating leverage swing backs to Olsen. He could then ask for, and receive, the top rate among No. 1 analysts, which has been set at $18 million by Romo and Aikman.

“I would say he’s easily on par with Troy [Aikman]. Fox would be foolish not to find a role for him somewhere,” warns media consultant Jim Williams.

How About Olsen Pursuing Other TV Jobs? 

Absolutely, say sources. If another top job opens up, Olsen could pounce.  

Currently, there are no openings. But the 43-year-old Romo could always go play golf professionally. Collinsworth, who celebrated his 65th birthday yesterday, is not getting any younger. And Kirk Herbstreit’s Amazon Thursday Night Football deal is up in a few years.

Here’s where things get risky for Fox. By hiring Brady, they risk losing Olsen. The unnamed TV executive likes Olsen’s ability to explain the game in easy-to-understand language. Here’s his TV scouting report:

“He’s been very, very solid. Doesn’t try to predict every play. Gets into the weeds when he feels it is appropriate. Good at explaining the strategic aspect of certain play calls and how they are used to set up other play calls. Not afraid to criticize poor play or officiating. Enthusiasm level is great.”

Or Becoming An NFL Head Coach?  

Why not? Before he hired Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper put the team’s former star on his short list of head coaching candidates, according to The Athletic. Olsen has no coaching experience but could earn more on the sidelines than he’ll make this season on Fox. (Two vacancies remain: The Seattle Seahawks, where Olsen played his final season, and the Washington Commanders.)

The coaching-to-TV carousel has proved lucrative for Sean Payton, who jumped from the New Orleans Saints to a Fox studio job then back to the NFL with an $18 million-a-year coaching job with the Denver Broncos.

Olsen would also possibly be interested in a general manager position similar to that of San Francisco 49ers GM John Lynch, say sources.

Fox declined to comment for this story, but the network could also ease Brady’s transition to TV by creating a three-person broadcast booth with Olsen, Brady, and Burkhardt, notes sports TV expert Douglas Pucci of Programming Insider.

Don’t forget, after Aikman’s rookie season with the No. 2 crew at Fox, the network put him in a three-man booth with Buck and Collinsworth in 2022. It worked. The former Dallas Cowboys superstar grew comfortable on TV. Now he and Buck rank as the longest NFL announce duo in history (22 years), surpassing the legendary John Madden and Pat Summerall.

“It would ease Tom Brady into the fold. Would they one-up each other? I don’t know. … But Brady and Olsen together would be interesting,” says Pucci.