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ABORTION BAN STATES HAVE SEEN 65K PREGNANCIES FROM RAPE, STUDY
ESTIMATES  
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Adriel Bettelheim
January 24, 2024
Axios
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_ Using data from the CDC, the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the
FBI, researchers estimate that 519,981 rapes occurred in states with
bans since Roe was overturned. They project 64,565 pregnancies
resulted from rape. _

'This body in not a political battlefield' sign at a Stop Abortion
Bans Rally in St Paul, Minnesota is licensed under , by Lorie Shaull
from St Paul, Minnesota (CC BY-SA 2.0)

 

More than 64,500 pregnancies have resulted from rape in the 14 states
that banned abortion
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Roe v. Wade was overturned, with the vast majority occurring in states
that don't make exceptions for rape, researchers estimated today in a
leading medical journal.

THE BIG PICTURE: The projection in _JAMA Internal Medicine_
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to shed light on the frequency of these pregnancies at a time when
exceptions for rape loom large in abortion debates.

* Researchers, led by the medical director at Planned Parenthood of
Montana, say even states with bans that have exceptions for rape
impose other requirements that make it difficult to access the
procedure.
* Rape victims have few options other than self-managed abortions,
including by illegal methods or via pills obtained through the mail,
or traveling out of state
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where abortion is legal. As a result, many have to carry a pregnancy
to term, the researchers wrote.

WHAT THEY FOUND: Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the FBI, researchers
estimated that 519,981 rapes occurred in states with bans from July
2022 — in the immediate aftermath of Roe being overturned —
through Jan. 1, 2024.

* Adjusting for the fraction of female victims ages 15 to 45 and the
cases likely to result in a pregnancy, they projected 64,565
pregnancies resulted from rape during the four to 18 months various
state bans were in effect.
* Nine out of 10 pregnancies were in states with no exceptions for
rape victims, with 45% of those (26,313) in Texas. Missouri was next
highest with 5,825.
* Idaho and Mississippi had the most pregnancies among the five
states with exceptions for rape, with about 1,400 each.

BETWEEN THE LINES: The Supreme Court's decision to strike down
federal protection of abortion threw regulation of the procedure to
the states, some of which had "trigger bans" that immediately took
effect. Others soon took up anti-abortion legislation.

* The researchers said there were 10 or fewer legal abortions a
month in states with bans.
* Even those with exceptions for rape have other restrictions likely
to disqualify victims, such as gestational limits or a requirement
that the victim must report the rape to law enforcement.

OF NOTE: The research contained a lot of statistical assumptions
since sexual assaults are hard to measure accurately in surveys.

* The CDC and Bureau of Justice Statistics data don't include
state-level data, so researchers turned to the FBI's most recent
uniform crime reports, which include rapes reported to law enforcement
in 2019.

* abortion
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* abortion bans
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* Rape
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* Supreme Court
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