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**JANUARY 26, 2024**
On the Prospect website
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Party Opposed to Immigration Changes Opposes Immigration Changes
The inevitable outcome of Republican anti-immigration sentiment
BY DAVID DAYEN
Months After Merging With Activision, Microsoft Lays Off Gaming
Employees
The Communications Workers of America supported the merger after
securing union neutrality commitments. So far, it has led only to a
smaller workforce. BY LUKE GOLDSTEIN
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Corporate Self-Oversight
Four auditing firms examine the books of nearly every big U.S. company,
in a process riddled with conflicts of interest. But federal monitoring
is making a comeback under new leadership. BY TIMI IWAYEMI
Kuttner on TAP
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**** Is the Good Economic News Good for Biden?
Yes, if the president plays it astutely. But other factors could matter
more.
Thursday's report from the Commerce Department displayed an
exceptionally good economy
.
The economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the last quarter of
2023, while core inflation, at just 1.7 percent, was actually below the
Fed's 2 percent target. The economy added nearly half a million jobs
in the quarter, wage growth remains positive, and consumer spending is
up.
The index of consumer confidence soared
29 percent in the past two months, the largest such increase since
December 1991. All of this means that the Federal Reserve, which meets
next week to decide its next steps, is likely to stick to its plan to
cut rates three times this year. It just doesn't get much better.
But can President Biden reap the political credit he deserves, come
November? As pollster Stan Greenberg has pointed out
,
it's a mistake to keep harping on how great the economy is, since
it's only marginally better for most working families. What Biden
needs to do is make the election future-oriented-talk about how much
more needs to be done, could be done in a second Biden term.
"Soft landing" is one of the most dismal metaphors ever devised by
economists. They, and their media mimics, use it to mean that we managed
to get rid of inflation without resorting to unemployment. That's to
Biden's credit. He ignored recession-mongers like economists Larry
Summers and Jason Furman, who have now given up their perverse advice.
But the economy doesn't need a soft landing, in the manner of, say,
Alaska Airlines, that merely averts disaster. It needs a strong
takeoff-even better jobs, wage growth, and more help for working
families. Biden needs to emphasize that.
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This week's endorsement of Biden by the UAW suggests the kind of help
he will get from a resurgent labor movement. The best Biden "surrogates"
in the campaign are working-class people and leaders
.
And Biden is at his best when he gives speeches like the powerful one he
gave to the UAW, in coherent contrast to Trump's rants.
The New Hampshire primary also included some cause for optimism. Yes,
Trump beat Haley by 11 points. But a majority of women, along with a
majority of independents, voted for Haley. Fully 77 percent of Haley
voters said they'd vote for Biden
if Trump were the nominee. In about half the remaining primaries,
independents can choose to vote in the GOP primary.
The longer Haley stays in, the more she will remind voters of Trump's
deepening dementia, and the more she and Trump will argue about policy
divisions that play to Democratic strengths (cutting Social Security,
banning most abortion).
Biden has plenty of other policy challenges. The border is a mess, and
Republicans, egged on by Trump, are cynically planning to block a
bipartisan deal agreed to by Senate leaders. If Biden wants voters to
focus on the good economic news, he will have to do something about the
bad news that keeps piling up in the Middle East and in Ukraine.
The election is more than nine months away. Things will likely be
different in these two foreign wars by then. It's up to Biden to make
different mean better.
~ ROBERT KUTTNER
Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter
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