What’s Standing in the Way of a Two-State Solution

The United States has pushed for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to commit to a Palestinian state once the Israel-Hamas war ends. Last Friday, he publicly said no.

According to RAND's Raphael Cohen, one key reason for this is that, in Netanyahu's view, Israel's 2005 withdrawal from Gaza gave Hamas a sanctuary to plan, train for, and ultimately launch its October 7 attack. Moving toward a two-state solution now would only compound this problem and increase the risk of another attack.

However, opposition to a Palestinian state stretches well beyond Netanyahu's office. There are practical challenges, including demarcating airspace rights and water—not to mention relocating the 700,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Further, support for a two-state solution among average Israelis has been declining for a decade.

This leaves the United States with few levers to pull. The best path forward may be to “start small,” Cohen says. American pressure might help convince Netanyahu that planning for the war's end and rebuilding Gaza can help guarantee Israel's security. “Done right, reconstruction could foster the mutual trust necessary for a more lasting political settlement.”