From Georgia Wiltshire <[email protected]>
Subject Resignations, Rwanda and that Record Swing
Date January 20, 2024 9:06 AM
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Dear John,



It’s been business as usual in Westminster this week, with resignations aplenty, inflation rising and lucky for us another car-crash interview from a Tory MP to include in our new cringe column below - we knew we could count on the Government for something!



Beyond Westminster, representatives from both sides of the House travelled to Davos this week for the World Economic Forum, including Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron who rubbed shoulders with the new Argentine PM Milei <[link removed]>.



Meanwhile back at No.10, Sunak had yet another Tory rebellion on his hands over the Rwanda vote, only for the majority of them to end up backing the bill after all. At this point you’d think he’d want to call a General Election just to save himself the ag…



Success for Sunak?







On Wednesday evening, Sunak experienced a fleeting moment of success with his human-rights breaching Rwanda bill <[link removed]> passing in the House of Commons. 



Despite Tory Rebels such as Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith talking the talk, even going so far as to resign from their positions as Deputy Conservative Party Chairs, unsurprisingly, they failed to walk the walk, with Anderson abstaining due to Labour MPs heckling him in the lobby <[link removed]>… and Clarke-Smith voting in favour. 



Nevertheless, 11 MPs on the hard right of the party, including Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick and Miriam Cates stuck to their word by voting against the bill, believing that it was not yet legally robust enough to succeed. 



So what happens next? Well, Sunak is still facing an uphill battle as the bill enters the House of Lords where it is expected to face stiff opposition from peers worried about the Bill's apparent aim to skirt international law.



In terms of his position as PM and Conservative Leader, he seems weaker than ever, especially following his performance at PMQs this week where he failed to deny claims that the Home Office had lost contact with more than 4000 individuals who they plan to deport to Rwanda. So on second thoughts, perhaps we were a bit premature calling this a success for Sunak.



Labour landslide & that record swing







Last weekend The Telegraph <[link removed]>published a YouGov survey declaring that the Conservatives are set for a 1997 style wipe out at the next General Election, retaining just 169 seats as Labour sweeps to power with 385. 



Interestingly, the survey was funded by a group of Conservative donors called the Conservative Britain Alliance, working alongside Lord Frost. I couldn’t possibly comment on the motives behind them putting such a poll into the field, but when we consider what we know from both our own polling <[link removed]>, and many others, it is the Don’t Know voters who will decide the next election, out of the ‘don’t knows’, 38% previously voted for the Tories and only 11% voted Labour, and so a Labour victory is not a given. 



Later in the week, research <[link removed]> on the new constituency boundary changes undertaken for the BBC, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association determined that Labour needs a national swing of 12.7% to win with just a small majority, considerably higher than the 10.2% achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 - this alone reaffirms that the path to No.10 for Labour is filled with many hurdles, despite what some may report.



It also reaffirms the crucial role tactical voting will play at the next election, which is why we need your help to reach as many people as possible in marginal constituencies with our tactical voting site getvoting.org <[link removed]>, even £5 would help, so if you can, do consider donating to our election crowdfunder here <[link removed]>. 



Brexit Corner











U-turn for EU settlement scheme



Yet another Government U-Turn, and yet another example of the Government’s mishandling of Brexit. The Home Office has reversed its decision made in August last year that barred EU citizens who were living in the UK pre-Brexit from making late applications on the grounds of ‘lack of awareness’. <[link removed]>, as reported in The Guardian <[link removed]>. 



With a lack of explicit guidance from the Home Office, it isn’t hard to imagine the difficulty faced by EU citizens <[link removed]> who have lived in the UK since  before Brexit  who have a lifelong right to remain here under the Brexit withdrawal agreement. That’s even before we mention Brits in the EU.



As we at Best for Britain have advocated for some time, the next Government must go further to implement a UK-EU visa system that works for the UK.  Read more here. <[link removed]>



Dallying in Davos



It wasn't only Lord Cameron frolicking in the Swiss Alps this week, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves were also in attendance at the World Economic Forum to outline their plans to the international business community. 



Reeves outlined Labour's plans to restore Britain’s reputation as a place to do business <[link removed]>, outlining that private sector investment is a major component of Labour’s growth strategy, the Shadow Chancellor even made a jab at Hunt <[link removed]> for arriving two days after her.



When Hunt finally arrived, he hinted about his plans to make further tax cuts <[link removed]>, which he claims will encourage the economy to grow. Where have we heard that before?  <[link removed]>



The Lib Dems were quick to call Hunt out stating that, “People have been left poorer by years of economic mismanagement under this government, and none of Jeremy Hunt's vague promises can change that fact.” - and they aren’t wrong. 



😬 Cringe Column 😬



Tomlinson Terror



In what can only be described as an absolute car-crash of an interview <[link removed]>, Tory Minister Michael Tomlinson had a wonderful time with Kay Burley on Sky News this week, where she quizzed him on his favourite football team. 



If you can bear the cringe, it’s well worth a watch. 



Thérèse trips up



During a debate on the Rwanda Bill <[link removed]>, Thérèse Coffey’s best efforts to humiliate those on the opposing bench backfired, when she made an enormous geographical blunder much to the amusement of Shadow Home Sec Yvette Cooper. 



Perhaps you should spend this weekend brushing up on your map skills Thérèse!



And on that amusing note, that’s it for this week’s Weekend Wire. 



Have a great weekend!



Best wishes, 

Georgia Wiltshire

Development Manager

Best for Britain



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