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** Trump's Iowa Victory
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To no one's ([link removed]) surprise, former President Donald Trump handily won the Iowa GOP caucuses -- forcing two more Republicans ([link removed]) to suspend their campaigns before the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire on Jan. 23.

Trump, the clear front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, spoke to supporters after his victory. As Deputy Managing Editor Robert Farley and Staff Writer D'Angelo Gore write, Trump twisted some facts on terrorism, mail-in voting and even how many times he won the Iowa caucuses since first running for president in 2016.

When talking about terrorism and a travel ban he ordered, Trump falsely claimed that during his presidency “we had no terror” in the U.S. There were several acts of terrorism that were perpetrated by foreign-born individuals while Trump was president.

Trump also wrongly claimed that a commission co-chaired by former President Jimmy Carter in 2005 concluded, “once you have mail-in ballots, you have crooked elections.” The commission warned about the increased risk of fraud, but suggested measures to lessen that risk. Carter is an advocate for mail-in voting.

He also incorrectly claimed that this was “the third time” he’d won the Iowa caucus. This was only Trump’s second win, and the first when he faced a serious challenge. He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2016, although Trump -- in a moment of foreshadowing -- falsely claimed that Cruz stole the election.

For more, read "FactChecking Trump’s Iowa Victory Speech ([link removed]) ."
HOW WE KNOW
When fact-checking former President Donald Trump's claim that “we had no terror” in the U.S. during his presidency, Staff Writer D'Angelo Gore used a 2023 report ([link removed] 958_appendix_update.pdf) on terrorism and immigration by Alex Nowrasteh ([link removed]) of the libertarian Cato Institute. For years, Nowrasteh has been producing these reports, which we have frequently cited ([link removed]) . The report covers foreign-born individuals who were responsible for terrorist acts or plots since Jan. 1, 1975.
FEATURED FACT
According to a survey conducted by the Annenberg Public Policy Center, FactCheck.org’s parent organization, over time more and more Americans have come to incorrectly believe that the COVID-19 vaccines have killed large numbers of people. In August 2023, for example, 34% of respondents said it was probably or definitely true that the COVID-19 vaccines had killed thousands of people in the U.S., up from 22% in June 2021. Read more ([link removed]) .
WORTHY OF NOTE
The Vaccine Education Center ([link removed]) at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia will feature SciCheck's work correcting misinformation and disinformation about vaccines in its newsletter, beginning this month.

The monthly Vaccine Update newsletter ([link removed]) goes to medical professionals. The VEC team also publishes a monthly newsletter for the public called Parents PACK ([link removed]) , which stands for Possessing, Accessing and Communicating Knowledge about vaccines. (Click on the links to sign up.)

The SciCheck team is headed up by Science Editor Jessica McDonald and includes Staff Writers Catalina Jaramillo and Kate Yandell. Our SciCheck stories are published in both English ([link removed]) and Spanish ([link removed]) .
REPLY ALL

Reader: Is it true that we have experienced extreme weather throughout history starting from 1888? One of the worst blizzards on record battered the East Coast in mid-March of 1888.

FactCheck.org Science Editor Jessica McDonald: It’s true that extreme weather has always occurred, including before 1888. But just because something has always happened doesn’t mean it’s not also changing now -- which is the case with extreme weather in a warming world.

Scientific research ([link removed]) shows that as people have burned more fossil fuels and released more heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, the planet has warmed and this has made certain forms of extreme weather more common and/or more intense. This is most clear for extreme heat, but also applies to heavy rainfall events, drought, tropical cyclones and fire weather.

Some people cite historical examples ([link removed]) of bad storms to argue that climate change isn’t happening. This is similar to the claim that because there are still very cold days (hello, this past week in much of the U.S.!), the planet couldn’t be warming. But these are logical fallacies. Both can be true: extreme events can have happened in the past, and cold days can happen now or in the future, and the Earth can still be, on average, much warmer than before and experiencing more, or more severe, extreme weather as a result.

In terms of blizzards, evidence ([link removed]) suggests ([link removed]) that in the future, while our hotter planet will experience fewer snowstorms overall, the risk of extreme snowfall events will actually stay about the same. This is because more winter storms will end up dropping rain, rather than snow -- but the snowstorms that do happen will be bigger, and dump more snow.


** Wrapping Up
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Here's what else we've got for you this week:
* "Trump Distorts the Facts About His New York Civil Trial ([link removed]) ": Former President Donald Trump made false and questionable claims in a brief press conference on Jan. 11 after the closing arguments in a New York civil fraud trial.
* "Tucker Carlson Video Spreads Falsehoods on COVID-19 Vaccines, WHO Accord ([link removed]) ": COVID-19 vaccines are generally safe and have not killed 17 million people worldwide, contrary to claims amplified by podcaster Bret Weinstein during an interview with Tucker Carlson. Weinstein also inaccurately characterized a proposed World Health Organization pandemic accord and other changes, claiming they aim to take away “personal and national sovereignty.”
* "What We Know About the Brooklyn Synagogue Tunnel ([link removed]) ": Nine men were charged with criminal mischief or attempted criminal mischief and other offenses after New York officials ordered an unauthorized tunnel built adjacent to a Brooklyn synagogue be stabilized. Viral posts made baseless claims that the tunnel was related to child sex trafficking. But the tunnel apparently resulted from a dispute between two sects over synagogue expansion.
* "Kentucky Lawmaker Fixes Incest Bill, But Not Until After It Goes Viral ([link removed]) ": State Rep. Nick Wilson proposed changing Kentucky’s incest law to add a ban on “sexual contact” to the existing ban on “sexual intercourse” between family members, but says he accidentally struck “first cousins” from the list of illegal relationships. Viral posts wrongly claimed Wilson wanted to legalize incest between cousins. He refiled a corrected bill.

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